November 17, 2023, 10:59 am
Los Angeles (4-5) at Green Bay (3-6)
ML Chargers (-166) @ Packers (+140): O/U 44
Chargers -3 (-115), Packers +3 (-105)
The Chargers can get back to .500 with a win when they visit the Packers on Sunday. The Chargers are coming off a 41-38 loss at home to the Detroit Lions in Week 10. The Packers gave up a second-half lead and lost 23-19 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Of the six losses this season for the Packers, four were one-score games they lost on the road.
Main Storylines to Watch
Which Packers WR can you trust to start? You probably have seen all three of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed hit the waiver wire in a league at some point now. It’s been tough to predict which one will score week-to-week. But does this week’s matchup present an opportunity to start one?
Is there any other pass catcher besides Keenan Allen to start on the Chargers? Allen has dominated the Chargers in targets, receptions, and fantasy production. But he left the game last week for a stint with a shoulder injury and has been limited in practices this week. Can a reliable second target emerge for the Chargers and fantasy teams?
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love: Love finished up as the QB12 last week at Pittsburgh. He now sits at the QB13 for the year. Love is just a safe start for 2QB and SuperFlex leagues, as he offers hardly any upside when playing. He has not surpassed 20 fantasy points in a game since week 3. If there is ever a week where you are forced to start him in a 1QB league though, this would be the week. This week he is at home facing a Chargers defense that gives up the fourth most fantasy points to QBs, giving up over 250 yards passing and two TDs a game.
Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon: Dillon closed the snap share count from the previous week, only getting six fewer snaps than Jones. Their rushes and production changed from the previous week as well. Here was their distribution against the Steelers:
Aaron Jones: 57% snaps, 13 carries, 21 routes, 6 targets (54 yards)
AJ Dillon: 48% snaps, 9 carries, 17 routes, 3 targets (81 yards)
Dillon also had the better rushing day, averaging over seven yards a carry while Jones was below three yards a carry. The Chargers are allowing five receptions to RBs a game this year so this still sets up for a better Jones week, but after last week if you are in a bind, you could put Dillon in a flex spot as well.
Packers WRs: Romeo Doubs has now scored in three out of his last four games but is only averaging three catches per game in those four games. Jayden Reed now leads the team in receiving yards per game and yards per target. Over the last three weeks, Reed has had almost 200 yards receiving and one touchdown. Christian Watson has now been the WR57, WR71, WR66, and WR64 over his last four games. Reed is looking like the top Packers WR to have if you are going to roster one of them. For this week, I would rank them Reed, Doubs then Watson.
Luke Musgrave: Luke Musgrave has now been over 50 yards receiving in his last two games to finish as the TE9 and TE14, so this alone puts him back on the streaming radar to start in leagues. He faces a Chargers team that gives up the 13th most fantasy points to TEs.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert: Herbert had one of his best games of the year last week, throwing for over 300 yards and four TDs to end up as the QB2 for the week. The big concern for Herbet this week will be the health of Keenan Allen, who has been nursing a shoulder injury since last week’s game. If Allen is limited this week, it could be a lower-scoring week for Herbert. He has struggled to get consistent production from a second receiving option and the Packers allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs this year.
Austin Ekeler: Over the last three games, Ekeler has shown he is back to 100%, finishing as the RB6, RB4, RB4. Expect another top-five performance this week.
Chargers WRs: Keenan Allen is locked into a WR1 slot every week. The second option gets a little dicier. Quentin Johnston had his first career touchdown last week. He also ran the 2nd most routes and had the highest snap count of the team’s WRs. The target volume has been lacking though with just seven over the last two games. Now Jalen Guyton has entered the chat. Guyton is someone I would keep my eye on and make a speculative add in leagues. Joshua Palmer will still be out for multiple weeks. In week 9, Guyton ran 73% of the routes. Then last week, that number rose to 85%, while he got six targets, catching four of them for 41 yards and a score. With Johnston struggling to earn the trust of Herbert target-wise, I would have Guyton as a start over him in this game if you needed a desperation WR3/flex.
Chargers TEs: Gerald Everett missed some practices this week while Donald Parham Jr. returned to practices. Parham has four TDs on the year and I would have him ranked around the same range as Tanner Hudson and Tyler Higbee.
- Betting Insight
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Jayden Reed has been over three receptions in four straight games and has led this team in receiving in two out of his last three games. Aaron Jones has had four receptions per game in his last three games and the Chargers give up over five receptions per game to RBs.
Bet: Jayden Reed O2.5 receptions (-150) (DraftKings)
Lean: Aaron Jones O3.5 receptions (+105) (DraftKings)