November 11, 2023, 11:19 am
Green Bay (3-5) at Pittsburgh(5-3)
ML Packers (+142) @ Steelers (-170): O/U 38.5
Packers +3 (-102), Steelers -3 (-118)
Last week the Packers were able to break a four-game losing streak at Lambeau with a win over the Rams while the Steelers held off rookie Will Levis and the Titans at home for a 20-16 win. Both teams struggle to put up points in the first half of the games. The Packers rank 32nd in the league, scoring. 4.5 points in the first half while the Steelers rank 28th at 6.9 points.
Main Storylines to Watch
Can you keep starting George Pickens? Pickens has seen his targets and catches decrease over the last three weeks and he has only scored once in the last three games. Is this the week we see more targets go his way?
The Steelers RB workload. Jaylen Warren showed a lot last week with increased touches. Does the increased workload continue this week or will we continue to see a near-even split?
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love: Love is going to give you a safe floor in 2QB and SuperFlex leagues, as he has been a top-15 QB through nine weeks. He has only had three games where he has finished outside of the top 15. But he also doesn’t bring much of a ceiling either to consider for 1QB leagues as he has only scored more than 20 points twice this season and not since week 3.
Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon: Last week, the coaching staff said they were ready to unleash Jones, and they did. Jones got almost 60% of the snaps and 24 touches for 99 total yards against the Rams. Dillon got his lowest snap share of the season and only got nine carries and one reception. The Steelers give up the sixth most fantasy points to RBs this year. Jones is a RB2 start while Dillon would be a bench for me.
Packers WRs: We are getting close to seeing all Packers WRs hit the waiver wires in leagues. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have only had one game combined finishing inside the top 30 of WRs since week 5. Jayden Reed saw a massive cut in snaps last week, only getting three targets. Watson needs more endzone opportunities. In the last four weeks Kalif Reymond, Mecole Hardman, and Hunter Renfrow have as many red zone targets as Watson does. I would not want to start any Packers WRs this week but if you are in a bind for a WR3/flex, Watson would be my only start of the group.
Luke Musgrave: The Steelers rank third in the league for fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs this year and have not allowed a touchdown to a TE this season. While Musgrave had a top-10 finish last week at the position, I would look at other streaming options this week given the matchup like Cade Otton, Jonnu Smith, or Trey McBride.
Kenny Pickett: Pickett is at the bottom of your choices for a start in 2QB and SuperFlex leagues. He has thrown for just 160 and 73 yards in the last two games. He has only put up two passing touchdowns in his last five games.
Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren: Last week Warren tied his season high for touches, set a season-high in rush attempts, and finished with a career-high 88 rushing yards (over eight yards a carry). He was close to scoring last week getting down to the one-yard line on a run. Harris still had 18 touches last week, had his highest average yards per carry since week 4, and picked up a score. In his last three games, Harris has finished as the RB13, RB22, and the RB12. Harris can be an RB2 start this week, while Warren is a flex-worthy start.
Diontae Johnson/George Pickens: It’s been the Johnson show for the last three weeks. Johnson has gotten over a 30% target share and finished in the top 24 in each of his last three weeks. Pickens has only gotten three catches over his last two weeks and has seen his targets drop, finishing as the WR53 and WR93. I have Johnson as a solid WR2 start this week. Pickens has been vocal about his lack of involvement over the last week. This could be a squeaky wheel game for him, making him a WR3/flex play.
Steelers TEs: Until Pat Freiermuth returns from the IR, there is nothing to look at here for fantasy production.
- Betting Insight
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
These are two of the worst-scoring teams in the first halves of games this year. The under has hit in five out of the last six games for the Packers, each of the last five games for the Steelers, and seven of the eight games the Steelers have played this year.
Bet: U19.5 1st half (-105) (DraftKings)
Lean: U38.5 (-110) (DraftKings)