For those seeking an immediate dip into the critical analysis of last year’s Bruski 150, click this link and I will send you right to the pure dope (we annihilated everybody, I won another FSWA Writer of the Year award and I won just under $30,000 in my high stakes leagues!).

Okay, first off there will be plenty of nerding out in this incredibly nerdy thing we do which is discuss fantasy ranks at insane levels of detail that should all have us questioning our sanity (answer: perfectly fine).

But first I want to quickly acknowledge a few really big pieces of good news before jumping into all of the details and good news packed into the B150 analysis itself. And quickly on that latter point, it was another banner season and the undefeated mark against my old employer goes up to nine seasons but who’s counting right 🙂

Well, that’s actually the whole point of this exercise is to count.

We count so we can be accountable not just for public or product reasons but because that’s exactly how you compete for excellence. You have to dismantle whatever you’re doing piece by piece and put it back together.

Before all of that, some quick good news – I’ve never been so happy with “progress” in my life. Businesswise the talent and character of the team I’m working with is just an amazing thing to be a part of. People whose general goal is to do things with the intention of doing it well, with the right Ethos, are just really healthy to be around. We’ve added some amazing talent with my old pal/boss/industry legend Steve Alexander and new pal/industry legend Rick Kamla. And beyond that this team is so deep with talent both public facing and behind the scenes that I can spend a while shouting them out so I’ll just say … check out the work around here. Join us as we build this beast out.

Other good news is that medically the results in my battle against Thoracic Outlet Syndrome over the past few months have been encouraging, whereas prior to that things were a lot more questionable. And they’re still questionable but the surgery appears to be working slowly and a fairly maniacal approach to PT and medical care in general is helping to win the day. I probably need to write about it more because it’s a pretty crazy story but even with all of the challenges – and that’s a very loaded statement – the collective reaction around here has been to come together and just make a way.

What it means in the day-to-day sense is that I can get more accomplished faster and I can get out in front with content more and that’s really my love of the game in action.

Obviously, progress here after having five to seven years of my life mangled is no joking matter.

The whole ordeal is not without several positive life changing moments that I absolutely appreciate and cherish, but to not have to do all of the things with two arms tied behind my back — it impacts everything and it’s exponential on all levels.

Give me the slightest improvement and I’m going to feel like the Kool-Aid man busting through a brick wall.

To be clear though, throughout all those years the one thing I wasn’t going to give up was the competitive process of analyzing the game on a nightly basis and being ready to have the most calibrated take on anybody and everybody in the league at the drop of a hat. I just feel like the minute you’re not competing like that you’re just going backwards. And one day down the road I’ll decide to hang them up and just draft off of somebody’s list.

But that day isn’t coming anytime soon.

Other good stuff… It was as massive of a year in public high stakes leagues as you’ll ever see. Four of five top three finishes, two titles and just under $30,000 in winnings. Against folks using my rankings against me no less.

I also won another FSWA Writer of the Year award!

Life itself is good… I legitimately love all the work of being a dad and that’s before all of the great non-challenging stuff… What a blessing.

My day-to-day here at SportsEthos is surrounded by the kind of people you would want your kids to learn from. Honest, ethical and supremely talented human beings all in it for the right reasons.

I’m getting healthier, vibes are good, we keep winning.

Okay, enough of the sentimental and off the court stuff (I’ve only been able to talk with you guys for a handful of times the past few seasons and I am excited my apologies)…

…. now it’s time to dissect my own ranks! Let the carving begin!

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General Results

The top line headline is that it was another win for the B150 over my old employer, RotoWorld, pushing that record up to an undefeated 9–0. The margin of victory was right around what it has always been.

One of the top line headlines about the B150 last season was getting massive value where the experience of doing this for nearly 20 years really came into play. Being able to see a handful of Jalen Johnson minutes in the prior season combined with the type of film work that only professionals do was able to result in a sixth and seventh round rank when the best most sites could do was put him in the back end of their late rounds if they had him ranked at all. When Jrue Holiday landed with the Celtics, the low hanging fruit analysis was for everybody to start fading Derrick White and he powered each of our teams all season long. While folks were generally optimistic about Jalen Williams last season, there was all sorts of panic early during a mildly slow start as B150 users calmly bought it all up as I reiterated time after time that he was going to have a third round finish.

Williams’ final 9-cat rank (totals): 35
Williams’ final 9-cat B150 rank (based on totals): 35

As is custom, we won 53-55% of the time straight up and the implied probability that our pick was better than their pick for a given pick is just under two thirds. When we factor in the impact of the picks as described below the wins perform more like 56 to 57%.

Am I happy with this? Of course I’m not. We typically want to be in the 55 to 59% range and much better once we factor in impact. Still, it truly was an amazing season and I tip my cap to RotoWorld for doing better than most out there.

Of course, this is why I pride myself on having the most brutal self-examination of ranks in the industry today. Anything we don’t hit on we learn from and this deeper analysis allows us to really absorb every side of the coin and understand the trends, and therefore where the publics are going to take the market next season … and then we just keep advancing the corporate knowledge season after season.

