Week 3 Fantasy Preview: Broncos @ Dolphins

  • Denver Broncos (0-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-0)

    Broncos (+235) @ Dolphins (-290): O/U 48.0
    Broncos  +6.5 (-110), Dolphins  -6.5 (-110)

    Writer’s Record:
    Bet: 4-7 -2.9u
    Lean: 5-4 +0.11u

    This seems like a massive mismatch on paper as the Dolphins are the class of the AFC and Broncos look more like a dumpster fire than a competent NFL franchise.  The Fins are 2-0 and have beat the Chargers and Pats, and the lowly Broncos have lost to the Raiders and Commanders.  This game does feel a bit like a trap as all the bets are going to be heavily on the Dolphins and to be less than a TD favorite seems too good to be true.  The Broncos appear to be stuck in neutral or worse reverse as their defense has taken a step back this season while their offense continues to spin their wheels. Before the season this would have looked like a defensive matchup, but so far through two weeks, the Broncos are ranked 16th and the Dolphins 24th. The Dolphins are the number-one offense in the league, while Broncos are ranked 16th.  The story within the story is if WR Jaylen Waddle (concussion) can get cleared before the game because if he can’t, it will all be on Tyreek Hill and he’s facing potentially the best corner in the league in Patrick Surtain II.

    Main Storylines to Watch

    Mano a Mano: Superstar corner Patrick Surtain has only allowed four receptions this season and if Jaylen Waddle can’t go, it will be worth watching Surtain and Hill battle all day.  In reality they will probably play each other to a draw with Hill getting loose for some underneath yards and Surtain making sure doesn’t every get behind him.  Without Waddle and with a fully blanketed Hill, it will be interesting to see if Tua Tagovailoa can keep this offense humming without his other two pillars firing.

    Let Russ Compost: Everyone had an excuse last season for why Russell Wilson looked so terrible, but those were supposed to have been addressed in the offseason with a beefed up offensive line and new coach to jumpstart the offense.  Through two games, it looks like business as usual as Wilson looks like a shell of his former self.  Barring a miraculous change in the coming weeks, it does look like Russ is cooked. The sheer counting stats look pretty good, but the eye test says that he can no longer pull rabbits out of his hat.  Getting Jerry Jeudy fully healthy along with the evolution of Marvin Mims might apply a tourniquet for now, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that he just can’t make the same throws that he did in Seattle.  The Broncos are a team to fade in every respect until they address the elephant in the room.

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