Texans (+8.5) @ Chiefs (-8.5)

O/U 41.5

Important notes for Texans:

Most assumed that the Texans would roll over and one-and-done in the postseason, but they came out swinging, upsetting the Chargers in a big way. Their defense played remarkably, forcing a career-worst four interceptions from Chargers QB Justin Herbert. One of the biggest differences between these two teams, on paper, is how they are able to execute in the red zone, where the Chiefs and Texans both ranked in the bottom 10 on offense this season. However, the Texans had the sixth-worst RZ defense this season, allowing opponents to find the end zone on 63.6% of RZ drives. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense was eighth in the NFL in this area in the 2024 regular season, surrendering a TD on 51.9% of RZ drives. The Texans are going to need to buckle down in the red zone in a big way if there are going to have any shot at an upset in this one.

Important notes for Chiefs:

The Chiefs’ postseason trek to a three-peat starts now against the scrappy Texans. These teams squared off not too long ago on December 21, where the Chiefs won by one score, 27-19. The Chiefs are one of the best-coached organizations in the league, and we all know how dangerous Andy Reid is off of a bye week, but perhaps having practically two in a row could throw a wrench in that phenomenon. The Chiefs’ biggest priorities will be finding a way to beat the Texans’ pass rush led by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., which was fourth in the NFL with 49 sacks this regular season. One of the biggest storylines out of Kansas City this week was the decision at left tackle, where they’re opting to keep versatile vet Joe Thuney covering Mahomes’s blindside. I’m expecting the Chiefs to get the ball out lightning fast more often than not in this game, which we’ve seen them find success doing on repeated occasion. However, per the Mina Kimes Show, the Texans are the third-best defense against quick-game offenses, allowing the third-lowest EPA per play and second-lowest QBR against teams that get it out quick.

The QBs: C.J. Stroud has been fine this season, and is the 16th-ranked quarterback this season per PFF. The last time these teams faced, Stroud and the Texans’ offense had a hard time bouncing back after Tank Dell suffered a major, season-ending injury, but looked good as a unit prior to the events that transpired. The Chiefs are the fifth-worst defense in the NFL against condensed formations this season, where the Texans ran such looks at the eighth-highest rate this season. Unfortunately, the Texans are lacking complementary pass-catching talent at this point in the season, which could strongly impact the effectiveness of such formations. Also, The Chiefs’ defense, led by head-coaching candidate DC Steve Spagnuolo, blitz at the fourth-highest rate this season. Stroud scrambled for 42 yards against the Chargers last week, and could find success on the ground while being flushed out of the pocket in a hurry by frequent blitzes. One of the areas that the Texans have struggled against defensively is defending mobile quarterbacks, where Mahomes has always been amazing at extending plays and making something out of nothing with his legs. Mahomes also has more weapons than ever this season, and Travis Kelce should be much more active now that we’re in the post-season. Mahomes shines with everything on the line, and as long as his left side of the line can hold up, the Chiefs could cruise to the AFC Championship.

The RBs: The Chiefs have been among the best rushing defenses in the NFL in 2024, and Joe Mixon has had a great debut season with Houston. The last time these teams squared off, Mixon had 14 carries for 57 yards, and caught just 1-of-2 targets for 14 yards. I expect Mixon to get involved a bit more in the passing game with the talent disparity in the Texans’ offense. A lot of his rushing volume will come after the Texans are able to build a lead, which will be hard to do against the Chiefs, if at all. The Chiefs should be getting the best version of Isiah Pacheco they’ve seen all season, who hasn’t looked like quite the violent, rolling running back we’ve come to know in his young career. The Texans are 11th in rush yards allowed and tied for fourth in rushing TDs allowed this year. Kareem Hunt has looked better than him, at times, and I imagine he and even third-down back Samaje Perine could get involved a bit too if Pacheco is yet to return to full strength and speed. Before his injury, though, we saw Pacheco used as a near-bellcow, even getting involved on third downs and in the passing game on frequent occasion early on this season.

The WRs: Nico Collins is about all that matters for the Texans WR room. The last time these teams faced off, the Chiefs would force Collins outside with a safety shadowing the middle of the field, leaning towards his side. Collins has been a back-breaker, though less often in 2024, he was one of the best in the league at deep, in-breaking routes, and the Chiefs clearly understood that. The matchup with All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie may be the one to watch in this entire game. It will be on the lackluster complementary pieces to give the Texans a fighting chance on offense, though they haven’t seen a ton from the likes of John Metchie, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson. Tank Dell has six catches for 98 yards and a TD before exiting the last time these teams squared off, and without that production, it’ll be hard for the Texans to get much going. The team should also look to get creative when getting the ball to Nico Collins, using him in the screen game and more schemed up looks in the intermediate field. As for Kansas City, all of a sudden they have a trio of WRs that impact the game in unique ways. Deandre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown could all get looks in this one. Brown is maybe the most intriguing name, after getting his first action late in the season and netting 2.6 yards per route run in his limited appearances. In his first game back, which was also against Houston, Brown had eight targets on 16 routes run.

The TEs: Even with all the injuries to Texans pass-catchers this season, Dalton Schultz didn’t quite step up in the way that his previous seasons would suggest he could have. He had a couple decent games to close the season, but was ultimately more uninspiring than not. He could be somebody that pops up for a big game with everything on the line, especially as the Chiefs allowed more tight end receiving yards than any other team this season at just over 70 YPG to opposing TEs. As we brushed over earlier, Travis Kelce should be awakened with the playoffs here and now. While the Texans allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends, they also tied for the fifth-most TDs allowed to the position. Kelce is a big part of the reason the team finds so much success in the red zone, and could easily come down with a TD grab in this one. Kelce has the highest odds to score a TD in the game at +145.

Best Bet: C.J Stroud OVER 15.5 Rushing Yards (-105) and Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-115)   [Parlay Odds: +265]

It’s playoff time and quarterbacks know that they need to make the most of any daylight they see, and while we know Mahomes understands that, it was great to see Stroud exhibit his play making a bit more in last week’s Wild Card matchup with the Chargers. The Chiefs’ high blitz rate should be forcing him out of the pocket often, and with the lackluster receiving talent beyond Nico Collins, Stroud’s legs might be the second-best option on Texans drop backs.

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