• Order, order! Order on the court! The case of Trade Deadline vs. Dynasty Ranks is upon us. While we do not see as many impact names involved in the case as previous seasons, we of course expect numerous smaller pieces to announce themselves in the upcoming days. We could point to previous regulations and degrees in the CBA being implemented (we are looking at you 2nd-apron and 1st-apron rules), but alas we move on.

    As with any trade deadline, moves will take place that will impact dynasty rankings in some form or fashion. Even if the new CBA restricts the transactions that can occur, teams will find a way to work things out. In part due to the new CBA and due to the number of teams that can convince themselves to stay competitive, I believe this trade deadline will be relatively quiet.

    That doesn’t mean I cannot identify some potential players that will be traded! To truly get a leg up on managers in your dynasty league, you cannot wait for moves to occur. At that point, everyone will identify the same players as buys or sells. Those same players will no longer become buys or sells because there is no excess value to be made. Below, I bring up 16 players (and one hot situation) that bring up monitoring ahead of the trade deadline. I identify them each as buys, holds, or sells, allowing you to identify some targets before the trades actually occur.

    Jimmy Butler and the Heat

    In case you’ve tuned out to the latest update in the mano a mano conflict between Jimmy Butler and the Heat, we are still at an impasse between the two. The situation feels completely untenable, and I feel fairly confident that Butler will be moved ahead of the trade deadline. With all the rumors flying around, I do not share any shred of confidence in predicting where Butler will end up though, so I’ll save my analysis for the Heat players alone.

    Any post-Butler trade dynasty analysis on the Heat will partly hinge on what they receive back. The Heat would need to receive some large-salary players in any trade framework, so ostensibly there would be some new players in the Heat’s rotation. This leads me to believe that there wouldn’t be any significant gains for Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, or others, since the lost Butler minutes would partly be absorbed by the new incoming player or players. There are other reasons to believe in Jaquez (shooting coming back slightly) and Jovic (continuing to develop as a jumbo-sized playmaker and defender), but those are not reasons tied to any trade opening up opportunity. Tyler Herro is proving to be a capable lead option for the offense, so I doubt he takes any hit. Bam Adebayo has his own struggles this season, but it’s hard to see a big man coming back that would supplant him. Ditto for Kel’el Ware, whose emergence lately encourages some Heat optimism for the future.

    All of the above leads me to believe a Jimmy Butler trade means little for the dynasty stocks of the Heat players. Yep, I just wrote a bunch of words to say the potential biggest trade at the deadline actually doesn’t impact my dynasty rankings too much. That may seem like a boring conclusion, but I just can’t envision a scenario where any Heat players’ stock dramatically rises or falls (outside of the ones that already existed in regards to individual player development).

    Verdict: HOLD all Heat players

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