November 11, 2023, 10:06 am
Detroit Lions (6-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) Best Lines Available
Lions (-155) @ Chargers (+135): O/U 48.5 (-110)
Lions -3 (-110), Chargers +3 (-108)
Bet: 22-22 +2.9u
Lean: 7-5 +2.7u
The Detroit Lions are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They will travel to Los Angeles after their bye last week in search of a big win. The Chargers took care of business against the Jets but it was not pretty. In fact, none of their games have been pretty this year. While the Lions are atop the division, the Chargers certainly have the talent to make a push, but have lacked execution in close games.
Main Storylines to Watch
Will anybody step up in the absence of Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer? So far it has been just Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler providing for the Chargers offense. Rookie WR Quentin Johnston has been a massive disappointment so far, but will he have a game where it all clicks?
How will Gibbs and Montgomery coexist? A question we have been asking since the draft, but we learn more every week. Gibbs played very well in Monty’s absence, but will he come back and grab the workhorse role back immediately?
Jared Goff: Goff has not quite had the ceiling some may have been looking for, but he was an absolute bargain at ADP in most drafts. He is consistently among the running for a top 12 finish and rarely performs poorly. Goff should feel comfortable being back in LA and I do not expect the Chargers defense to give him too much trouble.
David Montgomery: Monty is back after quite some time away. The workhorse back has been extremely successful in his first year in Detroit and will return to high volume. Expect Jahmyr Gibbs to eat into his workload more than we saw at the beginning of the year, but HC Dan Campbell still talks like Montgomery will be the lead dog in the running game. I expect a good first game back barring any news about a snap count or setbacks.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Jahmyr Gibbs saw massive volume against the Raiders. With Montgomery making his return after last week’s bye, Gibbs will not receive the same 26 carries. He should, however remain a big part of the passing game and will likely be given more carries than he was at the beginning of the season. Gibbs is a solid flex/RB2 with high PPR upside.
Craig Reynolds: Despite 14 carries against the Raiders, Reynolds’s role is all but gone with the return of Montgomery this week. There are better dart throws on the wire than the RB3 for Detroit.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: ARSB has delivered most weeks and is a high floor player. He has not found the end zone much this year, but usually finds 100 yards and a good reception count for PPR formats. ARSB should be started everywhere comfortably.
Sam LaPorta: LaPorta has been the unsung hero of many fantasy teams with how late in the draft he came off the board. He lead the team in targets the last time we saw the Lions play and is definitely Goff’s second favorite target. LaPorta should continue to see high volume and be a trustworthy TE1 play.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert: Herbert had an extremely rough outing against the Jets, but the Lions defense is not quite as scary. The problem for Herbert is the lack of reliable options behind Ekeler and Allen. If the defense can take away these options, Herbert does not trust anyone else on the team right now. I expect him to look much better this week, but the Lions pass rush is underrated and could give him trouble if they come with the right gameplan.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is locked in to start every week, especially in PPR formats. He is elite at finding the end zone despite not being terribly efficient running the ball and is a consistent threat in the passing game. When Herbert is under duress he is always looking for Ekeler or Allen.
Keenan Allen: Allen has been incredible despite his age looming over his head every fantasy draft season. He will continue to see super high target colume with a lack of production from the rest of the WR room. Lock him in as a WR1 play.
Quentin Johnston: Johnston can barely find targets even without Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer playing. There is a lot to be concerned about and while I cannot recommend starting him anywhere, it is still worth keeping an eye on whether he can find some footing. If he has a late-blooming season it will happen quickly and his price on the waiver wire will be astronomical.
Gerald Everett/Donald Parham: Neither TE for the Chargers has seen much involvement, even with the injuries in the WR room. It would be hard to trust either of these guys for more than a dart throw at a potential TD.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Lions are a legit football team on both sides of the ball and should be respected as such. The Chargers are a good team that struggles when it really matters. The Chargers can probably keep it interesting, but I expect the Lions to take care of business on the road and cover the three point spread.
BET: Detroit Lions -3.0 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u (FanDuel)
BET: Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+165) 1u to win 1.65u (FanDuel)