November 21, 2023, 9:52 pm
Dallas Cowboys (6-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Cowboys(-550) @ Panthers(+410): O/U 42.5
The Dallas Cowboys (5-3) travel east to face the Carolina Panthers (1-8). The Cowboys took care of business at home against the struggling New York Giants in Week 10. While the Panthers have a worse record than the Giants at the moment, the Panthers are currently a more competitive team than the Giants. The Panthers are coming off of a mini-bye after losing in the Week 10 Thursday night matchup against the Bears.
Leans: 13-27 -6.97u
Bets: 16-24 -9.51u
Main Storylines to Watch
Will the mini-bye help the Panthers keep this competitive? The Panthers are double-digit underdogs at home in Week 11. They had a few extra days to prepare for the Cowboys and have no reason to lose since their first-round pick belongs to Chicago. The rest of the 2023 season is dedicated to getting the most development out of Bryce Young. The Cowboys have already lost one game they were favored by double digits against the Cardinals. The Panthers will be motivated after losing to the Bears last week.
Can the Cowboys capitalize on their schedule before it gets more difficult? The Cowboys are understandably 10-point favorites in this game. After losing to the Eagles in Week 9, the Cowboys played the injured Giants in Week 10 and now face off against the worst-seeded Panthers before playing the Commanders who are in a rebuild/rebrand with their new owner. After those three games, the Cowboys play five teams in a row that are projected to be playoff teams. The Cowboys need these three victories to stay in the divisional race and give themselves a cushion if they lose against the better teams that come along later in their schedule. The Cowboys already lost once as a double-digit road favorite in Week 3 against the Cardinals and they cannot afford to do it again against Carolina.
Bryce Young: Young has not been a good fantasy asset in his rookie year. Despite his struggles, I actually like Young to finish in the QB15 to QB20 range in Week 11. Young’s two best fantasy performances came in a blowout loss to a high-powered Lions offense and the week after the Panthers’ bye against the Texans. Yes, the Cowboys have a better defense than both of those teams, but this matchup is a mix of both of his previous two best-game circumstances. The Cowboys offense has been putting up a lot of points recently and the Panthers had a mini-bye after the Thursday night matchup last week. I think a game of around 250 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception is in the cards this week. That will be enough to make him a serviceable two-QB league starter.
Chuba Hubbard/Miles Sanders: Chuba is the starter over Miles Sanders. Both players still have a role on the offense but Chuba should see around 12 to 15 touches a game while Sanders is more likely to see seven to 10 touches a game. This Cowboys defense is a tough matchup and the Panthers are expected to be playing from behind, so I would not start either one of these RBs. For one of these RBs to be worth a start they will need to perform in the receiving game, but neither one of them has been a consistent threat there. I would start Antonio Gibson over both of these players in Week 11, and Gibson is the lowest-rostered player of the three RBs according to Yahoo.
Adam Thielen: Thielen may have disappointed with just six catches for 42 yards, but he still had 10 targets in the game. Thielen is the most trusted pass-catcher on this Panthers’ offense and he is the WR8 overall in PPR leagues through Week 10. Thielen is an auto-start despite his game not being very flashy.
TE Group: Hurst is widely considered the TE1 on this Panthers team but Tommy Tremble and Stephen Sullivan have a combined total of 14 targets over the past three weeks while Hurst on his own has 10 targets in those games. There is enough of a spread in TE work that no one is valuable enough to roster in fantasy.
Dak Prescott: Prescott has four straight 24-plus-point fantasy performances with last week being his best performance of the year. Prescott is rapidly rising the fantasy QB ranks after a slow start to the 2023 season. There are very few QBs I would rather have in fantasy due to Prescott’s juicy end-of-the-year schedule. He is an autostart and could be a league winner.
Tony Pollard: Pollard continues to struggle despite his offense’s success. I would still buy Pollard if the fantasy onwer in your league is worried about Rico Dowdle’s emergence last week. The Cowboys destroyed the Giants and let the backups come in and finish the game. There was no need to get extra wear and tear on Pollard. The COwboys schedule gets harder soon and Pollard is still the best option at RB on this team. He is an RB2 for this week due to the potential of a similar game script to last week.
CeeDee Lamb: There are only two WRs I would take over CeeDee for the rest of this season, and they are A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill. Lamb has been dominant and there is no reason to speak anymore on him. Start him and enjoy the results.
Brandin Cooks: Cooks went off last week with 173 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions. Last week was one of three games on the season with over ten fantasy points in half-point PPR. I would not start Cooks as anything more than a flex. Cooks is the third option on this team behind Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson.
Jake Ferguson: If you saw the Cowboys put up 49 points, you might’ve been slightly disappointed with his four-catch performance for 26 yards and a touchdown, but that is a compliment for how good Ferguson has been as of late. Ferguson is an auto-start week in and week out with the way Prescott is playing and targeting him.
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The Vegas projected score of this game is 26.50 Cowboys to 16.00 Panthers. The Cowboys just need to leave this game with a win. I like the Panthers to keep this game closer than Vegas projects, and I like Bryce Young to outperform expectations with the extra time to prepare for this game. I do not think the Panthers will win, but I could see a back door cover with Cowboys’ defense being more worried about the clock than Bryce Young dinking and dunking his way down the field.
Lean: Panthers Alt Spread +7.5 (+129) 1u to win 1.29u (DraftKings)
BET: SGP – Bryce Young Over 198.5 Passing Yds and Over 0.5 Pass TDs (+156) 1u to win 1.56u (DraftKings)