Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

Dolphins (-+140) @ Chargers (-165): O/U 51

Chargers -3 (-110), Dolphins +3 (-110)

This might be the best game on the entire Sunday slate and if a couple things break right, it should soar over the 51 point total.  Both teams are bringing back the same core with some minor tweaks on each end.  The biggest addition for either time won’t take place on the field and is on the sidelines.  Kellen Moore was brought in to run the offense after Joe Lombardi failed miserably to get the Chargers to consistently attack downfield.  Moore will bring a multi-pronged offensive attack that will finally utilize Justin Herbert’s cannon arm and while the Dolphins defense is much improved, there is going to be no stopping this Chargers’ attack once it gets moving downhill.   The Dolphins are hoping their own QB Tua Tagovailoa will be able to stay healthy and avoid another concussion after an offseason of learning how to protect his head when he falls.  Yes, this is a real thing.  I expect this game to be a fast paced passing clinic where whoever has the ball last is probably going to win the game.

Main Storylines to Watch

ADOT, ADOT, ADOT:  The only number that matters for the Chargers this season is average depth of target.  Herbert’s 6.9 ADOT last season was ranked 39th among QBs and I expect that number to jump considerably right out of the game.  Last season was almost a year from hell for the Chargers and Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all battled injuries all season.  With Herbert finally unleashing his best asset and the Chargers WR room stacked with four legitimate weapons, all signs points to Herbert actualizing his potential instead of everyone just talking about it.

Do Coordinators Really Matter That Much? We talked about Moore reinventing the wheel on offense for the Chargers, but the Dolphins also beefed up their coordinator game bringing in Vic Fangio to resuscitate a defense that finished 6th worst against the pass last season.  Jalen Ramsey was supposed to bridge that gap, but he’s out until December and the Dolphins will rely on pressuring the QB in order to alleviate pressure on their secondary.  Fangio is the real deal and he’s got quite the test in Week 1 trying to keep Herbert from letting it fly.  Both teams have mentioned they want to commit to the run, but for two teams that finished in the bottom-five in rushing attempts, I will believe it when I see it.

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