Risers & Fallers: Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Correa & More

  • With the All Star break starting Monday and the All Star game on Tuesday, I’ve decided to celebrate this week and have nothing but risers. Brandon Nimmo heads the list, on pace for a career year and a big reason for the Mets most recent push. He is joined by a resplendent Carlos Correa, Alec Burleson getting full time at bats, Brent Rooker’s continued growth and a Craig Kimbrel renaissance.

    RISERS

    Brandon Nimmo started the year off a bit slow, as he hit only seven home runs over his first 237 plate appearances, with a 0.214 batting average and a 0.728 on-base plus slugging (OPS). Since the start of June, however, Nimmo has been on a tear. In just 143 plate appearances, he has hit nine home runs, he has a 0.310 batting average, a 0.995 OPS and a wRC+ of 183, as he has been a vital cog in the Mets offensive output as they have made a run at a playoff spot. His hot hitting is supported by his statcast stats, as he ranks in the top ten percent of all hitters in average exit velocity (avgVE) at 92.7 MPH, hard-hit rate at 50.2%, launch angel sweet spot at 39%, walk rate at 12.4% and expected weight on base average (xwOBA) at 0.378. He’s also maintained a near elite barrel rate, at 12.6%, and an extremely good chase rate, of 24.1%. He hit leadoff to start the season, before the Mets made the decision to drop him down to the third spot, then raised him up to second in the order, where he has performed best this season. There are worse spots to be in, than sandwiched between Francisco Lindor and JD Martinez. Though his strikeout rate has risen over the last three season’s, so has his walk rate, both of which constitute the second highest full season rates of his career (by full season, I mean seasons where he played in 140 or more games in the season AND non-covid seasons). He only has three of such seasons so far, but, health willing, this will be his forth. And, when he gets to play in at least 140 games, Nimmo is a star, as he has a WAR of 4.2 or higher in those three previous seasons, plus a 3.3 WAR season when he played in only 92 games. In 86 games so far this season, he is at 3.1 WAR, on pace for his third 5 WAR season and career highs in doubles, home runs, RBI, SB, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and avgEV. Though he missed out on the All Star team, Nimmo has been one of the best fantasy stars so far this year.

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