April 30, 2023, 5:54 am
There’s a lot to monitor today with the weather possibly impacting multiple games. I’m operating off the assumption that the Braves-Mets game will not happen. I’m hoping it does not, as that would force me to use most of my DK salary on Spencer Strider. We had 11 home runs in Giants-Padres last night, which ended 11-16. That’s one to watch today as they continue their matchup at the Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú in Mexico City, which sits 2,120 ft higher than Coors field.
This is for the 4/30 10:35 AM PST slate on DraftKings.
Under 20.5 Runs Giants @ Padres (Mexico City)
Not often you see a line and say to yourself, “is this real?” I know they scored 27 runs yesterday, but the pitchers today will be much more prepared than yesterday’s starters. Joe Musgrove was only in his second game back. Sean Manaea entered the game with a 6.61 ERA. Yu Darvish has given up only 1 run in 3 out of 4 starts this year. Alex Cobb has a 1.91 ERA on the season and should keep the ball on the ground more than the Giants pitchers were able to yesterday.
Texas Rangers ML @ +102
I’m not sure why the Yankees are favored in this spot. Aaron Judge just got an MRI and is out at least through this weekend. The lineups they’re putting out are just not that threatening. Nathan Eovaldi handled them with ease and there’s nothing to indicate they will perform any better today. Nestor Cortes is on the mound, but the Twins got to him his last start. This Rangers team has a lot of dangerous hitters and they’re at home.
DFS Pillar Plays:
The Yankees got 3-hit yesterday by Nathan Eovaldi, who pitched a CG shutout. They’re hurt right now and they’ve been struggling to put runs on the board. Pérez was good in his last start, going 6 ⅓. He should be able to take advantage of the Yankees’ inexperienced hitters.
Mateo is on a 6-game hit streak and is one of the hottest hitters in the league. In the first game of a doubleheader yesterday, he hit a 3-run HR. It should’ve been his second 3-run shot of the game, if not for pulling a ball a few feet foul in a previous inning. He has scored 6 runs in his last 5 games and is 3rd in the league in steals, with 10 on the year. He’s the whole package and is having a monster year.
The first-year man from Japan is currently on a 9-game hit streak, with 5 of those being multi-hit games. Yoshida recently was moved up to 2nd in the lineup. He’s going against a fellow rookie in Logan Allen, who was good in his lone start, but Yoshida has been locked in of late and that should continue at Fenway.
DFS Value Plays (<$3500 Salary):
Paredes has been destroying the White Sox this series. In 3 games, he’s 7-14 with 5 runs and 7 RBI with an average of 20 FPPG. There’s only 1 HR in there so his value is not solely from power. I really would like to play Chapman or JRam at this position, but Paredes is $2,000 cheaper with the same level of production over the last few games.
The young outfielder from Chicago hit a grand slam yesterday in a 16-1 rout of the Nats and is too hot to ignore. He’s played almost every day in April and has scored over 8 FPPG in each of his last 6 games. Part of that value comes from his SB, of which he has 5 in that time frame. Josiah Gray does scare me, as he was excellent his last start, but I’m going to trust Suwinski, who has a higher OPS than Mike Trout this year.
Duran is batting over .400 since he got called up and is 9-17 in his last 4 games. He’s kind of a boom or bust play, but he does have speed so he’s a threat to steal if he gets on. For this price, he’s worth the risk. If you’re looking for a safer play, go with Whit Merrifield who has been steady and is in this price range.
Position Player Name Salary P Martín Pérez $8,700 P C 1B 2B 3B Isaac Paredes $3,400 SS Jorge Mateo $4,500 OF OF Jack Suwinski $3,400 OF Masataka Yoshida $4,500 REMAINING BUDGET $25,500 for 5 players. Avg Rem/Player $5,100