November 21, 2023, 9:53 pm
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) @ Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Raiders(+625) @ Dolphins(-950): O/U 46.0
The Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) travel east to face the Miami Dolphins (6-3) in an important AFC showdown for playoff seeding. The Raiders took care of business at home against the struggling New York Jets in an ugly Week 10 Sunday night primetime matchup. The Dolphins are coming off their bye in Week 10 but lost to the Chiefs in their last game before the bye. The Raiders are 2-0 since firing their head coach and seem to be coming together for their interim head coach. The Dolphins still have yet to beat a team with a record at or above .500 and the combined record of the 6 teams they have beaten is 15-42.
Leans: 13-27 -6.97u
Bets: 16-24 -9.51u
Main Storylines to Watch
How does the Dolphins’ running game share touches now that Achane is back? Raheem Mostert is the RB2 overall. He has had plenty of success all season in this offense. Prior to Achane’s injury that placed him on IR, Achane started earning more carries and touches than Mostert. In the three games prior to Achane’s injury, Mostert had 30 carries, 14 receiving targets, and five touchdowns compared to Achane’s 37 carries, 10 receiving targets, and seven touchdowns. Achane also out-gained Mostert 518 to 265 in those three games. It is hard to predict Achane will be that successful moving forward, but he was clearly the more effective and explosive back when he touched the ball.
Can the Raiders salvage their season with a playoff berth? The Raiders are currently the nine seed in the AFC just one-half game behind the last wildcard slot. They are still very much in play to make the playoffs. The last two wins have come against pretty poor offenses in the New York Jets and Giants. Their next 5 matchups consist of the Dolpins, Chiefs twice, Vikings, and Chargers. All four of those teams have top-half of the league offenses. Aidan O’Connell needs to be more productive and avoid turnovers in order to keep this Raiders team in the hunt. Its not impossible due their current standing, but the Raiders will need much-improved play on offense to keep up in the AFC.
Tua Tagovailoa: Tuanon members might come after me for saying this, but all Tua has to do is get the ball in his offensive weapons’ hands and let them do the rest. With a top-tier talent returning, Tua has one more weapon he can dump the ball to and watch his yardage numbers soar. Tua is a top-ten starter this week and the rest of the season.
Raheem Mostert: While Mostert is the RB2 overall this season, I would only start him as an RB2 in the RB15 to RB20 range overall in Week 11. Mostert was losing the lead role prior to Achane’s injury and his return at least means there will be a bigger split in RB touches compared to the previous weeks when Achane was on IR.
De’Von Achane: This is Achane’s first game back off of IR. Achane was a monster prior to going down, and no other running back on the Dolphins stepped up to take a significant load from Mostert. I would start Achane as a high-upside RB2 in this matchup. When Achane touches the ball, good things tend to happen.
Tyreek Hill: There is no need to waste anyone’s time here. Start Hill and enjoy the results.
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is still an auto-start due to his talent and target share on this explosive offense. I do worry that adding back Achane as another offensive weapon that McDaniels can scheme up touches for might limit schemed-up touches for Waddle. Hill will always be the number one option at WR which means his workload is less likely to be affected by the return of another offensive weapon. I do not think Waddle will be too affected, but it is worth keeping an eye on as Achane is worked back into the offense.
Durham Smythe: Smythe is always on the field, but he does not seem to be a part of this offense’s game plan. He is not worth rostering or starting in any league setting.
Las Vegas Raiders
Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell has won his last two games as the starting QB for the Raiders, but his stats do not scream fantasy-relevant starting QB. He is a game manager at this stage in his career, and fantasy owners should hope he continues to feed Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs to ensure their value stays put. O’Connell is a streamer or bye-week fill-in option in two QB leagues only.
Josh Jacobs: In the Raiders’ last two victories, Jacobs received 26 and 27 carries on the ground. The Raiders are feeding Jacobs and it has worked as of late. The Raiders should continue to lean on Jacobs to prop up their rookie QB. Start Jacobs as a low-end RB1 in this matchup. The game script might force the Raiders to pass more, but Jacobs is capable in the receiving to serve as a safety blanket dump-off option.
Davante Adams: Adams has been the top option for O’Connell in both of the Raiders’ last two wins. O’Connell limits Adams’ upside, but Adams can still be started as a WR2 option for the rest of the year due to the target volume he receives. The game script might force the Raiders to pass more in this matchup and Adams should be the number one target.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers’ touches have decreased immensely in the past two games with O’Connell leading the offense. I would avoid starting Meyers in all league types. Rookie QBs historically have been bad for their WRs in fantasy, and Meyers is not the top receiving option in this offense. Meyers is a bench option only.
Michael Mayer: Michael Mayer scored last week and was second on the team in targets with five. Mayer has been an inconsistent fantasy performer, and even in his top weeks, he still has a limited upside. There are better options on the waiver wire in your leagues.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Vegas projected score of this game is 29.75 Dolphins to 16.25 Raiders. De’Von Achane returns this week and I expect him to start back right where he left off. I will take his anytime TD plus odds. The Raiders have been scrappy as of late, and the Dolphins have yet to beat a team with a record at or above .500 on the year. It is hard to predict the Raiders to pull off this upset on the road, but I like them to keep it closer than the 13.5-point spread that Vegas currently has. Give me +10.5 with increased odds.
Lean: Raiders Alt Spread +10.5 (+119) 1u to win 1.19u (DraftKings)
BET: De’Von Achane Anytime TD (+110) 1u to win 1.10u (DraftKings)