Bengals (+6) @ Ravens (-6)

O/U 52.5

Important notes for Bengals:

This is the ideal game for Joe Burrow and the Bengals as they excel as underdogs and usually drop the ball as favorites.  This is a perfect divisional clash with two of the best offenses in the league.  The Bengals will likely be without WR Tee Higgins and that means it’s all on Ja’Marr Chase to showcase why he is the WR1 in the NFL.  Styles make fights and this is shaping up to be a classic as the the Ravens are elite vs. the run while Baltimore is allowing the most passing yards per game this season, with the unit giving up an average of 280.9 per game.  The Bengals lost Zach Moss for the season and haven’t been a productive rushing team all season.  Expect Burrow to air it out and everyone is a threat to go over their line in this game.  Chase is the true alpha and should go crazy, but also expect TE Mike Gesicki to get involved as well as Andrei Iosivas, who has been quiet lately.  The last time these two teams played, it was a 41-38 Ravens win, I expect this game to play along at a similar pace.

Important notes for the Ravens:

The Ravens vaunted offense got even better when they added WR Diontae Johnson and now there are no holes on that side of the ball.  Rashod Bateman has been great as a deep threat and now they can hurt you a thousand different ways.  Lamar Jackson was battling a knee injury, but that shouldn’t really factor in this game and he’s also run wild over the Bengals and should easily get over 50 yards rushing in this one.  This game has explosion potential and you just know someone is going to have a historic line.  It could be Jackson, it could be Derrick Henry or it could be newcomer Diontae Johnson, following in the DeAndre Hopkins footsteps.  That’s not what I’m betting on, but it’s possible.  I have this game going Jackson, Henry, Flowers, anyone for fantasy purposes.

The QBs: This is a battle of the titans as Burrow has sneakily been amazing lately and is fresh off throwing for five TDs vs. LV last week.  The Ravens are much worse than LV defending the pass and unless something tragic happens, there is no chance Burrow doesn’t light up the scoreboard.  He’s a QB1 this week and should go for close to 300 yards and three TDs.  The only fear is that everyone is smashing the over on every prop on the board and all it takes is an injury to ruin everything.  Same goes for Jackson, who is a little banged up on a short week, but he didn’t have to work too hard vs. DEN last week and always gets up for the Bengals.  Jackson has more receiving talent than he ever has by a mile and could just hang out in the pocket and slice and dice, but in a national televised game vs. a rival, expect the full Jackson experience and he should sail over his rushing prop.  Jackson is the QB1 this week, but Burrow isn’t too far behind him.

The RBs : The TNF RB curse isn’t dead, but it’s taking a nap and Derrick Henry doesn’t lie down for anybody.  The fear is he just goes ham vs. the Bengals, who are middle of the pack vs. RBs, but Keaton Mitchell is finally healthy and could eat into some snaps.  The Ravens don’t need Henry to rumble for 150 yards in this game and on a short week, you have to assume they manage his carries somewhat.  He is still going to score and break a big one in the fourth quarter, but unless the Ravens are up comfortably all game, I expect an average Henry game, not a massive one.  Chase Brown has inherited the Earth, but he won’t be able to go full Atlas in this game.  The Ravens are the best in the league vs. the run, so expect him to get most of his work through the air.  He had five grabs last week and I expect plenty of checkdown this game as Burrow can’t throw to Ja’Marr every down.  I like Chase Brown the rest of the season, but would look elsewhere for RB production this week.  I wouldn’t expect Khalil Herbert to get much work either as he is new in town and doesn’t know the protection schemes.

The WRs : That is why no one will remember your name.  You can’t say that about Ja’Marr Chase as this is finally his time to shine.  It’s the best matchup of the season and the only worry is the Ravens blanket him all game.  Burrow is too good generally to do that as he will just pick you apart as he did the Raiders last week.  Chase should be tied with Justin Jefferson for the WR1 this week and we could be looking at the biggest game of his career.  The Ravens are that bad vs. the pass and this game has negative games script written all over it.  Again, likely no Tee Higgins.  I already have too many Chase bets in and it’s not even noon EST.  Iosivas isn’t a bad low-end flex play due to expected pass volume, but he’s more of a lottery ticket.  Flowers has proven that he has WR1 chops and has been great lately, the arrival of Diontae Johnson will eat into his target share, but Rashod Bateman is probably the one who will take the biggest hit.  Flowers is a must-start and Johnson is close to a WR3, but Bateman is back to a stash.

The TEs :  Isaiah Likely is out so that means Mark Andrews gets all the TE work and while he’s been TD dependent lately, he could actually be involved this week. He’s a solid TE start, but I’d probably go with Mike Gesicki over him as he has 173 yards over the last two games, whereas Andrews only has 62.  Again, this game is shaping up to be a bloodbath and you want to start anyone you can.  There could be 10+ TDs, which sounds crazy.

Best Bet : Ja’Marr Chase 100+ yards and a TD +220

I did this earlier in the season with CeeDee Lamb and he got 98 yards and a score.  The bet lost, but the process was a win, whatever that’s worth.  I like giving out bets that have plus odds and this is another one too good to pass up.  Chase averages 100 yards vs. BAL and if he catches a big one and scores, this bet could nearly hit with one play.  The Bengals should be down most of the game or if they are up, it’s likely because of Chase.  Honestly, the only way this bet doesn’t hit is if Chase or Burrow get hurt.  He’s had four bad games in a row since his last 193 yard receiving game vs….the Ravens.  It’s all happening.

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