May 12, 2023, 11:49 am
All eyes will be on Miami today as the Marlins top prospect, Eury Perez, makes his first major league start. We’ve already gotten some memorable pitching debuts this season, and hopefully we’re in for another one. Elsewhere, the ERA leader Sonny Gray takes the mound as does strikeout leader Spencer Strider. We also get the continuation of some contentious matchups with the Padres visiting the Dodgers and the Rays hoping to chase Gerrit Cole off the mound for the second time in a week.
This is for the 5/12 4:05 PM PST slate on DraftKings. As always, make sure to check lineups before first pitch.
Thrive Fantasy Picks
Adley Rutschman over .5 Total Hits
Ronald Acuña Jr.over .5 RBIs + Runs
Yordan Alvarez over .5 Total Hits
Joc Pederson under .5 RBIs + Runs
MacKenzie Gore o5.5 Ks
MacKenzie Gore is only 1 strikeout away from being top-20 (with 1 less start than most) going into tonight’s matchup vs. the Mets. This Mets lineup is still struggling, and Gore has gone over this number in 6 out of his 7 starts. His K/9 is sitting at 11.7 and he should have a long enough leash to get 6+ Ks.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs. San Francisco Giants (+100)
The Diamondbacks have taken some tough losses as of late. The Giants are going with opener John Brebbia, or Alex Wood, depending on if he’s cleared medically. The Diamondbacks are underdogs here at home and will try to get Corbin Carroll going, who got the night off yesterday.
DFS Pillar Plays
I want to play Spencer Strider, but he hasn’t been infallible and at that $12,200 price point, you’re really limiting your options for the rest of your lineup. For 70% of that price, you can get Dustin May, who will more than likely generate, if not exceed, 70% of Strider’s points total. There are a few factors that point to the possible results favoring the cheaper May. May just had his best start of the season against this same Padres lineup, who continue to underperform. He’s given up 3 or less hits in each of his last 3 starts and his stuff was as electric as we’ve seen it so far this year in San Diego. Strider faces the Blue Jays, who have a high-powered lineup and are returning to the Rogers Centre after a night off and a 9-game road trip.
In 3 at-bats in their lone matchup last year, Adolis Garcia drew a walk, homered and hit a double off A’s starter Ken Waldichuk. He has been leading the league in RBIs all year and he’s top 10 in HR. He’s priced cheaper than he has been, which is due to a slow start to the month. That being said, he’s still 94th percentile in HardHit % and is 21st in average EV on the year per Baseball Savant.
The Phillies continue their road trip in the Rocky Mountains, which means friendly confines for this smoldering lineup. Trea Turner is currently on a 10-game hit streak and his recent history in the NL West should make him comfortable here. His success at Coors precedes his time with the Dodgers, as he hit for the cycle there when he was on the Nationals. In 23 games in Colorado, Turner has a .349 BA with 5 homers, 7 doubles and 3 triples.
DFS Value Plays (<$3000 Salary)
We’re going to chalk up the A’s performance last night as a credit to how dominant Nathan Eovaldi was. They were 1-hit until the 7th inning and ended up with only 3 hits on the night. Going into yesterday, JJ Bleday was on a 7-game hit streak with 6 extra base hits in those 7 games. Martin Perez should be an easier matchup for the A’s hitters, as Perez struggled in his last start on the road, not even making it past the 4th inning.
Schmitt’s first major league hit was a HR on Tuesday and he has not stopped hitting the ball since then. He crushed a ball off the Diamondbacks’ Tommy Henry last night, which accounted for 1 of his 4 hits on the evening. In 3 big league games, Schmitt is 8-12 with 2 doubles, 4 RBIs and 5 runs scored. He’s only struck out one time in those 12 ABs. Keep an eye on this one as he’s been filling in for Brandon Crawford, but Crawford could return on Friday. I expect Schmitt to be fit somewhere in the lineup as Gabe Kapler shifts his infielders around frequently.
Pratto has been stellar in May, amassing 5 XBH and 10 RBIs. His value isn’t tied to just one category. He scores runs, gets on base and has even shown some power. Surprisingly, the Royals have scored the most runs in May with 67, with the Dodgers second at 62. Some of that has to do with their matchups vs. the A’s and the White Sox, but it also has to do with the increased production from guys like Nick Pratto, who has accounted for 11 of those 67 runs.
Position Player Name Salary P Dustin May $8,500 P C 1B Nick Pratto $2,800 2B 3B SS Trea Turner $5,800 OF JJ Bleday $2,600 OF OF Adolis Garcia $5,000 REMAINING BUDGET $25,300 for 5 players. Avg Rem/Player $5,060