Regardless, pushing my record to 9-0 against my old stomping grounds at RotoWorld is something I have to be happy about knowing that they largely set the market, at least until the B150 gets released.

Now, let’s get deeper into the analysis!

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The Bruski 150 Evaluation Process

In a truly grueling and inane exercise, we look at the Bruski 150 to find out how we did in a few different lights but ultimately come up with some easy head-to-head analysis of the B150 ranks vs. Rotoworld’s ranks. We also attempt to add some deeper meaning and value to the analysis by weighting ranking wins and losses by the impact they have, which has both qualitative and quantitative evaluations. In each of these ranking analysis I welcome anybody to offer a counterpoint, but the key for making this fair and worthwhile is to be brutally honest with the assessments (which also keeps me well on the side of fair so I can just let this fly and know it’s legit).

What we’re looking to determine is which rank was the smarter rank, accounting for the totality of the situation.

The first and broadest analysis is a rank-by-rank assessment which determines an overall record between the two sites. After all, each of the ranks matter in some context so zooming out to see what the aggregate win-loss records are is a good way to show an overall strength of ranks. It also keeps a few good or bad ranks from swinging the analysis.

Then we look at the ranks while accounting for how important a given prediction was. First we do this by assigning an impact rating. Then when looking at the ranks in relation to ADP, we’re looking for how likely or unlikely was a site’s followers to get the good (or bad) pick, which we end displaying on the graphic below by color (it’s just easier to read that way). Therefore, we call that the color rating.

We multiply the impact rating with the color rating to create a spectrum of outcomes that are a dart throw at emulating year-long profit and loss scenarios, which are the essence of preseason rankings.

So in summary:

• Head-to-Head win/loss totals for the aggregate picture
• Impact Ratings give a more quantitative weighting for predictions and Color Ratings allow for ADP, rank differences and common sense to create a qualitative rating for predictions.
• To create this Impact Score we have a simple scoring system that multiplies these two ratings together and then aggregates the data set

Diving Deeper Into the Evaluation

COLOR RATINGS

The color schemes are:

• Dark Green (massive win involving a player that performed very well relative to ADP and/or the other site, easily had opportunity to draft/avoid that player)
• Green (a general rankings win, better positioned to draft or miss a player who over/under performed, when evaluating both sites and ADP)
• Yellow (painful loss, rankings prediction put drafters in likely position to move the needle backward with their team)
• Red (brutal loss, rankings prediction hurt drafters in significant ways, missing the mark badly when chance wasn’t a factor)

Another way to look at it might be:

• Dark Green (you did a real good thing)
• Green (you beat the other site/ADP in a way that wasn’t totally negligible)
• Yellow (your rank moved the needle backwards for squads)
• Red (you did a real bad thing)

How they get scored:

• Dark Green (+4)
• Green (+2)
• No Color (1)
• Yellow (-2)
• Red (-4)

Not all prediction wins are created equally. Some are dumb luck and have massive impact, which isn’t the sign of a good prediction, and other great predictions have smaller impacts but deserve more credit. If there was an uncontrollable event not tied to obvious injury risk, that may not get an assessment. In cases where a player without known injury risk is performing as a win and then bad luck hits, nine times out of 10 that’s going to result in a win for the better predictor there (rather than strict allegiance to final rank).

On this front we want to look at the nature of injuries. Were they something that we could have known about? Were they factored into the draft situation as a risk-reward play? If a player got extremely lucky due to unforeseen injuries ahead of him, we’re not trying to reward or punish predictions as much as we would a prediction that’s based on known variables — one that reflects greater understanding of stat sets, usage rates and the like.

Mix that all up and then everything gets weighed out in context, but at its core these color ranks are measuring how much gain and loss occurred in terms of pure value.

Each rank and evaluation is given the type of scrutiny you’d want to have if you could turn back time and do it all over again.

As we go further down in the draft, when player values start to bunch up, the grading loosens up a tiny bit and color grades won’t reward mild differences. At the same time a sleeper that can crawl up into early round value would get rated as a high impact.

Again, the key to this is to be brutally harsh with myself and give my competition benefit of the doubt when evaluating these predictions.

It’s entirely possible I have screwed up on a piece of logic in an example in an attempt to be expedient. I’m pretty sure any shifting results will be within a reasonable margin of error and not take away from the findings.

If you see anything hugely off, just let me know and I’m happy to make adjustments.

IMPACT ANALYSIS

The impact analysis seeks to determine whether the prediction put the drafter in the position for a gain, avoid a loss and to what degree — and then it aggregates that for the entire prediction set.

As for the impact analysis itself, it is also qualitative to some degree but it does trend toward ‘just the facts.’ It’s qualitative in the sense that if a prediction win didn’t beat ADP, that’s not a very impactful play, which happens when ADP actually wins out (it happens!). From there, we’re measuring how much distance was there between the predictions and the results.

