November 11, 2023, 10:06 am
New Orleans Saints (5-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-4) Best Lines Available
Saints (-145) @ Vikings (+126): O/U 40.5/41.0 (-110/-110)
Saints -2.5 (-120), Vikings +3.0 (-120)
Bet: 22-22 +2.9u
Lean: 7-5 +2.7u
The Vikings are red hot, victors of four straight games after a terrible start to the season. Joshua Dobbs came in with no practices under his belt and led the team to victory last week. The Saints have been tough to get a read on all year. Some weeks the defense is dominant and winning games, but whenever they are not, the offense cannot keep up even after acquiring Derek Carr this offseason.
Main Storylines to Watch
Is Joshua Dobbs back to fantasy legend status with Minnesota’s weapons? He had a wonderful start to the year, but fell flat in Arizona before being traded. He looked great last week, but will that last against a strong defense?
Is Taysom Hill going to continue this rapid pace? Taysom has been on a heater, throwing, catching and running for TDs left and right. Surely the TD rate will not continue, but is he good enough to warrant a weekly start?
New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr: Carr has frankly been unremarkable in NO and the situation should not change. Taysom Hill is eating into his workload, especially in the red zone. Carr’s ceiling has been stolen away and his floor has not been incredible either. I prefer to pivot away wherever possible. The Vikings defense has been hit or miss, but the Saints offense has not made it too hard on defenses yet this year.
Alvin Kamara: Kamara was another victim of Taysom Hill, taking two fewer carries than him. Kamara is always relevant in the receiving game and carries much more value in PPR than standard. Kamara has a safe floor with receptions and is a RB2 with TD and receiving upside.
Chris Olave: Olave has been the only reliable receiving option for the Saints, but the offense is not built to provide a ton of receiving yards. He found the end zone last week which saved what would have been a disappointing game. Carr has not been able to support much in terms of receiving threats, but hopefully Olave retains enough volume to be relevant. He is a WR2 this week.
Taysom Hill: Taysom Hill has been the most fun player on this team to own in fantasy. His involvement in the run game provides a good floor and he is adept at finding the end zone rushing, passing, or receiving. A true Swiss-Army-Knife role has been opened to him and his usage is high. It feels like he will drop off a cliff at some point, but I am riding the bus until it does.
Joshua Dobbs: The Joshua Dobbs hype train was derailed for a moment, but it is back on, baby. Except, this week is probably tough. The Saints do an excellent job limiting QBs and Dobbs has not been excellent, outside of last week, for quite some time now. I fear that a defense like the Saints with a full week to prepare for Dobbs will make it hard on the new Vikings signal caller. The health of Justin Jefferson will be a big factor in how things play out.
Alexander Mattison: The situation for Mattison just got complicated. Cam Akers is done for the year, which opens him up to be the workhorse again. That role, however, has not carried much value this year. The other factor here is how many rushing attempts will go to Joshua Dobbs. We saw him eat a decent slice of the pie in Arizona and in his first game in the land of lakes. Mattison will have to improve his play to warrant week to week fantasy starts and the Saints front will make it hard on him. He could be a disappointment to those happily firing him up after the Akers injury.
Justin Jefferson: It currently looks like Jefferson will not be able to play this week as he and HC Kevin O’Connel do not want to trot him out until he is 100%. He was a limited participant in practice both Wednesday and Thursday. He boosts Dobbs’s line quite a bit should he play. Jefferson is officially questionable for Sunday’s game.
Jordan Addison: Addison has been incredible lately, but a little less so since Cousins was injured. The ceiling is not nearly as high for any of Minnesota’s receivers, but Addison should still be the lead dog in the receiver room and the Vikings could be very short-handed if Osborn is unable to clear concussion protocol and Jefferson remains out.
K.J. Osborn: Osborn is still currently in concussion protocol, making his status up in the air for the game against the Saints.
Brandon Powell: While he has not had a big role and whenever Jettas returns, it will be even smaller, Powell was trusted by Dobbs when the game was on the line and found the game winning TD. It is highly unlikely he will carve out a role, but keep an eye out just in case there is some sort of chemistry there between the new QB and the receiver.
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is likely the top receiver with Jefferson out. Dobbs enjoyed showing love to the TEs in Arizona and Hockenson is much better than the pair of young and old out west. Hockenson has been locked in around 10 targets each week which gives him a great floor in PPR formats. He has not found a ton of TDs, but he can be started as a TE1.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Vikings are hot, but face new challenges with injury. The Saints defense is strong, but can the offense do enough to win? I like the Vikings defending their home turf and a low-scoring, sloppy affair.
BET: Minnesota Vikings +3.0 (-120) 1.2u to win 1u (FanDuel)
BET: Under 41.0 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u (Bet365)
BET: Taysom Hill Anytime TD (+210) 1u to win 2.1u (FanDuel)