Weekly Pitching Guide – May 25 – May 31

  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on May 24, 2026 7:09 am by Anthony Kates | Published: May 24, 2026

    Every Sunday this season, I will share my pitching guide for that week. It will include a table of the projected 2-start starting pitchers and their opponents, with my recommendations on starts and sits, plus my pitching streams for the week.

    WordPress Data Table Plugin

    For my recommended pitching streams, I will only suggest pitchers who are rostered in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues. All starts are projected, but are subject to change due to injury, a team deciding to have a bullpen day, expand to a six-man rotation, etc. Stats are through Sunday morning.

    Monday, May 25

    None

    Let’s avoid any pitfalls to start the week and just enjoy a mostly full day of baseball instead.

    Tuesday, May 26

    Keider Montero – DET – vs LAA – 10%

    Montero has done a decent job as the #5 starter in the Tigers rotation this season. He doesn’t strike out many batters, but he limits walks and home runs and minimizes base runners overall. He has had some pretty incredible BABIP luck (.208), but has been less fortunate with runners on base (67.3% strand rate), with his FIP being slightly worse than his actual ERA (4.22 against 3.83). He has been fly ball heavy this season, a stark contrast to his first two seasons in the big leagues, but that has not led to an uptick in home runs. In fact, his home run rate is more than half as low as it was last year, even though his fly ball rate is up nearly 19 percentage points. Montero is perfect for what he does: pitch every fifth game and keep the Tigers in it to the best of his ability, while trying not to do too much. He may not put up big, elite numbers, but he won’t have to facing…

    …one of the worst offensive teams when facing right-handed pitching on the road in the month of May, in the Angels. They have the fourth lowest wRC+, 75, third lowest OPS, .614, and the second highest strikeout rate, 28.9%. They’ve hit more ground balls than fly balls, have the fourth lowest hard hit rate and the lowest isolated power in the league. They have the fewest plate appearances against righties on the road in May, with 128, and have hit just one home run and scored four runs, while stealing zero bases and grounding into three double plays. No other team has scored fewer than 10 runs.

    Wednesday, May 27

    Logan Henderson – MIL – vs STL – 45%

    Henderson has made four very good starts since being called back up to the big leagues earlier this month, throwing 21 innings with 27 strikeouts, five walks, two home runs and five earned runs, earning two wins and one quality start in the process. He held the Yankees and the Dodgers to just two earned runs and four walks over 10 innings, striking out 12, so it wasn’t just easy opponents either (though his other two starts were the Twins and Nationals). He’s had plenty of luck on the basepaths, with an 87.2% strand rate, but not much batted ball, with a .277 BABIP, though a 51% fly ball rate and just two home runs seems very lucky, until you realize he has an 87 MPH average exit velocity and just a 28.6% hard hit rate. He has generated a 34.6% chase rate and a 13.8% swinging strike rate in may, with a nearly identical 76% contact rate and 76.9% zone-contact rate (those two numbers usually have like an eight-to-ten percentage point difference). He’s pitching as well as he did in his electric debut last year and should have done enough to lock himself into a rotation spot when the Brewers staff is healthy.

    The Cardinals have been around a league average offense when facing a right-hander pitcher on the road in May. Their 98 wRC+ places them tied for 15th with the Reds, their .697 OPS is 16th, just one point higher than the Giants and their 7.6% walk rate is just the 18th best rate in the league. They have hit more fly balls than ground balls and have an above league average line drive rate, but they have a middle of the pack hard hit rate, which has led to just seven home runs over 277 plate appearances. They have the 17th most plate appearances against righties on the road, have scored the 18th most runs (29) and ground into five double plays, tied with seven teams for eighth most.


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    May 24, 2026, 7:09 am