Dolphins(+2.5) @ Rams (-2.5)

O/U 49

Important notes for Dolphins:

Despite being on a three-game skid and owning a 2-6 record, the team is much better with QB Tua Tagovailoa under center. Per PFF, over the last two weeks, the Dolphins lead the league in EPA per play and have the highest offensive success rate in the NFL, at 46.2%. The big question mark for the Dolphins heading into this game is the status of star WR Tyreek Hill, who is a game-time decision with a wrist injury that held him out of practice all week. If Hill cannot go in this one, expect to see Jaylen Waddle get a chance to emerge with a big role as the de facto WR1, while TE Jonnu Smith, WR ODell Beckham Jr. and RB De’Von Achane all have a shot at more targets in his absence. Obviously, if Hill goes in any capacity, he remains in starting fantasy lineups and drastically improves the Dolphins’ chances of winning or covering the spread.

Important notes for Rams:

The Rams are 4-4 and have won three games in a row as they start to get healthier on the offensive side of the ball. Wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both a week further removed from their respective injuries, and both got through the week without a single mention on the injury reports. The Rams have been improving defensively as well, holding their last three opponents to 20 points or less, after allowing at least 24 in every game prior. The Rams are rolling and should, in theory, only get better as they continue to heal up. Kyren Williams had his touchdown streak snapped in Week 9 after scoring in the first seven outings this season. Williams should look to get back into the end zone against Miami, are notably worse at defending the run than the pass.

The QBs: Tua Tagovailoa has played pretty good football when he’s been healthy this season, and last week was his first multi-touchdown performance on the year. Despite coming up just short of a victory in two-straight weeks, Tagovailoa should be able to ride the momentum of his personal performance and continue to lead his team to scoring drives. The Rams allow the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and have also allowed multiple passing touchdown in five of their last seven games. However, the Dolphins’ o-line has been unsteady, and the Rams pressure the quarterback with the best of the best this season. There’s a chance a Tyreek Hill absence and a good pass rush completely stymies Tua’s ability to get the ball down the field. As for Los Angeles’s quarterback, Matthew Stafford has six touchdowns in two weeks with his top-two targets back in action, after recording just three passing touchdowns in his first six games of the season. While the Dolphins’ secondary have helped them become a formidable fantasy QB matchup this season, Stafford will always have the potential to unleash if both of his guys are able to go full-tilt in Week 10. On the other hand, Miami has allowed five passing touchdowns in their last two games, after allowing just three throughout their first six games. Stafford has fantasy QB1 potential in this contest.

The RBs: In Miami, second-year RB De’Von Achane has emerged as one of the best dual-threat fantasy RBs this season, as long as Tua is under center. In four games sharing the field with Tagovailoa, Achane has averaged seven catches on eight targets per game, with at least 50 yards in all of them, and a receiving touchdown in three-straight. Achane has finished as a top-3 RB in half-PPR formats in those three contests, and should have another shot at that ceiling against a Rams defense that is a middling matchup for fantasy RBs. Veteran Raheem Mostert also remains mixed into the RB rotation, with 12 touches for 86 yards, though on just 14 snaps. What’s interesting on that note, is that last week was the first time that Mostert did not see the majority of red zone RB snaps for the team, with Achane dominating that role in Week 9, logging seven red zone snaps to Mostert’s one. The vet remains productive, but if he’s ceding the red zone role entirely to Achane, the second-year back will be an overall RB1 candidate on a weekly basis. It’s a lot simpler on the other side of the field, with Los Angeles’s backfield being dominated by Kyren Williams, who took the fantasy football world by storm in 2023. Williams is coming off of a 99% snap share in Week 9, dominating the workload as rookie Blake Corum awaits his opportunity. The Dolphins are tied for the third-most RB rushing touchdowns allowed on the season, and Williams should be the next to add to that total as a top-flight RB play this week.

The WRs: As I said before, if Tyreek Hill is up at any percentage, his unique explosiveness makes him a must-start no matter how threatening the floor may be. Jaylen Waddle was a vanishing act in Week 9 before appearing to hurt his ankle, heal up, and come back in to catch a go-ahead touchdown late in the near-comeback effort against the Bills. The Rams are a very beatable defense, as their heavy zone coverage is bottom-five in yards per reception allowed. Hill is an elite WR1 regardless of the matchup, while Waddle will be a much better look if Hill is ruled out. Waddle still has the potential to explode at any given moment, even though he hasn’t flashed that ability much this season. Keep an eye on either Odell Beckham Jr. or rookie Malik Washington to get a big opportunity should Hill wind up inactive. As for the Rams, Cooper Kupp appears locked in as the 1A of the offense as it stands, while Puka Nacua disappointed before drawing an ejection last week, but still remains a 1B in the offense with concurrent fantasy WR1 potential. Demarcus Robinson has two touchdowns in each of the last two weeks, but don’t expect that to become much more of a trend as the top-two get healthier and healthier. It should be considered that Robinson will still have access to these opportunities as he long as he’s out there in three WR sets, and is a better weekly dart throw than most with the volume this passing offense often distributes.

The TEs: Jonnu Smith has turned out to be a constant target in the passing offense for Miami in his debut season with the Dolphins. Smith is averaging roughly five catches on seven targets for 56 yards per game over his last four performances. He’s a decent weekly TE dart throw in his current role on the offense with Tua back in the lineup, and could have upside hinging on Tyreek Hill’s status for this game. The Rams are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. When it comes to Colby Parkinson lining up at TE for the Rams, he’s seen his role diminish in the wake of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua’s returns to the lineup. He’s drawn four targets in the last three games, and got blanked as he saw a season-low TE snap share at 42%, as the team favored Davis Allen.

Best Bet: De’Von Achane 60+ Yards and 1 Touchdown (+282)

Achane has five touchdowns in four games with Tua under center, and recently seized the red zone RB role of the offense in commanding fashion last week. He is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL with the ball in his hands, and is a great bet to find the end zone more often than not. The Rams allowed six rushing touchdowns through the first five weeks of the season before holding their last three opponents without one, but I like the odds of the unstoppable force in this one. Achane’s rushed for at least 63 yards in three-straight weeks, and is averaging 7.0 yards per carry in that span. The Rams have allowed an opposing rusher to eclipse 70 yards in all but one game this season.

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