Divisional Round Preview Commanders at Lions

  • Commanders (+9.5) @ Lions (-9.5)

    O/U 55.5

     

    Important notes for Commanders:

    The Commanders are playing with house money, but they also might have an edge over the rest of the casino.  Jayden Daniels is playing with poise beyond his years and he’s already defying the odds with a road playoff victory.  This is by far his toughest task yet, but the Lions aren’t invincible, especially on defense.  The Lions have more weapons than any team in the league, but WAS might have the best one.  The Lions love to play man and that forces the secondary to turn it’s back to Daniels and if they do that, he will take off every time.  The Commanders can’t win this game if it’s low scoring, they need to go score-for-score and hope to get lucky in the TO department.  Bobby Wagner is going to play which will help the run defense, but it’s still going to get gashed all day.

    Important notes for Lions:

    The Lions are getting healthy at the right time and the bye week definitely did wonders.  They get David Montgomery back, but if he struggles, any touches that don’t go to Jahmyr Gibbs are a wasted opportunity cost.  The Lions’ offense is probably the most dangerous in the league as it doesn’t ever want to just do one thing.  The Ravens and Eagles want to pound the ball all day while the Lions are always setting up the next explosive play.  The Commanders run defense is bottom of the barrel, so look for DET to start there and if Gibbs and Montgomery each come close to 100 yards, they might keep Daniels off the field long enough for him to stay in check.  The more chances they give Daniels, the more risk they run of getting burned.  The Lions should be in control most of the game, but if they give WAS a sliver, we’ve seen how big a hole they can turn it into.

    The QBs: This is going to be a referendum on QB styles as Jared Goff is old-school, hang in the pocket and strike downfield while Jayden Daniels is more of a new-age, dual-threat, quick-strike weapon.  Both are incredibly effective, but Goff is supported by two elite RBs, an elite o-line and multiple receiving weapons.  Daniels is more of a one-man band although Terry McLaurin has finally emerged as a WR1.  If this is an up-and-down game, then FGs are going to be treated like punts and any TO will be akin to a TD.  Daniels has the mojo and pedigree, but Goff is at home, has been here before and isn’t going to be asked to do too much.  If WAS is going to win or even stay in the game, Daniels will have to have one of the greatest playoff games a rookie QB has ever had.  I like WAS to hang around, but the margin for error is razor thin whereas the Lions plenty of room to maneuver and make mistakes.

    The RBs: Jahmyr Gibbs has shown he’s got the talent to be a bell cow, but it’s not the most effective way to weaponize the DET offense.  They like to play fast and loose and keeping Gibbs as fresh as possible while letting David Montgomery be the hammer makes the DET offense essentially unstoppable.  The moment you adjust too far in one direction, they punish you with the zag.  Don’t expect the Lions to reinvent the wheel this week as WAS has the 30th ranked run defense and if Montgomery is in fact 100%, they will be completely content establishing the run for four quarters.  The Commanders have their own thunder and lightning with Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler and both appear to be as healthy as they have been all season.  Ekeler and Robinson weren’t effective vs. TB running the ball, but they caught seven passes combined and act as key safety valves when Daniels gets pressured or forced out of the pocket.  The Lions run D is stout and a negative game-script implies each RB will need to be effective through the air rather than rely on a busy day on the ground.  If the WAS RBs can at least 50% of the production of the DET backs, that might be enough so that Daniels can fill up the other 50%.

    The WRs: Amon-Ra St. Brown is the top name in this game, but don’t sleep on Terry McLaurin who had 33 fewer catches than St. Brown, but scored one more TD (13 to 12).  The Lions’ offense goes through multiple people, but the WAS offense goes through Scary Terry.  He had four games with two or fewer catches, but when the lights are brightest, expect Daniels to look for McLaurin and not short of the sticks, way downfield.  St. Brown was great again after a slow start and it’s clear DET will actively get him the ball all over the field, but Jameson Williams is the back-breaker and if he gets lose, this game could be over quickly.  Jameson had over 1000 yards on only 58 catches and is the probably the most explosive big-play threat in the league right now.  WAS should try to take him out of the game, concede the short stuff to St. Brown and hope Gibbs and Montgomery don’t average well over five yards a carry.  The rest of the WAS WR room has improved and if Dynami Brown isn’t a one-game wonder, they could be dangerous.  Daniels might just be great enough to elevate anyone on this roster.

    The TEs: This is a perfect old vs. new as Zach Ertz still has some gas left in the tank as Sam LaPorta could explode in any game.  Ertz has scored in five of the last seven and is a savvy veteran presence for Daniels over the middle.  He knows how to get open and still has great hands and he will be heard from in this game.  LaPorta isn’t asked to do that much right now and while he’s still a TD threat, he’s just another weapon capable of breaking the game open if DET decides to go that way.

    Best Bet: Jayden Daniels over rushing/passing 295.5 parlayed with David Montgomery 14.5 rec yards.

    Daniels is going to have to do it all and his rushing line of 55.5 is juiced up, but getting the best of both worlds makes a lot of sense as he will likely be playing catch up all game.  It’s hard to pick which Lion player to bet on as there are so many with a great shot to blow up.  Montgomery has been a sneaky receiving option all season and has gone over this line every time he’s healthy.  As long as he’s not on a snap count or gets hurt again, he should sail over this by half time.

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