NFL Week 9 Preview: Late Window & Primetime

  • We’re back with the weekly fantasy previews! This time I’ll be tackling the afternoon window and primetime slate while Anthony focuses on the early slate of Week 9’s stacked lineup in his return. If you haven’t already, check out his early window preview by clicking on the link below!

    Related Article: NFL Week 9 Preview – Early Window

    Don’t forget to read Larry Vannozzi’s weekly weather report to make sure you’re prepared for last minute alerts about mother nature’s plans in NFL cities across the country. Also, check out Brian Shade’s projection model to help you predict and prepare for this week’s slate of fantasy football!

    Last Week’s Results: I was 6-2 in my picks for Week 8’s early window, and I’m up to 18-16 through three weeks of reviews. Let’s ride the momentum!

    Picks: Odds are from DraftKings. Picks are for entertainment purposes only. Check out the Wager Pass for legit gambling talk.

    Start Sit Decisions: Start your studs. Otherwise, these are yours and yours alone to make. Hopefully my previews help provide context to assist you in making an informed, matchup winning decision.

    Week 8 Positional Rankings: QB’s courtesy of Jacob Dunne, RB’s courtesy of Jon Mosales, WR’s courtesy of Robert Szolosi, and TE’s courtesy of Max Silveira

     

    BYE WEEKS: Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs

     

    Matchup: Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

    Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona

    Date: Sunday, November 3, 2024 at 4:05pm EST

    Nate’s Lock: Trey McBride OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

    The Quarterbacks: (ARI) Kyler Murray is the QB11 in FPPG this season, and he’s turned in three QB1 finishes in the last four weeks, including two top-five performances. He’s getting it done through the air and on the ground, and is proven to be among the most consistent fantasy QBs this year. He gets a tougher matchup with the Chicago Bears in Week 9, though, and it’ll be a lot tougher to replicate his recent success against the second-best fantasy defense vs. opposing QBs. They’ve allowed just five quarterback touchdowns through their first seven games of the season. (CHI) Caleb Williams didn’t do anything for the majority of four quarters against the Commanders’ defense, one that’s starting to become a tougher matchup than early season indications have led us to believe. Williams was unable to build on a QB1 and QB6 finish prior to the team enjoying a Week 7 bye, ultimately turning in a complete dud as the QB28 in Week 9. A silver lining for Williams has been his rushing work the last few weeks, seeing at least 34 rushing yards and averaging 45 per game over his last three performances. The Cardinals’ defense has also had a similar season trajectory vs. fantasy QBs, as they’ve tightened up when it comes to QB touchdowns, but they still surrender the seventh-most fantasy points to the position on the year. Williams will be a mid-to-high QB2 in this matchup.

    The Running Backs: (ARI) James Conner continues to be a cut above the rest when it comes to fighting through would-be tacklers, logging a whopping 47 broken tackles on the season, with the next-closest player sitting at just 29. If there’s one area that the Bears are beatable in when it comes to defense, it’s on the ground. They sit as the 12th-best defense against RBs this season, but have held teams out of the end zone on the ground for the last few weeks. Conner is the RB20 in FPPG amongst a talented 2024 class of fantasy RBs, and has at least 13 points in 4-of-5 games. He’ll be a solid RB2 start in this Week 9 matchup. (CHI) D’Andre Swift continues to rip off long gains, and is a far cry from the terrible RB we saw in the first month of the season. He has recorded at least 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in four-straight performances, and he’s the RB4 in FPPG during that span. He’ll have another shot at a great fantasy outing against a bad Cardinals run defense that’s surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to the position this season. They’ve allowed over 150 scrimmage yards a game to opposing running backs on the year. 

    The Wide Receivers: (ARI) Both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson caught touchdowns last week, but Marvin wound up with six catches and 111 yards while Wilson had five for 31. MHJ has been a touchdown-or-bust WR in his rookie season, and Week 8 marked his first scoring grab since Week 4, which helped him move up to the WR31 in FPPG this season. The Bears’ defense has become a bit more forgiving in recent weeks, but they are still allowing wideouts to just the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game this season. Terry McLaurin and Gabe Davis have been able to do damage out wide against the Bears in recent weeks, so maybe there is a place for MHJ to exploit in the defense this week. Michael Wilson might is nothing more than a deep-league flex candidate in his current role. (CHI) It was a brutal day for Bears pass-catchers against the Commanders in Week 8, as rookie WR Rome Odunze led the team with just three catches for 41 yards. The team was draped by Washington’s coverage all day, and Caleb Williams couldn’t get anything going. DJ Moore will have better days ahead as the team’s typical top wideout, and should have a chance to bounce back this week against the Cardinals. Arizona allows the ninth-most fantasy points to WRs this season, and also seventh-most receiving yards to the position. Keenan Allen, along with Odunze, are both WR4s with upside in this matchup, though Allen has shown an increased role over the last few weeks, and is slightly more appealing than Odunze at the moment.

