• Every Sunday this season, I will share my pitching guide for that week. It will include a table of the projected 2-start starting pitchers and their opponents, with my recommendations on starts and sits (including for weekly rosters), plus my recommended pitching streams for the week.

    WordPress Data Table Plugin

    For my recommended pitching streams, I will only suggest pitchers who are rostered in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues. All starts are projected, but are subject to change due to injury, a team deciding to have a bullpen day, expand to a six-man rotation, etc. Stats are through Sunday morning.

    Monday, Apr 13

    Grant Holmes – ATL – vs MIA – 29% rostered

    Though his strikeout rate is down from last season, Holmes is off to a solid start this season. He has 14 strikeouts over 17.2 innings, with eight walks, two home runs allowed, a 2.55 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He has one win and two quality starts. He currently has the lowest average exit velocity ( avgEV 86.7 MPH), barrel rate (6.1%) and hard hit rate (28.6%) of his career, which is why his career high 46.9% fly ball rate has not been a detriment. He has struggled to throw strikes, with a 45.8% zone rate, resulting in a 45.4% swing rate and just a 27.7% chase rate, but batters still have a 12.7% swinging strike rate and just a 72% contact rate.

    Though it is kind of a small sample size (115 plate appearances), the Marlins have struggled against righties on the road. They have a 76 wRC+, 27% strikeout rate and a .622 OPS, all of which are in the bottom ten in the league. They’ve struggled to hit line drives and create hard hit balls, resulting in just two home runs and a 1:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio.

    Tuesday, Apr 14

    Ryan Weathers – NYY – vs LAA – 27%

    So far, so good for Weathers in pinstripes. He’s made three starts for the Yankees, totaling 16 innings. He has struck out 18 batters, walked five and allowed five earned runs. He has limited quality hits, with a 6.7% barrel rate, an 86.6 MPH avgEV and a hard hit rate of 40%. He has induced more ground balls than fly balls, but a very ugly 36.4% line drive rate that has been boosted by an unsustainable .378 BABIP. He has batters chasing at a career high rate (33.3%), with a contact rate two points lower than his career rate (76.6%) and a swinging strike rate just higher than his career rate (10.9%).

    The Angels have a below average offense when facing left-handed pitching, with a 93 wRC+, a .635 OPS and a 30.5% strikeout rate, the fourth highest in the league. They have hit more ground balls than fly balls, have the 10th lowest line drive rate (16.9%) and the third lowest hard hit rate (19.7%). In a much smaller sample size, they have been much worse on the road against lefties than at home.


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