November 21, 2023, 9:53 pm
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Eagles(+124) @ Chiefs(-148): O/U 45.0
The Week 11 Monday night matchup is a Super Bowl rematch from last year with the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) traveling to face the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2). The Chiefs came away victorious in Super Bowl LVII, but the game was a back-and-forth thriller. Both teams come into this 2023 regular season matchup off of their bye weeks. Chiefs beat AFC foe Miami Dolphins in Germany in Week 9, while the Eagles beat divisional foe Dallas Cowboys in Week 9. Both teams are currently the number seeds in their respective conferences. This should be a very fun primetime matchup where we learn which Swift will come away victorious.
Leans: 13-27 -6.97u
Bets: 16-24 -9.51u
Main Storylines to Watch
Can someone else step up in the passing game to support Mahomes and Kelce? Mahomes stats are down from previous seasons and it is not a coincidence that this is the worst group of pass-catching options that he has had in his career. Kelce is getting older and no WR has stood out from the bunch. Rashee Rice has had his moments, Skyy Moore has been up and down, Kadarius Toney has been as unreliable as advertised, and Mecole Hardman has returned to be a glorified gadget guy. We cannot forget about Justin Watson who has returned from injury recently to take snaps away from everyone else. Nine players caught a pass in the Chiefs Week 9 victory with 11 players receiving a target. Last season, JuJu Smith Schuster stepped up to provide a reliable pass catcher other than Kelce, and in previous seasons Tyreek Hill dominated defenses for the Chiefs. The Chiefs need someone else to step up to take some pressure off of Mahomes and Kelce in the passing game.
How does Jalen Hurts mobility look after a week of rest? Hurts was quoted saying the bye week could not have come at a better time for him. We can assume he was referring to the extra rest he was able to give his knee over the bye week. He looked hobbled prior to the bye, but he never missed a game or practice with the injury. Hurts arguably out-played Mahomes in the Super Bowl other than the unfortunate fumble he had. A big reason Hurts was so successful was due to his mobility inside and out of the pocket. If Hurts can be more mobile in this game, the Eagles have a prime opportunity to pull of the upset.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes: Patrick Mahomes had two quiet performances in a row prior to the bye week. Andy Reid is one of the best in the business at game planning and he is elite after the bye. Mahomes is an auto-start and I expect a top-five performance from him against this Eagles defense that has been a top matchup for opposing QBs.
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is the clear lead back for the Chiefs, but this Eagles matchup is a tough one for opposing RBs. I would start Pacheco as an RB3 in this matchup with the upside to be more if he scores. Jerrick McKinnon is the pass-catching back for this RB room and he limits Pacheco’s upside due to targets going more his way instead of Pacheco. McKinnon should not be started on his own unless you are desperate for bye-week fill-in options. If Pacheco can earn some more receiving work as the season progresses, he could turn into an autostart at the RB position for fantasy.
Chiefs WRs: The Eagles are the best matchup for opposing WRs in terms of fantasy output. The issue for the Chiefs is we do not know who the lead WR is for this team. My best bet is Rashee Rice and I would start Rice as a deep flex option in this game. Justin Watson has come on as of late as well, but Rice has been more consistent. For all we know, this could be a Marquez Valdes-Scantline or Mecole Hardman game, but Rice has the best peripherals out of all of these WRs.
Travis Kelce: Travis Kelce is the top guy for this passing offense and there are rumors Ms Swift will be in attendance for this game (I am not talking about D’Ande Swift’s mother either). Kelce is always an autostart and this Eagles defense should have fits covering him with their current safety and linebacker options.
Jalen Hurts: Even a hobbled Hurts was good for fantasy. With the potential that we will see a more mobile Hurts, he is a top-three option this week for fantasy. Just a reminder, Hurts threw for over 300 yards and rushed for 70 with four total touchdowns in the Super Bowl loss last year.
D’Andre Swift: The Chiefs are a bottom-half fantasy option for opposing RBs. Swift was inefficient in Week 9, but he still had 18 rushes and two receptions in that contest. Swift is the clear lead back on an explsosive Philadelphia offense. He should be started as a high-end RB2 this week.
A.J. Brown: Brown sadly broke his streak of 125+ yard receiving games in Week 9. Brown still managed seven catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Fantasy owners will take that production any day. Brown should finish as a top three WR overall this year. Start him always.
DeVonta Smith: Smith’s best games last year came when Dallas Goedert was sidelined. With Goedert out for a few weeks, I expect Smith to put up low-end WR1 numbers. Start Smith with the expectation of a WR10 to WR15 type of performance this week.
TE Room: Goedert broke his arm in Week 9 and is expected to miss around 3 games. It is not clear who the top option at TE is now. Jack Stoll is more of a blocking tight end. Grant Calcaterra is seen as more of a receiving threat, but his lack of blocking capabilities has limited his playing time this year. The Eagles gave up small draft capital to add the physically talented Albert Okuegbunam, but he has yet to see the field for the Eagles. I avoid this TE group in Week 11 but keep an eye to see if any of them is involved enough to be a TE streamer while Goedert is sidelined.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Vegas projected score of this game is 24.00 Chiefs to 21.00 Eagles. While this is a hyped game due to it being a Super Bowl rematch, neither team will be super hurt by losing this matchup. Any tie in the number one overall seed races for their respective conferences goes to the team with the better conference record. A loss for either team against a team from the opposite conference will not do much damage. I am shying away from money line or spread in this game. Looking at the anytime touchdown odds, the Swift and Smith odds stuck out to me. Kelce was negative odds, and I don’t trust Pacheco to score on this Eagles defensive front. Swift has had a touchdown drought but his touch numbers are there (plus it’s fun to bet on D Swift to score with T Swift potentially in the stands). Smith was a stud last year when Goedert missed time, so I expect him to step up with the extra targets available in this offense.
Lean: D’Andre Swift Anytime TD (+145) 1u to win 1.45u (DraftKings)
BET: DeVonta Smith Anytime TD (+255) .5u to win 1.27u (DraftKings)