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June 5, 2025, 9:04 am
Last Updated on June 5, 2025 9:05 am by goncaloteiga33 | Published: June 5, 2025
We’re finally here! Game one of the NBA Finals, with OKC being 9.5 points favourites at home against Indiana and an amazing O/U, standing at 231 points. When looking at playoff statistics, we can highlight that both OKC and Indiana have poor rebounding %s, standing at 11th and 13th out of 16 playoff teams, respectively. But the rebounding is where the weaknesses begin and end, with both teams being elite in turnover rate, assist rate and the efficiency metrics, with Indiana having an edge in these offensive stats, while OKC is elite in turnovers generated, points in the paint allowed and points off turnovers. All in all, Indiana has an extremely efficient offense while struggling in the rebounding and interior defense department, while OKC has one of the best defenses we’ve ever seen, at least statistically, but have shot only 33.6% from deep in the playoffs, despite still having an overall good efficiency. Where can we exploit these stats for fantasy value? We can start by Indiana’s 28.6 fta allowed in the playoffs, the most out of every team, as they will be facing the player who has driven to the hoop the most in the playoffs. Let’s get started!
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Tonight’s Prop
Tonight’s Draft Kings Games Picks
OKC -9.5
DFS Pillar Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Position: PG
Salary: $18,300 / $12,200
Throughout the NBA playoffs, SGA has averaged 11.8 points in the paint per game and 9.2 fta, all while driving to the hoop a playoff-high 20.2 times per game. Indiana’s recent statistics point towards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posing unsolvable problems for Indiana’s defense, who has allowed the most fta and the 5th most points in the paint to opposing teams in the playoffs. According to our projections, SGA should be around the 60 fpts mark, nearly 14 points more than our 2nd highest projection. With the aforementioned stats working in favour of SGA’s strongest abilities, the MVP is an incredible fantasy play.
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