Week 10 SNF Fantasy Football Preview : PIT vs. LAC

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  • SNF – Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers

    Point spread: PIT +2.5 | LAC -2.5

    Moneyline: PIT +130 | LAC -154

    Total: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5

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    Overview:

    The Sunday Night Football matchup for Week 10 features a pair of three-loss AFC teams looking to gain footing in the playoff race by winning a game that could wind up having more post-season implications than at first glance. The Pittsburgh Steelers are fresh off a commanding upset win over the Indianapolis Colts last week to move to 5-3 on the season, and Aaron Rodgers is playing some of his best football since exiting Green Bay a few seasons ago. The Chargers, on the other hand, had some fits from the lowly Titans in Week 9, but ultimately came out the victor, improving the team’s record to 6-3 and second in the AFC West. Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense have been humming at times this season, and Jaylen Warren has emerged as a blue-collar workhorse back that does all the dirty work, racks up fantasy points, and everything else in between. Justin Herbert has been excellent for much of the season, utilizing a vast array of weapons in the passing game, while also using his legs more than ever. The overall team defenses for both franchises have settled around the league average in EPA/Play allowed, but the Steelers have been torched through the air and give up the most passing yards per game this season, while the Chargers have been beaten more often on the ground this year. There is a limitless range of outcomes for this game, and it will be interesting to see if the Steelers can carry any momentum from their big win last week, and if their strategy will change against the Chargers’ offense.

    Quarterbacks:

    Aaron Rodgers has a couple of good fantasy performances this season, but more often than not he is barely clearing the QB2 bar on a weekly basis, regardless of whether the team’s winning or losing. Rodgers is the QB20 in FPPG this season, and has just two top-10 fantasy finishes at the position this season, requiring four passing touchdowns to get there in each one. Pittsburgh ranks 14th in EPA/Pass this season, and they also rank 11th in Offensive Pass Rate over Expected across the last four weeks. Where the Steelers have the advantage over the Chargers is in the trenches, as the Steelers have allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL this season, while the Chargers D is pressuring the QB at the 14th-highest rate in the NFL this season. Still, the Chargers’ secondary has been strong and matchup pretty well with Pittsburgh. Los Angeles gives up just the fourth-fewest QB fantasy points this season. On the other side of things, the Chargers’ OL allows the second-highest pressure rate this season, and they just lost OT Joe Alt for the year and will also be without OT Bobby Hart in this game. Justin Herbert enters this week tied for the QB4 overall in FPPG at the position this season, and he gets a fantastic matchup to take advantage of against the Steelers this week. The Steelers have been beaten on deep and in-breaking routes all season, which is exactly what has been Herbert’s bread-and-butter to multiple targets this year. The Steelers have given up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the year, and rank second in Defensive PRoE over the last month of the season, meaning the Chargers might have an eruption shot through the air in this game. However, with the OL depleted for Los Angeles, it will be a matter of whether they can quell the Steelers’ pass rush or not, as Pittsburgh are the best at defending the pass whenever they get pressure on the QB with TJ Watt and the rest of that front.

    Running Backs:

    The Steelers have gotten the best out of Jaylen Warren this season, and he’s emerged as a versatile back that can be deployed in just about any situation out of the backfield. The ground game is going to have to be where the Steelers attack the Chargers, as Los Angeles ranks 30th in the NFL at defending outside runs this season. If Warren gets good looks going outside the tackles in open space, it could be a big game for the four-year veteran RB, who is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Colts in Week 9. He’s tied for the RB18 overall in FPPG this season, and should continue to build on a stellar season against the Chargers on SNF. In Los Angeles, they’re still reportedly going to be without Omarion Hampton for several weeks, so Kimani Vidal will get another chance to lead what’s been one of the most effective ground games in the league in some areas. The Chargers’ offense has been particularly good at running outside the tackles, both with backfield ball-carriers and when Herbert scrambles outside the pocket and upfield. Vidal is cautiously optimistic RB2 in this matchup, but because the Steelers have been beaten through the air all season, the team’s production and scoring may trend towards the air more than the ground.

    Wide Receivers: 


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