Broncos (+9) @ Bills (-9)

O/U 47.5

Important notes for Broncos

This team is predicated on the offense of Bo Nix. Regardless of what people might say of this play this year, the stats bear out a much different picture. Bo Nix has 29 touchdowns (9th in the NFL) With 12 interceptions ( Tied for 99th in the NFL). The primary issue with this team is what they do in the 4th quarter with play calling And Bo Nix’s indecisiveness when trailing by 1-8 points. He has a much more frustrating touchdown-interception ratio of 7 to 4. Defensively, this team still graded out as the number one defense in fantasy with a total of 181 fantasy points. The Broncos defense also has the 7th best opponent yards per game at 317.1. 

Important notes for Bills

 Josh Allen, how special of a year did this guy have this season he bumped up another level, helping the Bills get the two seed in the AFC but also leading many fantasy managers to a title with a fantasy record 51.88  points against the Rams in week 14 and following that up with an equally impressive week 15 performance against the lions with 41.28. He also had 28 TDs ( tied for 7th in the NFL) and a QPR of 77.2 (2nd in the NFL). The issue with the Bills is just the amount of points their secondary gives up, particularly in those  Rams and Lions games we previously mentioned, where they gave up 40+  points in each game. 

The QBs: 

As we look at both quarterbacks, the favorable side is with Josh Allen, as we discussed in our important notes section. Ultimately it will be up to Bo Nix to be efficient but also not let the game get out of hand quickly. Time of possession will be a gigantic key for the Broncos, particularly in the second half of this game. The Broncos are 19th in the league in time possession with 29.51. They will need to get that number up much higher if they want to keep Josh Allen and this offense off the field. Much of that will be put on Bo Nix, expect short-route concepts to be the bread and butter of this offense. As discussed above, it is significantly more manageable for the Bills side, as Josh Allen has just had an incredible year. The reality is that he will have a much easier time getting down the field even with a stout Broncos defense this is where the time possession comes in as well as the Broncos will need to stay on the field as long as possible to give the defensive break on what’s going to be a difficult afternoon. 

The RBs:

The Broncos have a running back by committee Set up with Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin. While it’s fair to say that they have been effective, we would like to see one of them step up to the primary role in this critical game. Keep in mind that you will see a lot of Bo Nix on the ground as well, but the reality is that the Bills are just more favorable in this department with James Cook. James Cook finished with 16 TDs (Tied 1st in the NFL alongside Derrick Henry and Jahmry Gibbs) with 1,009 (16th in the NFL), But we want to focus on here with Cook is his carries at 207 (Tied 19th in the NFL).  While that may not look significant on the surface, it is essential to get him going as this offense, and Josh Allen feels more comfortable when he can get in the end zone with over 12 carries.

The WRs: 

 The wide receivers are the most fun part of this matchup. Beginning with Cortland Sutton, it was a rocky start to the year under a new rookie quarterback, but he finished the year with just over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs (Tied 13th in the NFL). We have also absolutely fallen in love with the rookie 7th-round pick out of Utah, Devaughn Vele. Head coach Sean Payton gave him high praise at a press conference this year, calling him the Broncos version of legendary Saints wide receiver Marcus Colston. “The strengths for him certainly are his hands. You guys saw it in camp. He has strong hands in traffic. He’s a guy that plays well over the middle,” Payton said. We certainly see a lot of those similarities as well. Expect Vele to make a significant impact. The BUF side is a little more complicated as the combined receiving talent of Amari Cooper, Rookie Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and leader of the pack Khalil Shakir helped Josh Allen to a successful season that should continue into the playoffs.

The TEs: 

The tight end room for the Denver Broncos leaves much to be desired, with Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins particularly finding themselves as Red Zone threats more than anything else. The reality for the Broncos is that this tight end room needs a lot of improvement in the off-season as the safety blanket for Bo Nix is more running the football than trusting his TEs. This is also where the Bills set themselves apart with a dynamic duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, who both are significant safety blanket options for Josh Allen, even with injuries certainly hurting the Bills tight end room this season. 

Best Bet: Josh Allen 1+ rushing touchdowns and Bo Nix over 30.5 rushing yards

(Written By Brandon Furtado) 

The risk is that the Broncos run defense is ranked third overall, while their pass defense is 19th. Allen could be contained and spied on, limiting his chances to run. However, he had 10 rushing touchdowns this season and has had four such scores in his last three playoff games. He is always a threat to take off and this game should be no different. On the opposing side, Nix has had seven games with 30+ rushing yards during the regular season. He is a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game and that could lead to some happy feet. He has the ability to take off and run and may do so if he senses an inkling of pressure in this game. Given how cold and windy the conditions are in Buffalo this time of year, that should only boost his chances to run.