Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview for the 26-27 Fantasy Football Season

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    The Steelers have been mired in mediocrity for a decade and as a result they have ended the Mike Tomlin era and started the Mike McCarthy one.  I was never sold on Tomlin as a QB to lead you to the Super Bowl, but he’s one of the best coaches in modern football history to make sure you stay over .500.  McCarthy is neither and he is the biggest threat to the Steelers rebuild collapsing on itself and burning down everything with it.  That’s the bad news, the good news is that this is the best offense PIT has had since Antonio Brown wasn’t crazy and Big Ben was mobile.  The one problem that could derail everything is Aaron Rodgers, who is returning for one last ride.  Rodgers wasn’t terrible last season, but the offense was the problem.  They were 25th in total yards, 28th in rushing attempts, 26th in first downs, but 15th in points scored.  They ran the 4th fewest plays in the league and with a dink-and-dunk offense, that’s just not a viable offensive strategy.  They were 24th in FPPG at QB and 28th at WR, but they have a top-five o-line and added a borderline WR1 in Michael Pittman.  They essentially exchanged Kenneth Gainwell for Rico Dowdle, which is probably a lateral move, but with Jaylen Warren still there, they have the making of an elite RB duo as long as they commit to running the ball.  They had a 41/59 run/pass split last season, but while it was pass-heavy, they used the RBs heavily in the passing game (25% or targets went to RBs).  With two semi-elite RBs and two elite WRs, the offense finally has a foundation to build around a reliable o-line.  I would all-in on this team if I believed in Rodgers.  He can still sling it, but he needs the offense to support him rather than before when he could support an entire offense.  The two RBs are going in the top-30 at the position and it’s going to be a coin flip which emerges as they will surely start in a timeshare.  Last season the RBs were 8th in FPPG, while Warren and Gainwell both had top-20 seasons.  I’m fine betting on either because if one gets hurt, the upside becomes insanely valuable and likely.

    The WRs haven’t been this good since Brown and Emanuel Sanders/JuJu Smith-Shuster.  Nothing will top peak Brown, but Metcalf and Pittman is a formidable combo.  Metcalf has been between the WR20-35 the last three seasons, so he is who is now and the ceiling no longer exists.  He had the fewest targets and yards of his career last season and adding Pittman won’t help his volume.  Pittman was volatile like every Colt was last season, but he’s an elite downfield talent who is great at scoring TDs and Rodgers might be the best QB he has ever had.  Pittman scored six TDs in the first eight games and then only scored once again all season.  I do like this offense despite hating McCarthy and not trusting Rodgers and Pittman’s ADP of a WR43 seems like the most mispriced value in all of fantasy.  Metcalf is a beast, but not a volume-heavy one and Pittman has no other threats to take targets.  He was the WR22 in almost half of a season and he’s being drafted at his worst case scenario instead of his floor or ceiling.  WR is deep this season, but not that deep and Pittman is a must-draft player at this current ADP.

    Player most likely to beat ADP: Michael Pittman  (ADP 101, WR43)

    The worst finish Pittman has had in the last five years is the WR41 and his second-worst in the WR20 and it’s not like he’s had elite QBs.  This ADP makes no sense and I’m sure it will self-correct by the end of Summer.

    Player most likely to fade based on ADP: Jaylen Warren (ADP 70, RB27)

    I just like Rico Dowdle more than Warren and while Warren was the RB16 last season, I expect Dowdle to take more of the rushes and Warren to pivot back to being more of a receiving back. I like Warren, but Dowdle should be the clear RB1 in Week 1.

    Late-round Flier that could blow up: None

     

     

    Writer’s Season Win Prediction: 8-9

    The o-line was a strength, but might slide a bit, but it should still be a force.  The Steelers should be more balanced this season and the first step of that is handing the ball of to Dowdle.  Dowdle is going as the RB30, but his Week 5/6 RB1/2 finish looms large of what he can do when fully unleashed.  Dowdle had another RB2 finish in Week 9, but otherwise he was routinely outside the top-20.  I trust Dowdle a lot and really like him two season’s ago with DAL.  He’s not much of a dual-threat back and Warren will clearly thrive in that role, but it’s clear the two rushing TDs in DAL were an aberration and the six rushing TDs last season in CAR is more indicative of his scoring prowess.  His b2b campaigns of 4.6 YPC is solid and could easily improve behind a stronger o-line.  Dowdle’s overall stats are midleading because once he started to take over from Chuba Hubbard,  Weeks 5-18, Dowdle averaged 18.6 touches and 87.7 total yards as the RB10 in fantasy points per game.  A top-10 finish is optimistic, but I see him more of a top-15 option going for a top-30 price, which is all upside in my opinion.


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