The Matchup: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida

Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025 at 8:00p

Q’s Quick Pick: Washington Commanders Moneyline (+136)

The Quarterbacks: (WSH) Jayden Daniels finished seventh in terms of passing + rushing yards (4,459). He’s in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and rightfully so. Washington looks to have its Commander In Chiefs for the decade. His inaugural season in the league and at the helm of the offense saw him play better on the road than at home. His completion percentage (74.6) mirrors that of what he did in college a season ago. Daniels touchdown interception ratio away from Landover, Maryland (10:2) is also better than it is at home (15:7). Looking at his rushing stats, it’s quite the opposite. Despite having almost the same amount of attempts, his yards per carry on the road (4.8 ypc) pales in comparison to at home (7.2 ypc). As bad as the Bucs are at defending the pass, they’re just as good at defending the run. It’ll be interesting to see how the Commanders offense adjusts, but it may be wise to lean into Daniels efficiency through the air while picking your spots carefully to deploy the star QB on the ground. I like him to play well enough to upset the home favorites in his first playoff appearance.. (TB) Baker Mayfield (third) is one of six signal callers to finish with more total yards (4,878). He should have been mentioned a bit more in MVP conversations, and I suspect that would have been the case had the Buccaneers win a few more games. Mayfield was ab animal all year, but especially so at home, where he threw for damm near 2,500 yards and 24 touchdowns. The Commanders will let him get it too, seeing as they perform much worse defensively playing anywhere but their home field. Marshawn Lattimore could be the ultimate swing player in this matchup, but more on that later. I expect Baker get this week one way or another.

The Running Backs: (WSH) I’m not sure the running game, outside of what Daniels may provide. Brian Robinson has been good, not great, not even really good. Just good. That’s not going to get it done against Vita Vea and this Tampa front. They’ve been stuffing runners all year, and should continue to do so in this one. Austin Ekeler is going to be hampered by the Bucs run defense as well, but his pass catching role should provide some relief while allowing him some opportunity to produce outside the tackle box.. (TB) Bucky Irving has been SENSATIONAL this season. His first big game came in week six at New Orleans while playing the most snaps of the season (64% snap share). It was Irvings first week inside the fantasy top 12, and he never looked back. Despite largely playing under 50% of the snaps in any given game, the rookie phenom became the go to player out of the backfield. After the bye, he had 15 carries in all but two games plus up to six targets. The Buccaneers continued to try and work in Rachaad White as well, who was producing some solid-to-good games. It wasn’t enough to stave off the rookie, with White seeing his role evaporate late in the year. So alas, it’s Irving who should continue to carry the rock against a defense that’s allowed the third most rushing yards (2,337). Irving is a top ten rusher himself (1,122 yards), so expect yet another big day for the young Buc. White’s role will likely be to spell number 7, but hard to predict outside of that.

The Wide Receivers: (WSH) Terry McLaurin made the pro bowl off the back of his 13 receiving touchdowns, which ranked second to only Ja’Marr Chase (17). I’d bank on him getting another one against the Buccaneers defense that’s allowed the second most passing touchdowns (41) in football.  The Commanders will need someone else to step up from this receiver room, whether it’s Olamide Zaccheaus or Dyami Brown is as good a question as any, but I’d lean with Zaccheaus to be the secondary option here, though that’s likely behind tight end Zach Ertz.. (TB) Mike Evans vs Marshawn Lattimore. Let the battle commence. In twelve regular season games the two played against one another, Lattimore has locked Evans down, holding him to an average of 2.6 catches for 43.6 yards. There’s no doubt Washington is going to utilize him just like the Saints did in these matchups: shadow coverage. Lattimore is going to follow Evans everywhere. The Bucs will have to get creative in their deployment, moving him around the formation. Getting him in motion at the time of the snap. That’d not normally a big part of Evans game, so others will have to step up. Queue up rookie Jalen McMillian, who’s been in fire, scoring a touchdown in each of the last five regular season games. The Commanders, though, have allowed the fourth fewest passing yards against them. This pass offense hasn’t been slowed down yet, and I expect someone outside of Evans to produce.

The Tight Ends: (WSH) Zach Ertz has been as advertised: reliable veteran presence. He’s veen anywhere from irrelevant to vital for the passing game in terms of yards and receptions, but has largely been the second target throughout the year due to the lack of depth behind McLaurin in the receiving room. Ertz should continue to be involved in this one as someone who has plenty of experience in playoff and high leverage games.. (TB) Cade Otton is likely to play following a knee injury, and he may be needed to help ease the load off Evans. He’s faded since his monstrous midseason stretch, but he’s shown he has what it takes to take in a larger workload.