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August 27, 2024, 12:41 pm
For most NBA and fantasy basketball fans, the summer months can be fairly boring after free agency and Summer League. You turn off your Woj and Shams notifications, you twiddle your thumbs, and await the days of September when your fantasy commissioner messages the group chat to see if everyone is back in this season. However, if you are like me as a dynasty manager, these are actually some of the most exciting months. This is when I’m scouring opposing teams’ rosters in my leagues, looking for opportunities to build up the value and set up my team for success down the road. I am looking for players that seem to be undervalued by the league and determining which players of mine may be valued higher by opposing managers.
This is the heart of buys and sells. I went in-depth on what the concept buys and sells actually mean on the Punt Intended pod. For a quick summary, we are looking to trade for players that aren’t being discussed in the greater public as “buys” while simultaneously trading away players dynasty managers are not viewing as “sells.” You want to pounce on these targets (or trade them away!) before people realize what their actual value is for dynasty. Below, I have identified four buys and three sells that I do not see as widely discussed as…well, buys and sells.
Remember, just because I have a player listed as a “buy” does not mean I absolutely love them. It just means I think their value is higher than what it would cost to acquire them in a trade. Ditto for the sells; I don’t necessarily think they aren’t solid dynasty assets, but rather I believe you can garner more in trade for them than what their fantasy production will be for dynasty.
Dynasty Buys
Ivica Zubac
The case for Ivica Zubac as a buy is twofold. First, you would have to think Zubac plays more minutes per game than his 26.4 last season. More minutes? More production! That’s usually how it works! While the Clippers have been known as a team that embraces “5-out” basketball and will go centerless at times, the reality is coach Ty Lue hasn’t gone to those lineups as often recently. In the ‘22-’23 regular season, the Clippers played 2092 possessions on the court without Zubac, Mason Plumlee, or Moses Brown (all their classic centers on the roster) out of 7823 total season possessions per CleaningTheGlass. That yields a 26.7% rate of playing time without a center. Now let’s compare the ‘23-’24 regular season. In this season, the Clippers played 805 possessions on the court without Zubac, Mason Plumlee, Daniel Theis, or Moussa Diabate (again, all their classic centers) out of 7652 total season possessions. That yields a 10.5% rate of playing time without a center. Sure, roster differences partly account for this stark difference. That said, it is a drastic change up from previous seasons. With Mo Bamba the only additional nominal center on the roster this upcoming year, it’s pretty easy to envision a scenario where Zubac’s minutes increase.
Secondly, Zubac has become quite a solid center in his own right. On offense, he is mainly just a play-finisher. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as evidenced by his 86th percentile eFG% of 65.2% amongst big men via CleaningTheGlass. That isn’t the true impressive part though.
Do you want to take a guess at which player led the league in FG% of defended shots at the rim while defending at least 4.0 field goals of this shot type per game according to NBA.com’s stats? Ding ding ding it’s Zubac! He was one of the best rim protectors in the league. Zubac arguably had a case to make one of the All-Defensive Teams, and it’s a shame he did not even receive one vote. Why does this matter for fantasy? An All-Defense caliber center is the sort of player you want to play minutes for your team. Say it with me – more minutes, more production!
I haven’t even touched on the potential for some more pick-and-roll opportunities with James Harden taking a greater share of usage. That would only increase his fantasy output even more, emphasizing his reliable play finishing talent. Add all of this up, and Zubac is in line for a career fantasy season that would in turn build his dynasty value.
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