Steelers (+9) @ Ravens (-9)

O/U 43.5

Important notes for Steelers:

I always like to say styles make fights and the history between these two teams screams take Tomlin and the points, but that is awfully hard to do right now.  Russell Wilson looks washed again as the Steelers rank 31st in expected points added (EPA) per play and 29th in QBR over the last month.  George Pickens looked disinterested in the last game of the season and the running game is going to run into a brick wall vs. the staunch BAL rush defense.  There is nowhere to hide for PIT in this game and if they can’t run the ball, Wilson will have it all on his shoulders, which isn’t a weight he can bear right now.  History says respect the underdog, the present says that the Steelers are a sinking ship running into a buzz saw of an iceberg.

Important notes for Ravens:

The BAL season is a tale of two teams, but mostly we’re talking about the defense. The Ravens had the worst pass-defense in the league for the first half of the season, but moving Kyle Hamilton back to safety has morphed them into a complete team and they have the best defense in the league over the last month.  The Steelers know how to play the Ravens and they make sure to keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket.  They don’t bite on QB run-options and will be content to let Derrick Henry run wild.  With no Zay Flowers and no Jackson run game, it’s possible the BAL offense isn’t able to fire on all cylinders.  Both teams are going to lean on the ground game and that bodes well for PIT keeping this game close, but I don’t see how the Steelers are going to put up points other than FGs.

The QBs: There couldn’t be a bigger disparity in QB play than Lamar Jackson vs. Russell Wilson.  Jackson might win b2b MVPs and Wilson is fighting for his life as he’s been under 220 yards passing in five straight games.  If Pickens can’t get his act together, the Steelers have no chance at making explosive plays and dinking and diming down the field will eventually result in catastrophic failure.  Wilson looks terrible right now, but he’s a big-game player and Jackson has struggled in the playoffs.  This game could be closer than it appears, but Wilson will need some luck and magic.  Jackson struggles to run vs. PIT and isn’t the same passer without Zay Flowers, so where will he make his mark vs. a defense that has held him to 28.9 QBR compared with a 70.6 mark against the rest of the league.  If Pickens can bounce back, PIT has a shot as Russ can flip the script with one moon-ball, but on the road vs. a crazy crowd, color me skeptical that the mercurial WR has a big game.

The RBs: This is going to be a double David vs. Goliath as Henry has proven he can destroy the Steelers and Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will have to carry more than their usual load.  I’ve loved Warren all season and in a negative game-script, his receiving yards is going to be a smash play.  Harris has looked good after struggling mid season, but will need to be heavily involved to be productive.  The Steelers need to run the ball to keep the pressure off Wilson, but they also can’t put him in third-and-long situations and have the pass-rush tee off.  It’s a double edged sword and they will need to be creative to find a balance between moving the sticks and staying aggressive.  The best bet is to rely on Warren early and keep the defense off-balance with screens and wheel routes and hopefully buy Wilson some extra time in the pocket.  Henry is going to go nuts.  PIT isn’t going to change their defensive strategy since they are great at limiting Jackson.  I see Henry getting 25 carries and over 100 yards and taking over late in the game as he is prone to do.

The WRs: With no Flowers and Diontae Johnson being waived, it’s all up to Rashod Bateman, who to his credit has had a breakout season.  Bateman has posted a career-high 15.2 aDoT, and he hauled in 11 passes of 20-plus yards to post a rock-solid 16.8 yards per reception.  He will act as the deep threat and possibly take Flowers’ role over the middle as Jackson knows he will be forced to stay in the pocket and have to get the ball out quickly.  I love Bateman in this game as long as he can stay healthy.  Pickens looked primed to breakout once Wilson was installed at QB.  They were connecting on deep balls every game and the PIT offense looked rejuvenated.  Then Pickens got hurt and he just looks lost right now.  He had multiple drops last game and the PIT coaching staff might have lost faith in him, it was that bad.  They also need him desperately as no one else on the team can do what he does for the offense.  I lean towards fading Pickens and embracing Calvin Austin more although it’s tough to love any pass-catchers on PIT right now.

The TEs: Aside from the running backs, this could be a heavy-TE game.  The Ravens are going to go two-TE sets a lot with no Flowers and I love Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews to be on the field for the majority of the game.  Andrews is back to a TD machine and Likely might end up being the most targeted player for BAL.  Andrews to score and Likely to go over his yard total is a safe bet.  Pat Freiermuth has also emerged as the only reliable pass-catcher on PIT as he has 15 grabs over his last two games.  With no options downfield, Wilson is forced to find his TE who is close to 10 yards a reception over those last 15 grabs.  The Ravens will live with Freiermuth getting catches over the middle, so it’s a safe bet that he stays heavily involved.

Best Bet: Lamar Jackson under 50.5 yards and Jaylen Warren over 21.5 yards for +225

I’m shocked the Jackson line is so high as we’ve seen how PIT shuts down his running game.  We get the bonus of potential kneel down yards as well if he somehow gets over the 50.  I love this bet and am shocked at the number.  Warren is going to be involved early or late, it doesn’t matter.  If PIT is done big late in the game, we’ve seen the Wilson will just check the ball down the field and Warren is the negative script back.  I don’t hate a ladder bet for his yards in this one.

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