Last Updated on March 4, 2023 10:31 am by Giuseppe Spartico | Published: February 26, 2023

Preseason fantasy baseball draft rankings are always a subject of much controversy, given many users consider rankings and ADP as a draft guide of sorts. Unfortunately, there is no quantifiable way to measure the various risks and rewards that come with drafting each player, and as a result, the draft rankings lack context for the user to consider, as far as risk of regression or bust. Below, I’ll break down five of the hottest draft commodities in the top-100, and why they all carry increased risk of disappointment, ranging anywhere from an elevated likelihood of regression to significant chance of busting given their current ranks

Bo Bichette

Bichette’s reputation as one of the games rising young stars inflates his value in Yahoo’s ranking at 13, as it does in his ADP of 18.2. Despite his impressive hard-hit rate (94^th percentile), Bichette’s perceived failure to fulfill his superstar potential can be attributed to recurring dismal plate discipline. While his walk rate has improved over the past 2 years, grading out in the 4^th percentile in 2020 to the 19^th in 2022, a significant improvement is required to justify a selection inside the top-20 overall slots.

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Michael Harris

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