NFL Week 9 Preview – Early Window

  • We are officially into the second half of the NFL season, which means we’re getting close to the stretch run for your fantasy teams. For those of you who are hovering around .500 or worse, it’s time to be bold and take a chancd to upgrade your roster and chances of maling the playoffs simultaneously. I’ve got all the early window games covered here, while my guy Nathan finishes the week off with the rest of the action. Don’t forget to read Larry Vannozzi’s weekly weather report to make sure you’re prepared for last minute alerts about mother nature’s plans in NFL cities across the country. Also, check out Brian Shade’s projection model to help you predict and prepare for this week’s slate of fantasy football!

    First, a few housekeeping notes..

    Q’s Quick Pick Total Record: 29-35, -10.83u

    Week 1: 3-12, -8.96u; Week 2: 6-5, +0.3u; Week 3: 7-7, +0.88u; Week 4: 8-5, +1.6u; Week 5: 5-6, -4.65u; Weeks 6-8: N/A

    Picks: Odds are from DraftKings. Picks are for entertainment purposes only. Check out the Wager Pass for legit gambling talk.

    Start Sit Decisions: Start your studs. Otherwise, these are yours and yours alone to make. Hopefully my previews help provide context to assist you in making an informed, matchup winning decision.

    Week 8 Positional Rankings: QB’s courtesy of Jacob Dunne, RB’s courtesy of Brandon Furtado, WR’s courtesy of Robert Szolosi, TE’s courtesy of Max Silveira, and DST’s courtesy of Jon Mosales

     

    Bye Weeks: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers

     

    Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

    Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia

    Date: Sunday, November 3, 2024 at 1p EST

    Q’s Quick Pick: Kirk Cousins OVER 252.5 Passing Yards (-115)

    The Quarterbacks: (DAL) Boy, Dak Prescott has been STRUGGLING this season. Currently at QB19 averaging just 16 PPG, it’s a far cry from the electric season the Cowboys franchise QB put up last season. The Falcons are a friendly foe for passers to go up against, giving up the 7th most passing touchdowns (13). Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but I think Dak can have a top 12-15 performance this week. His completion percentage is ten points higher on the road, and he’s thrown four more touchdowns in away games (7 to 3). So yeah, Dak is set up nicely for a bounce back.. (ATL)  Kirk Cousins is having an up and down year that has him as the QB16 in average PPG. Looking at total numbers, he’s the QB11 though, suggesting his highs are pretty darn high. Those include two top 3 games in the past four weeks, highlighted by a QB1 overall finish in week 5. Dallas, meanwhile, has been lit up by passers a few times, allowing 299+ yards through the in three of seven games. Watch out, Cousins has this team rolling at the right time and looks to eclipse the 300 yard mark himself. He’s got top 3 potential this week.

    The Running Backs: (DAL) Can we start here by just declaring Ezekiel Elliott off the fantasy radar? Good, glad to get that one out of the way. Now, in to Rico Dowdle. The Falcons are a bottom third opponent for running backs to see on their schedule. Dowdle has has four games with eight or less points, and two games over 12. I’m sure it wouldn’t be surprising to hear that the two double digit games were the ones he scored a touchdown in. The Falcons have only allowed five rushing scores on the year, making it tough to see Dowdle as anything more than a touchdown dependent flex.. (ATL) Bijan Robinson has disappointed relative to expectation, but remains a superior option as long as he’s out there. The talent is there as long as the touches are. Dallas is the second worst team in football at stopping fantasy running backs. Robinson has top five upside in this spot. Tyler Allgeier has been more of a true handcuff most of the season, save a game against the Panthers who are coincidentally the only team worse than the Cowboys at stopping fantasy running backs. I could see him having flex appeal this week for anyone in need of an option.

    The Wide Receivers: (DAL) Did you see what Ceedee Lamb did against the 49ers last week? 13/146/2 is always in the realm of possibilities. Falcons star cornerback AJ Terrell should be matched up on Lamb frequency as one of the leagues premier cover men, meaning Jalen Tolbert should see softer coverage. He’s had five or more targets on four games. The other three games? Three targets or less. He’s a risky play this week, as he is every week.. (ATL) Drake London is a couple ticks lower than Lamb, but continues to trend up while enjoying a breakout campaign. His five touchdowns this season ready mark a season high. London is on pace to shatter his personal best in targets, receptions, and yards should things continue as is. This has him as the current WR6. Say it with me now: START 👏🏽 YOUR 👏🏽 STUDS. Darnell Mooney is another player on this offense enjoying what feels like a career year. Though, from a stats standpoint, his 2018 season in Chicago was arguably better. In his first season in Atlanta, he’s already tied for his career high in touchdowns (4). The Cowboys have been hit or miss on defense and have seemingly hit a lull thanks in part to a few key injuries. With the Falcons looking like they are hitting their stride offensively, Mooney pushes himself into priority flex position this week and someone you can be comfortable with as your WR2 if you’re strong at other positions around him.

    The Tight Ends: (DAL) Seeing 5.3 targets per game is about all you can ask for from a tight end. That puts Jake Ferguson squarely in TE1 territory based off volume alone. He’s locked in as the second option in the passing game and has touchdown upside on a plus offense.. (ATL) Stop me if you’ve heard this before about the 2024 Falcons young offensive stars, but Kyle Pitts is pacing a career year for fantasy football. His rookie season saw him finish as the TE7 by total points and TE13 by average PPG. Currently, Pitts is the TE4 in total points and TE6 in average PPG. That’s a major boost, making him a must start moving forward.

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