November 17, 2023, 1:32 pm
Chicago Bears (3-7) @ Detroit Lions (7-2) Best Lines Available
Bears (+310), Lions (-380): O/U 47.5-48
Bears +7.5 (-105), Lions -7.5 (-110)
Bet: 19-23 -3.88u
Lean: 11-9-1 +1.79u
A divisional rivalry and a returning QB. What’s not to love in a classic NFC North showdown between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions? This one should be pretty interesting, even though on paper it looks like the Lions should be heavy favorites. The Bears have a ton of question marks, so there’s no way in the world I’d pick them to win this one, and yet… The return of Justin Fields just muddies up what we think we know about this matchup since he’s been out for a month.
Main Storylines to Watch
Justin Fields Returns: Tyson Bagent filled in and secured a few low-quality wins, but the man the Bears have hung their organizational hats on is back and healthy, which means he’ll surely get the start here. Perhaps he’ll look better than the first six weeks, but I wouldn’t bet on it. There will likely be some rust and the Lions are a great team. Yet, we can’t deny the athletic talent of Fields, who has big play ability in any game.
Lion’s Roar: The Lions are absolutely cruising with Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown in sync. David Montgomery is healthy again to give the Lions a deadly 1-2 punch at running back with Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions have all the weapons and the Bears defense has been better of late, but still probably can’t stand up to this kind of firepower. It could be a bloodbath.
Justin Fields: If you’ve stashed him in your IR all season, you might as well play him. Otherwise, why did you stash him? The matchup isn’t tremendous, but you can beat the Lions throwing the football. Can Fields do it though? That’s always going to be a question, but if you drafted him or stashed him, it’s a question you’ve been aware of for a while.
D’Onta Foreman? Khalil Herbert? At the time of this writing, we don’t know who is going to be RB1 for Chicago. Foreman is dealing with an ankle issue that limited him in practice and Herbert is still on the IR, but seems to be on track to suit up for his first action in multiple weeks. Whoever gets the nod is going to have a tough matchup, but more importantly knowing who is going to suit up is going to influence the line. Foreman has been far and away the best running back in Chicago, but Herbert had the RB1 spot to start the season. I believe even if Herbert is activated before Saturday’s 4 PM ET deadline, he’ll serve a limited RB2 role behind Foreman (if he suits up). If Foreman can’t go, there’s a possibility we get a full helping of Herbert with some Roschon Johnson thrown in.
DJ Moore: He’s the only wide receiver that matters and his fantasy managers should rejoice that Fields is back in action as it significantly raises his ceiling. Hopefully we can trust him the rest of the way and I actually like this spot against the Lions’ secondary.
Cole Kmet: He’s also a guy that should be happy Justin Fields is back. I would play him if you rostered him through the Bagent days, and I would consider snagging him if you’re not keen on your current tight end (or were rostering Mark Andrews RIP).
Jared Goff: You already know my feelings on Goff, but against the Bears he’s an auto-start.
David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs: Both of these guys should be started against the Bears due to scoring upside, but it’s important to note that Gibbs was taking some work from Montgomery at the goalline. Monty broke off a big run for a TD to save his day, but didn’t see many attempts. Ultimately, that’s probably just due to the fact that he was working his way back from injury. I wouldn’t be overly worried, though I do think that giving Gibbs more opportunities as the season wears on makes sense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: You could take some stabs at guys like Khalif Raymond or Jameson Williams against this defense, but ARSB is the only one I’d trust. He’s an auto-start here, ofc.
Sam LaPorta: I didn’t even mention him in the opening, but yes you start LaPorta of course. He’s been incredible in his rookie season and has a big share of the offensive workload. Play him.
It’s difficult for me to take a definitive stance on this game with so many question marks, but I do lean the Lions blowing the Bears out of the water, mainly because of the varied ways in which they can score the football. The Bears defense probably isn’t one you want to roster this week. I love this LaPorta/Kmet O0.5 touchdown prop as both guys are big red zone threats for their respective teams. We’re riding the “Jahmyr Gibbs gets more touches” train as the season wears on, though I’d say we have some risk here if Monty climbs in his role.
Lean: Lions -7.5 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u (widely available)
BET: Sam LaPorta/Cole Kmet O0.5 touchdowns (-115) 1.15u to win 1u (BetMGM)
BET: Jahmyr Gibbs O69.5 rush + rec yards (-115) 1.15u to win 1u (DK)