Chargers (-3) @ Texans (+3)

O/U 42.5

Important notes for Chargers:

The Chargers were supposed to be rebuilding for next season as they overhauled the roster when new HC Jim Harbaugh rolled into tinsel town.  Instead, the Chargers only needed a quick reboot and once Justin Herbert got healthy, they were off to the races.  They finished the season on an 8-3 run and allowed the fewest points in the league (17.7).  The Texans were the darlings of the offseason, but it’s the Chargers who are ready to make their mark.  Herbert is playing the best football of his career and has a true number-one option in Ladd McConkey and plenty of supporting parts.  The Chargers aren’t ready to win the whole show this season, but they are not a team to be underestimated.  They tend to start strong and run out of gas as they averaging just over 10 points in the final 30 minutes of games. This flaw could become a liability in the NFL playoffs.

Important notes for Texans:

The Texans are a team of smoke and clown mirrors as they won their division, but never looked like a potential powerhouse.  The offense has been stuck in the mud all season and while they have suffered injuries at WR, the running game has sputtered and caused CJ Stroud to check down constantly.   Stroud has thrown for just 6.6 yards per attempt and a 59.9% completion rate while ranking fourth-last in adjusted EPA per play.  Joe Mixon has run into a wall over the last five games and while the schedule was a buzz saw, the o-line isn’t pulling its weight and has allowed the third-most sacks in the league.  If the Texans don’t start fast, they could fall behind and never catch up.

The QBs: This is a perfect QB battle of up-and-coming QBs as Stroud is dealing with the backlash that Herbert struggled with after a great rookie season.  Stroud only hit 280 pass yards three times after hitting the mark seven times a season ago despite missing two games as a rookie.  Whether it’s the o-line not giving him enough time or the gameplan calling for run plays on early downs, the offense looks terrible and isn’t likely to get on track against an elite defense with the pressure ratcheted up.  We have seen Stroud step up when it matters most as he lit up the Browns in his first playoff game last season, but the Chargers aren’t as fraudulent as the Browns.  The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 58.9% of their passes for 5.8 yards per play, 24 touchdowns but also 12 interceptions, an EPA of -0.11 which is fifth-lowest in the NFL, and a passer rating of 89.6.  Herbert meanwhile was 4th in the league with 280 yards passing per game and has plenty of weapons at his disposal.   Herbert should be able to move the ball at will despite the Texans boasting a solid pass rush and decent back line of defense.  Herbert threw for 281 yards and one TD in his only playoff game, but also suffered an epic meltdown as the Jags rallied down multiple scores.

The RBs: Joe Mixon started the season on fire with plenty of TDs and running for 100 yards like clockwork.  The schedule turned late and Mixon was brutal, only averaging 3.2 YPC over the last handful of games.  The Chargers rush defense isn’t the strength of their team as they allow 4.7 YPC, but a league-leading seven TDs to RBs.  We know the Texans won’t abandon the run, but how effective will it be if they continue to be predictable on early downs.  J.K. Dobbins missed four games before returning to play the final two games of the season.  He looks fine, but not as explosive as he was earlier in the season.  He played two bad rush defenses and while the volume was great, 18 and 19 carries, he still averaged under 4 YPC.  The Chargers want to pound the rock in theory, but they have really flourished letting Justin Herbert pick teams apart and unless the Chargers get out to an early lead,  Dobbins might have to do more with less.

The WRs: The best argument for betting HOU is Nico Collins as he emerged as one of the alpha WR1s this season.  He was the best WR in the league before he got hurt, and while he looks 100%, he’s not quite as dominant as he was pre-injury.  He’s also lost two big TDs to penalties, but regardless, the Texans need peak-Nico if they are going to have a chance.  The Chargers have had an easy path that has boosted their defensive stats, but you can be 100% that they will gameplan to stop Collins, who racked up more yards in his first two games than he did over his last four combined.  If Stroud isn’t right and Collins isn’t peaking, it’s going to be an uphill battle.  McConkey on the other hand is peaking with at least 85 yards in three straight.  With Josh Palmer unlikely to suit up and Quentin Johnston being a drop machine, expect Herbert to hyper-target McConkey, who has a knack for getting open everywhere on the field.  Johnston has some upside, but he’s too unpredictable and the drops in small games usually rear their ugly head in the bigger matchups.

The TEs: Will Dissly had a run mid-season where he was making the leap, but he lost two games due to injury and looked like he was getting back on track in the last game of the season.  I like Dissly in this game if Palmer is out because we know Herbert is going to have the ball in his hands.  Dissly is a solid bet to get plenty of action as a safety valve if the Texans decide to send pressure. Dalton Schultz has 29 plus receiving yards in five of his last eight games and might be involved more if the Chargers decide to double Collins.

Best Bet: Justin Herbert over 20.5 rushing yards and Ladd McConkey over 72.5 passing yards

The risk here is Herbert kneeling and losing a handful of yards at the end of the game.  This is legit terrifying, but otherwise expect Herbert to take off when under pressure as the Texans are great at sacking QBs.  Hopefully he sails over this number as he had 42 rush yards in the last game of the season.  McConkey is a must-bet until he goes under.  He’s clearly the best option and Herbert loves to find him as he has at least six grabs in the last seven games.  I really like this bet and want to explore some HOU unders as well.

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