• Light the money beam! It’s Friday, I’m Gonçalo Teiga and I’ll be breaking down today’s 10-game slate, including the Bucks vs. Mavs featured showdown! We’re going to enter the weekend with a Giannis vs. Luka battle and a possible debut, as Kemba Walker is not on the injury report. But that’s the last game of the day! We also have the “battle of the length”, as the Barnes-OG-Siakam combo faces the Paolo-Bol Bol-Mo Bamba frontcourt (there’s one of the best price-tags of the Magic season in that game!). The depleted Hawks are facing the Nets, and without Murray, Collins and probably Hunter, there’s a lot of great value plays on the Atlanta side. And we still haven’t talked about James Harden’s lowest price tag of the season (vs. the Lakers), the playoff rematch between the Suns and the Pelicans and the Rudy Gobert (or Jarred Vanderbilt) revenge game! There’s a lot to talk about today so let’s get started!

    Don’t forget to tune in to our Premium DFS Discord Channel, General DP! I’ll be there before the start of the games with some news and late plays!

    Injury Report

    Light the beam on Sports Ethos’s LIVE Injury Report and get all your injury news! Bookmark it and never lose out on new information!

    Tonight’s Props

    Thrive Plays of the Day

    Paolo Banchero U6.5REBS (90 PTS) – In his last 8 games, Banchero has gotten more than 6.5 rebounds just once, with 12 against the Bucks. He played Toronto on December 3rd and had just 3. Toronto is top-10 in opponent rebounds per 100 possessions, and with a shared frontcourt between Bamba, Bol and the Wagner brothers, there aren’t many rebounds to catch out of the 42 Toronto allows per game.

    Bojan Bogdanovic O22.5PTS+REBS (95 PTS) – Bogdanovic is playing Memphis, who allows the 2nd most points per game to opposing PFs. In his last 10 games, he has a 70% hit rate on this over and he’s averaging around 20 ppg this season. He’s a heat check guy that except his last game (1-of-8 from the field before getting ejected), has been on fire, shooting 51% from the field on the season and 55% (!!!) in the last two weeks. He can score more than 22 in any given game, and if he doesn’t score today, he just needs to get to around 18/19 for his 3.6 rebound per game mark gets him to the over.

    Clint Capela U2.5BLKS+STLS (105 PTS) – Last game, Capela got fewer minutes than the younger, more talented (does this count as a hot take?) Onyeka Okwongu. I don’t think that Nate McMillan is going to play Okongwu more minutes than Capela again, but the veteran center is averaging a combined 2 blocks+steals this season and given that his strong suit is blocks and the Nets allow just 4.1 per game (4th best), there are a lot of arrows pointing towards the under. To top this of, in his last 9 games, Capela has stayed with the under on 6 of them.

    Writer’s record

    19-23

    Tonight’s Games Picks (EST)

    Writer’s record

    12-23

    DFS Pillar Plays

    Franz Wagner

    Position: SF

    Salary: $5,900

    Last time Franz was below $6,000? Last season! I know he has been on a slow streak – 27 FPPG in his last 10 games – but at this price-tag I feel like its worth a roll of the dice. He’s also playing a Raptors team that allows the most assists per game to opposing SGs, and his FPPG have dipped mainly because he halved his assists numbers and lowered is FG% by 4% (when comparing the last 10 days with the whole season). If he can take advantage of this Toronto liability, he could have a big assist night and get more than 35/40 FPTS today, as he did during that beginning of November stretch.

    Khris Middleton (Featured Showdown Special!)

    Position: SF

    Salary: $6,500

    The lowest price tag of the season! Again! Middleton has only played 3 games this season, but his price-tag never dipped below $7,000. Last game, he had 33 FPTS in 29 minutes and just 11 shots, and his price-tag lowered by $500. The Bucks are ramping him up and he should be at his trademark stat-line of 20-5-5 in no time. The value with him is going to be in those 3 or 4 games when he starts producing and DK adjusts his price tag, and it could start today.

    In today’s featured showdown (MIL vs. DAL), you could take the risk and captain him at $11,700. That leaves you with room to roster one of Giannis/Luka (leaning towards Giannis because the Mavs allow the 5th most points to opposing PFs) and have $ to spare to round out your roster. But in all honesty, I don’t like to take this “middle of the pack” risk. I much prefer to captain Giannis and round out the roster with Dinwiddie, DFS (put DFS in your DFS lineup! *) and Josh Green or to take a huge risk and captain Josh Green at $3,900 (if the gets another 30FPTS… lately he has shown the potential that made the Mavs draft him at 18th) and roster both Giannis and Luka! Or even to captain THJ, has he has been red hot in the last couple of games.

    Recapping, this is my lineup suggestion: Captain THJ and roster Josh Green, Luka and Giannis (you still could squeeze Middleton and Kleber/Connaughton in there). You could captain everyone I said earlier, but I think this lineup manages the risk better and gives you the best opportunity to win (and a few $ to spare to round out your lineup).

    *Sorry for the bad pun

    James Harden

    Position: PG/SG

    Salary: $8,900

    Another one (DJ Khaled’s voice)! We’re price tag hunting! This is Harden’s lowest price-tag of the season – tied with opening night. He had 39 FPTS in his return, but that has shooting 4 for 19. He shouldn’t have that bad of a shooting game again (I hope), and it seems like a great opportunity to roster him and extract value. Also, the Lakers allow the 5th most points and 2nd most assists to opposing PGs.

    Bonus Tip

    This low price-tag hunt allows you to round out your roster with some players that have been hot and have a great matchup today. So, this is my hot matchup duo:

    Kelly Olynyk ($5,900) – if Markkanen doesn’t play, this is a must-play. The Wolves allow the 2nd most points and 3rd most threes to opposing PFs. He could really serve this Minnesota team lunch.

    Tim Hardaway Jr ($5,100) – 38.4 FPPG in the last 10 days. He has been red hot.

    DFS Value Plays (<$5,000 Salary)

    AJ Griffin / Bogdan Bogdanovic

    Position: SG/SF

    Salary: $4,800 / $4,100

    I feel like AJ Griffin is a regular here. No Murray today (and for two weeks, at least) and his price tag still lowered. There’s a lot of usage and shots to go over without Murray, and Griffin and Bogdanovic are the best bets to step up in the All-Star’s guard absence.

    Nickel Alexander-Walker

    Position: PG/SG

    Salary: $3,600

    Shai’s cousin! NAW is a play only if Conley remains out. He got the minutes last game when Sexton went down and got 31.75 FPTS. He could be the Jazz’s 3rd guard today, behind Clarkson and Beasley, and if that’s the case he provides huge value.

    Corey Kispert

    Position: SG/SF

    Salary: $4,500

    Deni Avdija is also a solid value play here ($4,800), but I lean towards Kispert because of today’s matchup. The Pacers allow the 4th most points to opposing SGs, and Kispert has got the start and consistent minutes and that spot since Beal has been out. Will Barton is questionable and could play today, but he hasn’t provided much fantasy-wise.

     

    Position Player Name Salary
    PG Harden $8,900
    SG AJ Griffin $4,800
    SF Middleton $6,500
    PF ??? ???
    C Olynyk* $5,900
    G NAW* $3,600
    F THJ $5,100
    UTIL ??? ???
    REMAINING BUDGET $15,200 remaining for 2 players

     

    *Only if Markkanen (Olynyk) and Conley (NAW) don’t play.

    That’s enough $ remaining for Ja/KD/Zion and a solid sleeper

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