    The Tight Ends: (ARI) Trey McBride continues to churn out the volume, and he’s third amongst tight ends with 446 receiving yards and second with 42 receptions on the season, and leads those without a receiving TD. He finished as the TE5 overall in a busy week for the position last week, ending his day with 9-of-11 targets for 124 yards against the Dolphins. The Bears have allowed Zach Ertz and Evan Engram to combine for 17-of-21 targets for 179 yards over their last two games, and McBride could be next in line to find his spots against Chicago’s typically strong 2024 pass defense. (CHI) Cole Kmet didn’t take part in the fun on national TE day last week, as his boom-or-bust fantasy profile fell on the latter side in Week 8. He’s the TE7 in FPPG this season, but had just one target vs. the Commanders, which he caught for 14 yards. Caleb Williams couldn’t get anything going against a rapidly-improving Commanders D under Dan  Quinn. Kmet will have a chance to get back in the boom column against a Cardinals defense that is middling against opposing TEs.

     

    Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

    Location: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

    Date: Sunday, November 3, 2024 at 4:05pm EST

    Nate’s Lock: Evan Engram OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

    The Quarterbacks: (PHI) Over his last two games, Jalen Hurts has two passing touchdowns and FIVE rushing touchdowns, as he and the Eagles have brought the tush push back on the goal-line in full force. He finished as the QB4 overall in Week 7 and got his first QB1 overall performance last week against the Bengals, pushing him to the QB3 in FPPG on the season, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. He’ll have a great chance to repeat that success in Week 9 against a bad Jaguars defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2024. (JAC) Trevor Lawrence is coming off of his best fantasy performance of the season, throwing for 300 yards and two scores and adding a rushing touchdown from about 10 yards out, adding up to a QB6 finish on the week. While his quality of play has definitely ticked up over the last few weeks, it’ll be a bit tougher to find fantasy production against an Eagles defense that gives up just the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. The defensive front is getting after the quarterback and the team has defended the pass really well since an early bye in Week 5, giving up an average of 167 passing yards and just one total QB touchdown since then. Lawrence will be in mid-to-late QB2 range, but could be entirely downgraded out of fantasy consideration if Brian Thomas Jr., a game-time decision, is unable to suit up this week with a chest injury. 

    The Running Backs: (PHI) Saquon Barkley continues to be a force to be reckoned with on the football field, he’s just having a bit harder time finding the end zone with Jalen Hurts stealing five rushing scores in the last two weeks. Barkley is the RB3 in FPPG this season, but he has three finished outide the top-20 in his last four performances, despite turning in decent statlines. For instance, 22 carries for 108 yards was only good enough for the RB25 last week. He’ll have a great chance to get another elite finish under his belt against a Jaguars defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points to opposing ball-carriers this season. (JAC) This RB room has been a confusing one to navigate ahead of Week 9, after Travis Etienne Jr. has been lauded by the coaching staff ahead of his potential return, despite some very impressive running from Tank Bigsby in the wake of his absence. A hamstring injury has held ETN out the last few weeks, and keeps him a game-time decision this week. The Eagles allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, and will a tough matchup for Jacksonville RBs regardless of who’s involved most. Given the limited status of ETN, I don’t see him getting a large role in the offense if a game-time decision goes his way. If he’s out, Bigsby is a fine volume-based start in a tough matchup,

    The Wide Receivers: (PHI) A.J. Brown is a terror at the WR position, and remains the WR2 in FPPG this season despite not reaching his elite ceiling last week, catching five balls for 84 yards. It was the first time Brown didn’t find his way to the end zone while active this season, though there’s a decent chance he’s not held from the end zone for long with a great matchup against the Jaguars on tap for Week 9. As Brown failed to score last week, Devonta Smith wound up catching his third touchdown of the season to go with six catches and 85 yards. Smith is also the WR20 in FPPG himself, and has been among the most consistent at the position with four finishes inside the top-24 in six games this season. The Jaguars allow the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts this season, and both Eagles receivers will have a chance to blow up in this spot. (JAC) This Jacksonville receiving room took a huge beating in Week 8 against the Packers, losing Christian Kirk for the season, while Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis have their Week 9 status threatened by injuries they came away with last Sunday. If either of those two are ruled out ahead of their matchup with Philly this week, Parker Washington is an intriguing plug-and-play option for as long as they’re sidelined. In his first real snaps last week he caught 3-of-4 targets for 46 yards. The Eagles are a beatable secondary, allowing the 12th-most fantasy production to wide receivers so far this season. Thomas is a must start if he’s active, while Gabe Davis is a bit more trustworthy if the rookie WR is ruled out.

    The Tight Ends: (PHI) Dallas Goedert still hasn’t made it back to practice as of Thursday, as he continues to nurse a hamstring injury that’s held him out of the last two weeks. In his place, Grant Calcaterra has been getting the start as the primary pass-catching tight end in his absence. In his two starts, Calcaterra has seen an average of two catches for 31 yards, and isn’t a substantial fantasy asset in his increased role. He does get a top-10 matchup against Jacksonville, for those looking for a reason to start him in deep league desperation. (JAC) Evan Engram has been a pleasant fixture of the Jags offense since making his way back from a nagging hamstring injury early in the season. In Week 8, Engram logged his second TE1 finish in three games back, and recorded his first touchdown of the season to go with four catches and 36 yards. It’ll be tough to find the same success against an Eagles defense that allows the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. Engram’s role is still large enough that he remains amongst the safer starts at the position. Backup TE Brenton Strange also got some action last week with the Jags losing their top-two WRs in Week 8, with Christian Kirk out for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. exiting late with a chest injury. Strange caught all five of his targets for 59 yards last week.

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