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The Panthers clawed their way to 8-9, snuck into the playoffs and gave thier fans a slimmer of hope of better things to come, but was it a mirage? The offense remains stuck in the mud, scoring 18.3 PPG (27th) and finishing 19th or worse in FPPG at all skill positions. The o-line is solid, but more more effective run-blocking than pass-blocking (25th vs. 9th) and forced to start a QB who might not be destined as a starter. They didn’t stand out anywhere last season, finishing 27th in rushing TDs, 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards-per-pass and 27th in total yards. They tried to bolter the o-line in the draft and that should be a strength this season which always a great place to create a foundation, but there will always be limitations on this team as long as Bryce Young is under center. He hit career highs last season in passing yards 3,011, TD passes (23) and completion percentage (63.6%), but he’s been between the QB19-23 in his three seasons and it doesn’t look like he can break through the glass ceiling. He doesn’t quite run enough to be viable for fantasy and his volatility week-to-week can drive a GM crazy, even if you are starting him in Super Flex leagues. You don’t have to be great a QB to be successful in the NFL and the good news is CAR finally has the supporting parts to prop him up. Sophomore WR Tetairoa McMillan is the real deal and finished as the WR16 despite only scoring in one of the first 10 games. The future is as bright as any young WR in the NFL for the sophomore, but he needs a QB who can get him the ball in stride. McMillan had a 23% target share and massive 41% air yards share despite operating in a run-heavy offense (46-54 run/pass split). With a different QB, he would be a must-draft player, but as a top-15 WR, it remains to be seen how high his ceiling is. He won’t have a bad a season and 1000 yards is a mortal lock considering the lack of other high-usage players on the roster. I don’t like drafting players where they will end up without any room to out perform their ADP. If anything, McMillan and Emeka Egbuka should be flipped.
The run game should be strong again, but losing Rico Dowdle hurts especially considering Chubba Hubbard took a backseat after his breakout two seasons ago (RB41 compared to RB 15). There is hope that phenom Jonathan Brooks can finally get healthy and give this offense a boost, but as the RB42, he’s a pure lottery ticket considering he’s played three games in two seasons and never had more than 20 yards in any of them. Regardless, he’s got massive potential and if he has a good summer, he could start to shoot up the draft boards. At this point, it’s pure conjecture and even if he starts the season healthy, the odds he finishes that way is about a million to one.
Player most likely to beat ADP: RB Chuba Hubbard (ADP 74, RB28)
Hopefully Hubbard is still the same guy who put up a top-15 RB season two seasons ago. With a re-stocked o-line, less competition for touches and a run-heavy approach, Hubbard should be safe to plod his way to a top-30 finish. I don’t love the pick since Hubbard isn’t explosive, but I don’t trust Brooks to stay healthy.
Player most likely to fade based on ADP: WR Tetairoa McMillan (ADP 28, WR13)
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I have been crazy about fantasy sports even before I knew what it was. Some people use stats as a tool and some use the eye test. I like to believe I have the perfect blend of both and that extra special spider sense that separates me from the herd. I have been nominated for one FSWA Football Article of the Year award and am just getting started. My only fear is that I will become too good at fantasy football and have to retire early like Michael Jordan. You won’t see me leave my house without at least one of my (four) dogs and if you are lucky enough, you will catch me cruising top-down with all four in tow.