That scale from 1-5 — it’s really just 1-4 as a grade of 5 is for Hall of Fame level needle-movers that occur maybe once in a season if they occur at all. Let’s look at the scale:

5: Historical result
4: Prediction leads to extremely important high-end production, or a large number of rounds in the ballpark of a half-draft or greater of increased (or decreased) value for their fantasy GM
3: Prediction leads (or loses) very important high-end production, or results in gaining or losing a significant number of rounds of value (in the 4-8 range depending on how early or late the player in question was drafted)
2: Prediction secures substantial increased (or decreased) value for their fantasy GM (2-4 rounds worth of value dependent upon the facts)
1: A basic head-to-head win that doesn’t meet the criteria above is a 1

No players from the last two years received the fabled ‘5.’ Only one player got a 5 a few seasons ago and that was James Harden who nearly lapped the entire field in 8-cat.

SOME QUICK HITS PLAYER TALK

To keep this section from being all over the place it’s split into the players that did well and the players that did not, with some brief commentary about how it all played out.

DID WELL

*These are players that did well, not always with respect to the B150, but in general

Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stayed at 1 and 2 and SGA continued to close the gap. Victor Wembanyama was possibly the story of the season as he catapulted up the rankings with absurd numbers. Anthony Davis and Lebron James stayed healthy as did Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to create a massive win for folks who leaned into the risk. Domantas Sabonis rumbled to another top 10 finish. Chet Holmgren mirrored the rookie of the year discussion and was an amazing fantasy story overshadowed by Wemby. Kevin Durant was our security blanket as a pick in the six to 12 range that finished six or seven. Fred VanFleet was a solid second round value and helped change the culture in Houston. B150 squads regularly drafted James Harden in the third, fourth and fifth rounds to enjoy a top 25 finish. Tyrese Maxey enjoyed his coming out party with a top 25 finish. As discussed previously we were drafting Derrick White around 80 in competitive leagues and I had him on just about every one of 30 squads he dropped in a top 25 finish. Jalen Johnson was ours and nobody else’s. Others tried to claim him but there is no award for calling somebody a late round guy when the industry’s preeminent ranks list has him in the sixth and seventh rounds. Donte DiVincenzo became a poor man’s Steph Curry with a top 30 finish. Brook Lopez was great again. Austin Reaves beat expectations playing on a public Los Angeles Lakers squad. Scottie Barnes was going berserk before his season ended early. Bogdan Bogdanovic stepped into wide-open spaces for Atlanta and stayed healthy for a fourth-round finish. Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton didn’t meet their ADP but had fine seasons nonetheless. Jarrett Allen and D’Angelo Russell beat the fade for third-round finishes. Daniel Gafford cashed in a few seasons after some too early B150 hype with a fourth-round finish. Everybody else faded Herb Jones and we cashed in with a top 40 to 50 finish. Grayson Allen was great and finished in the same range. As mentioned, we had Jalen Williams multiple rounds ahead of everybody and correctly predicted his third round finish. Jalen Duren caught the injury bug but was otherwise on track for a great season. Outside of the injury late in the season Malik Monk was on all of our teams and was rock solid for where he was drafted.

DID NOT DO WELL

*These are players that did not do well, not necessarily with respect to the B150, but in general

LaMelo Ball did it again. Joel Embiid got off to a fast start and then the typical concerns crushed it all. We finally missed on Mikal Bridges. Trae Young was a drag for fantasy GMs all season. Jaren Jackson was the last man standing in Memphis and it didn’t go great. In fact, much like with Young and Bridges it went terrible. Jimmy Butler wasn’t allowed on the old man banana boat. Lauri Markkanen disappeared as expected down the stretch and Cade Cunningham only played in 62 games. Jordan Poole was overhyped and overdrafted. Josh Giddey had a rough season on and off the floor. Brandon Ingram’s slide continued. DeAndre Ayton whiffed on yet another opportunity. Paul Reed somehow finished close to his B150 rank but it was very ugly. Bradley Beal landed on some of our teams and it was also ugly. Draymond Green put his career at a major crossroads by not being able to keep his ego in check. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and most of the Grizzlies had nightmare seasons. OG Anunoby slid mightily. Bruce Brown had an under the radar knee injury that sunk his ranking. Onyeka Okongwu didn’t have his long-awaited breakout. Scoot Henderson was predictably inefficient. Zach LaVine’s injury concerns hit right away. Mark Williams was doubtful all season. As it would turn out the Ben Simmons can hit threes and stay on the court stories missed yet again.

The Most Impactful Players

Impact Ratings, if you forgot from above, range from 1-5 with 5 being historical and 1-4 being the only scores issued in the past two years. Again, the scale looks like:

5: Historical result
4: Secured (or lost) extremely important high-end production or a large number of rounds of increased (or decreased) value for their fantasy GM
3: To get a 3 the prediction needed to secure (or lose) very important high-end production or significant increased (or decreased) value for their fantasy GM
2: Securing substantial increased (or decreased) value for their fantasy GM
1: A basic head-to-head win that doesn’t meet the criteria above is a 1

Finally, Here are the Receipts

***CLICK THE IMAGE TO CHECK IT OUT***