This time of year, we are getting more and more injury news and the draft price of some players become more and more questionable. Sometimes a player has an issue that seems minor but then turns into a potential lengthy absence (IE, Yu Darvish going from fatigue to inflammation in 24 hours).

So let me guide you through some players whose ADP has dropped recently due to new injury concerns, and I answer the question as to whether or not it would be worth stashing them at their ADP.

The listed ADPs will be for NFBC drafts starting March 17 through March 21, which includes 70 drafts.

Players with ADP within the top 350 will be discussed.

Also note that I only included players that got hurt during the spring and are officially ruled out for Opening Day. Players that have been hurt all spring (Spencer Strider) have had an injury-related ADP all draft season. Players that are dealing with injuries but are still very much still on track to play Opening Day (Christian Walker) were not included.

Grayson Rodriguez – 262.71 ADP

This is a tough one.

As I have said over and over, especially for roto league players, volume for pitchers is slightly less important as ratios matter a bit more than the counting stats (there are two ratios and two counting stats for pitchers, one ratio and four counting stats for hitters).

When you look at the ATC projections for Grayson (which I like to use because it is an aggregate projection), has him sitting at 24 starts.

Which isn’t terrible volume for a pitcher.

The problem with Rodriguez is he is projected for an ERA of 3.50+ and a WHIP of around 1.20.

These are not terrible ratios but not the kind of ratios that help you with a limited playing situation like the ratios of a Tyler Glasnow or Jacob deGrom.

He is a solid strikeout arm with a very likely 25%+ K rate and he exhibits solid command with walk rates round 7%.

The other problem with Rodriguez is, we have don’t really know how long he will be out and with elbow inflammation, season-ending surgery is still in the cards.

Verdict

12-teams

with an IL spot – stash with one of your last picks.

No IL – avoid him.

15-teams

with an IL spot – stash him closer to pick 300.

No IL – Very last pick. Don’t be afraid to drop him early if other injuries pop up on your team.

Tyler Stephenson (211.65 ADP)

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