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June 16, 2025, 1:44 pmLast Updated on June 17, 2025 7:58 am by André Lemos | Published: June 16, 2025
The 2024 Atlanta Falcons will be remembered most for the two-month period where they signed a new franchise quarterback in Kirk Cousins only to draft a new franchise quarterback in Michael Penix. Heading into 2025, the Falcons are Penix’s team, and he’s flanked by two of the alphas at the major fantasy football positions, RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London. With supporting cast members like WR Darnell Mooney, RB Tyler Allgeier, and the mercurial TE Kyle Pitts, Penix has the requisite weaponry to make the Falcons one of the league’s better fantasy offenses. Just how ready Penix is in year two will determine the heights to which this offense will soar.
Player most likely to beat ADP: WR Darnell Mooney (ADP 109, WR50)
Mooney was an obvious value pick in drafts last year when he left Chicago to sign with the Falcons, and he finished as the WR31 overall and WR36 in points per game. This year, he’s again going way too late. Mooney lacks a ton of high-end upside, but as long as he’s on the field, he’s the most boring WR35 you can imagine. Many options that will inevitably be taken ahead of him have a higher chance of finishing as a top-24 WR, but Mooney carries far less risk and should easily outperform his WR50 ADP.
Player most likely to fade based on ADP: RB Bijan Robinson (ADP 2, RB1)
This feels a bit like cheating, since there’s no way for Robinson to truly beat his ADP. At the top of drafts this year, there’s a fairly clear tier of three wide receivers (Ja’marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb) and three running backs (Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs). Among that group of six, I don’t feel passionately that Robinson is clearly second-best, only behind Chase. He was only the RB4 last season, which leads me to believe he’s a good bet to finish a couple spots lower than No. 2 overall. That doesn’t even account for inevitable surprises outside of the top six. Robinson throughly deserves to go in the top-half of the first round, but I prefer others at No. 2.
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