Baltimore Ravens Team Preview for the 26-27 Fantasy Football Season

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    The Baltimore Ravens looked like they had finally put it all together and were not just a paper tiger. They had followed the blueprint of being dominant in the regular season only to fade in the playoffs.  With an unstoppable RB, an MVP QB and a defense that inspires fear, the Ravens seemed inevitable until of course football happened.  The defense got banged up early and had to crawl out of a 1-5 hole, finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs.  The AFC won’t get that lucky again, but teams do run out of steam and with Derrick Henry well past the age cliff and Lamar Jackson getting closer each season, it’s not crazy to wonder if this team peaked.  They fired John Harbaugh, brought in Jesse Minter and are trying to a refit while keeping the core the same.  They also moved on from Isaiah Likely, which is a move I hate unless you are a Giants fan.  They focused on retooling through the draft, taking a guard in the first round and two WRs in the first four.  The Ravens might have made a solid coaching change and maybe they hit one of Ja’Kobe Lane or Elijah Sarratt at WR, but if Henry looks old or Lamar Jackson can’t stay healthy, none of it matters.  The biggest fall from grace from last season was BAL going from 1st in FPPG at QB to 22nd.  Jackson looked fine to start the season with three straight top-five finishes and then never had another one again.  At 29 he should still be in his prime and even he takes a step back from running (he had 915 yards two seasons ago and 1200 as a sophomore), his ability to throw TDs and keep defenses off-kilter is what separates him from nearly every other QB.  The fantasy QB hierarchy is Josh Allen at the top and then everyone else.  Jackson might have the second tier all to himself, but he still needs to prove it as he’s finished outside the top-12 in three of the last five seasons.   Before anything else, you have to decide if you trust Jackson or now and in Super Flex leagues, it comes down to taking him second overall or not.  He’s going five picks later than Allen, which seems crazy considering Allen is QB1 or QB2 every season and Jackson has way more volatility.  The upside remains there, but you can’t draft Jackson in the third round as it stands.

    As risky as Jackson is, Henry might be even more of a time bomb.  Henry might be like LeBron James and immune to Father Time as he was the RB8 at 32 years old and still had one of the best fantasy seasons of his career.  The stats might look the same, but the eye test told a different story as Henry is entering a different portion of his career, but can he still be a top-15 back or will the falloff be precipitous?  Betting on one last ride is one of the biggest gambles in fantasy and more often than not, I’ve held on too long rather than get off early.  Henry will cost a top-30 pick this season and while I will take him over Josh Jacobs, Henry vs. the rookie Jeremiyah Love is going to be a great litmus test for fantasy.  The Ravens o-line fell off a bit last season, they still finished 11th and should be better again this season despite losing C Tyler Linderbaum.  I historically have loved drafting BAL skill players as they have always score plenty of points (11th last season at 24.9) and routinely finish high at FPPG at QB/RB/TE.  I don’t think I can jump on the ride this season as the TE position might now be a weakness, the RB is among the oldest in the league and QB is more of a coin flip than a sure thing.

     

    Player most likely to beat ADP: Zay Flowers (ADP 42, WR19)

    My favorite stat from last season was the Flowers was the WR1 in Week 1 and Week 17, unfortunately he only had two TDs between those two weeks and he was again among the more frustrating players in fantasy.  This time it might not be his fault.  He was very consistent and was a lock for about six receptions for 60 yards, which established a very high floor and it’s easy to blame Lamar Jackson and the passing offense for his lack of ceiling. The offense scored nearly 100 points fewer than two seasons ago.

    Player most likely to fade based on ADP: Lamar Jackson (ADP 31, QB2)

    It’s simply about math at this point and what are the chances Jackson posts a top-two fantasy season.  It’s probably about 60% and a bounce-back is very likely, but I’m not taking the odds with that ADP.  Jackson could be great, but Henry falls off and none of the rookie WRs hit.  One too many variables for me to bet on Jackson.

    Late-round Flier that could blow up: Ja’Kobi Lane (ADp 233, WR86)

    Just because I don’t bet on Jackson with a top-30 ADP doesn’t mean I don’t wan tot bet on the passing offense as a whole.  Jackson threw 42 TD passes two seasons ago and almost all of those would be up for grabs this season.  Why not take a shot on Lane as the deep-threat on one what of the most explosives offenses in fantasy.


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