Drafters Beware: Busts Inside the ADP Top-100

  • Preseason fantasy baseball draft rankings are always a subject of much controversy, given many users consider rankings and ADP as a draft guide of sorts. Unfortunately, there is no quantifiable way to measure the various risks and rewards that come with drafting each player, and as a result, the draft rankings lack context for the user to consider, as far as risk of regression or bust. Below, I’ll break down five of the hottest draft commodities in the top-100, and why they all carry increased risk of disappointment, ranging anywhere from an elevated likelihood of regression to significant chance of busting given their current ranks


    Bo Bichette

    Bichette’s reputation as one of the games rising young stars inflates his value in Yahoo’s ranking at 13, as it does in his ADP of 18.2. Despite his impressive hard-hit rate (94th percentile), Bichette’s perceived failure to fulfill his superstar potential can be attributed to recurring dismal plate discipline. While his walk rate has improved over the past 2 years, grading out in the 4th percentile in 2020 to the 19th in 2022, a significant improvement is required to justify a selection inside the top-20 overall slots.


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    Michael Harris

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