Week 11 MNF Preview Texans @ Cowboys

  • Texans (-7) @ Cowboys (+7)

    O/U 41.5

     

    Important notes for Texans:

    The battle of the two Texas football teams will unfortunately see a QB battle between C.J. Stroud and Cooper Rush, with Dak Prescott done for the year. The Texans have lost 3-of-4 games, though they were all by a one-score margin. One of the biggest headlines out of this game is the return of Nico Collins to the lineup. The superstar WR was red-hot as the team’s alpha target for the first part of the season, and should walk right back into one of the best fantasy WR profiles in the NFL this season. Despite the recent woes, Houston is much more competent than the performances Dallas has put out lately, and they should handily win this game.

    Important notes for Cowboys:

    Among the most disappointing ball clubs this season, the Cowboys limp into this game with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback. Dallas turned the ball over five times and had just 146 total yards of offense against the Eagles in Week 10. This is a pitiful situation for most fantasy-relevant players involved, though the needle is trending as up as it can for RB Rico Dowdle, who is slated for an increased workload. It would take a miraculous 180 for this team to put up a fight against a Texans team that is getting healthier and healthier.

    The QBs: C.J. Stroud has been a bit underwhelming this season, given the fireworks we saw from the young Texans offense in his rookie season last year. He’s finished outside the top-12 QBs since Week 4, and only has two QB1 finishes altogether in 2024. While his pass-catchers have taken a beating this season, a lot of the disappointment could be attributed to the massive role that Joe Mixon possesses as the team’s primary ball-carrier. In his last four games, he’s thrown a total of two touchdowns and two interceptions. Hopefully, the return of Nico Collins to the lineup sees Stroud return a bit to form.The Cowboys are surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs this season, but there’s a chance that the team keeps the ball on the ground a lot against their heavily-limited opponents, leaving little production for Stroud to claim. Under center for Dallas, QB Cooper Rush gets his second-straight start after Dak Prescott was shut down for the year with a hamstring injury that required surgery. Rush has just 45 passing yards on 42 attempts against the Eagles in Week 10 before getting benched for Trey Lance after the game was sealed. Rush is unplayable in fantasy football at this time, especially with a Houston matchup on deck. After picking off the scorching hot Jared Goff a whopping five times on SNF last week, Houston has forced 12 QB turnovers in their last five games. They’re beatable, still, but Rush is likely far from talented enough to do work against Houston’s defense.

    The RBs: Joe Mixon is one of three RBs averaging at least 19.5 half-point PPR points a game this season, and should add to that total in this matchup against Dallas. Houston is on the road, favored by a touchdown in this game against a Cowboys defense that surrenders over 150 scrimmage yards and a touchdown a game to opposing running backs, good for the fifth-best matchup for fantasy RBs. Last week against Detroit’s infamous run defense, Mixon failed to reach 100 rushing yards for the first time this season, but still found the end zone, as he has in every game this year. He should smash again vs. a battered Dallas team. Speaking of Dallas, their RB Rico Dowdle got some positive reinforcement from coach Mike McCarthy throughout the week, as the coach looks to get his young RB more involved with the season all but over for the Cowboys. Unfortunately, Houston is a bottom-five matchup for fantasy RBs this season, and Dowdle may have a hard time getting things going, but at least he should have more chances to do so. They also allow the third-fewest receptions to opposing backs, so the reality of him gobbling check down targets as the Cowboys trail most of the day may be less likely than I would have hoped. Any RB has a pathway to success with volume, and hopefully Dowdle can come through for those counting on him on MNF tonight.

    The WRs: When it comes to Houston, all eyes are on the return of Nico Collins to the starting lineup after a stint on injured reserve with a hamstring injury that held him out for a handful of games. Tank Dell should slot back in as the complementary wideout to Collins, but despite this being the typical lineup in Dell’s rookie season, they haven’t had much time on the field this season together, but without Stefon Diggs, who tore his ACL shortly after Collins got hurt. Dallas allows the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts on the season, and have given up a touchdown to four different WRs in their last two games. On the other side of the ball, we’re awaiting final confirmation on CeeDee Lamb’s status, as the standout WR popped up on the injury report with a back injury, though he is trending towards playing in this matchup. While Lamb was still able to see a fair share of volume in Cooper Rush’s first start at QB last week, he did little with the errant opportunities. Lamb is the only playable Cowboys WR in fantasy football with Rush under center, and hopefully his talent will be enough to overcome the poor offensive efficiencies. The Texans have been leaky on defense this season, and have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.

    The TEs: TE Dalton Schultz will likely see his target share drop with the return of Collins to the lineup for Houston, and has had a disappointing 2024 campaign as is, despite coming off of his season-best in Week 10. Schultz had three catches for 66 yards, marking the first time he exceeded 7.2 half-PPR fantasy points in a game this year. A large part is simply because he hasn’t found the end zone in 2024, and has just two red zone targets on the entire season. The absence of a red zone role means he is a landmine of a tight end and should be a comfortable waiver-wire mainstay at this point. Those looking for a silver-lining beyond the revenge game can look to the fact that the Cowboys have given up five TE touchdowns in as many weeks, though Schultz remains unlikely to have an opportunity to add his name to the list. As for Dallas’s starting tight end, Jake Ferguson suffers from the same dilemma as CeeDee Lamb. On top of that, Houston allows the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. It’s hard to count on either team’s tight end seeing much production in this contest.

    Best Bet: Joe Mixon 70+ Yards and a Touchdown (+110)

    While I wanted to gravitate towards Nico Collins in his return to the lineup, Mixon has been as unstoppable as it gets and pulls one of the best possible combinations of matchup and potential game script. Mixon hit this in every completed game except last week’s matchup with the Detroit Lions, and should have no problem getting back into the winning column against the Cowboys. A blowout is the only threat to this line, but Mixon can clear this line in basically two drives of heavy involvement. Mixon’s scored in every game he’s finished this season, adding up to eight total in six performances.

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