2026 Fantasy Baseball Season in Review – Outfield Duds

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  • By Paul Williamson

    Last Updated on October 6, 2026 2:45 pm by Paul Williamson | Published: October 6, 2026

    Baseball is as unpredictable as almost any sport that exists. We have all the data we could ever want but nothing can prepare you for those seasons by players where the data from the previous seasons are thrown out the window completely.

    That can either be a good thing or a bad thing for player’s value.

    Here, I will discuss the bad with a breakdown of the outfield duds for 2026. I will dive into what changed for each player. Did they start to swing and miss more than usual? Did they change their approach at the plate? Did they simply stop hitting ball as hard?

    Once we understand where things went wrong, we can assess if they are problems these players can overcome in 2027 and if it might be worth buying the incoming dip in ADP.

    Aaron Judge – New York Yankees

    This is not just a ‘he was hurt so he wasn’t valuable’ dud.

    Judge’s numbers took a noticeable step back this year.

    The .241 average was the lowest of his career (not counting his 95 PA cup of coffee in 2016). His K% was the highest it has been since 2019. His .250 ISO is the lowest of his career. His xStats were also well below his career norms (.259 xBA, .569 xSLG, .396 xwOBA).

    It does feel weird criticizing a player for having a .569 xSLG but that is the world we are living in when discussing the likes of Aaron Judge.

    We are used to seeing him return numbers that are otherworldly and only matched by a select few human beings on earth.

    There is some good news. His bat speed was as elite as ever with a 76.1 MPH mark and a 63.9% FastSw%. He returned a 20%+ barrel rate for the 5th straight year and a 56%+ hard hit rate for his seventh out of eight years.

    His hit tool metrics, despite the higher K%, were actually right at, or slightly better than, his career mark like his 13.2% SwStr% and 69.3% contact%. Those are not great but are more than good enough for the kind of loud contact Judge produces. He also had an 80%+ in-zone contact rate for the first time since 2022.

    While there is no way I would draft him with a top-2 pick like he was this last year, I would advise to not let him fall too far. He might be a major steal if he falls into the second round.. This is still Aaron Judge with the same elite quality of contact numbers that should allow him to get back to elite fantasy status in no time.

    A full campaign would have seen him approach 40 homers with 100 runs and RBI.

    Kyle Tucker – Los Angeles Dodgers

    Yikes.

    Tucker was a late first round or early second round pick in 2026 but fell far short of that cost and those expectations. In 627 plate appearances he could only muster 17 homers, 12 steals and a .233 average.

    He did bat near the top of the Dodger lineup with a great BB% so he did stumble into 90 runs, so that definitely helped somewhat save what was a very poor year for the star outfielder.

    The glaring home and away splits help explain some of the struggles. He only hit five of his homers in LA with a .196 average, .102 ISO and 69 wRC+.

    Away he hit 12 homers with a .269 average, .200 ISO and 129 wRC+.

    However, his metrics, in particular his quality of contact numbers, did not fluctuate between being away or not. And that lies the problem for Tucker.

    He set new career lows with an 88.5 MPH avgEV, 6.4% barrel rate and 36.3% hard-hit rate. His xStats also were career lows.

    His plate discipline and hit tool metrics were just as good as ever and that is reflected in a 12.4% BB% and 16.7% K%.

    We also only saw a very small dip in bat speed (71.4 MPH, 0.7 MPH lower than 2025).

    It is hard to justify taking Tucker in the first couple of rounds but given his history of first-round production, managers would be foolish to completely write-off Tucker for 2027. He most likely will still be considered a top-50 draft choice in 2027.

    Noelvi Marte – Cincinnati Reds

    Any time a top-150 selection spends more time in the minors than in the majors, any ‘duds’ list will certainly need to include that dude.

    Enter Noelvi Marte.

    The big question on everyone’s mind is – Is Marte just a Quad-A slugger that will never reach his full potential in the majors?

    After showing signs of progress in 2025 with 14 homers, 10 steals and .263 average in 360 PA, he hit only six homers with seven steals while slashing .189/.229/.321 in 2026.

    What happened?

    First, the barrel rate dropped four points from 9.0% to just 5.0% and his hard-hit rate dropped over six points from 36.3% to 30.2%.

    The ground balls also reared their ugly head with a 55.4% ground ball rate, at the sacrifice of his line drive rate the plummeted to 10.1%. That is the biggest explainer as to why the average dropped as his 34.5% fly ball rate and ability to pull allowed him return at least six homers in only 201 PA.

    We also saw his chase rate jump back up from 33.0% O-Sw% (outside zone swing rate) in 2025 to a 40.6% in 2026.

    It is likely that Marte will need to earn a starting job next year in camp and even if he does win the starting job, he would not be anything more than a late-round flyer in any league in which he gets drafted on the off-chance he turns in a Jordan Walker-esque late breakout season. He will only be 25 in 2027, one year older than Walker.

    Julio Rodriguez – Seattle Mariners

    After coming through with his second 30/30 season in 2026. Rodriguez took a step back and produced 22 homers, 22 steals, 71 RBI, 69 runs and a .247 average in 654 plate appearances. This was not what managers had in mind when they drafted J-Rod late in the first round of 2026 drafts.

    The quality of contact regressed some but not by a ton as the barrel rate went from 9.8% to 8.8% and the hard-hit rate went from 48.0% to 43.7%.

    In fact, most, if not all, of Rodriguez’s metrics were fairly similar with any drop off being minimal.

    His SwStr% and contact% all were better this year, as was his in-zone contact rate (up nearly five points to 87.0%).

    He even did a better job keeping the ball out of the dirt with an improved ground ball rate (47.2% to 41.5%).

    The bat speed went up a tad as well to 76.6 MPH with a 67.2% FastSw%.

    He will fall into the second round for sure and given there was no corresponding drop off in metrics, he will be a great buy there.

    George Springer – Toronto Blue Jays

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    October 6, 2026, 2:45 pm