What was expected?

The Rockies ended up 41 games out of first place in 2023 which was the fifth consecutive year that they finished in last place or next to last place in the NL West. It was hard to have much optimism about them heading into 2024.

Their defense looked like a strength as their roster included a 2023 Gold Glove winner, a 2022 Gold Glove winner and several recent Gold Glove finalists. Many observers concentrated their high hopes on just one player: Nolan Jones. Jones was coming off an outstanding rookie season in which he hit .297 with 20 HRs and 20 stolen bases despite an alarmingly high strikeout rate. On the pitching side, the team acquired starter Cal Quantrill to bolster their rotation and hoped for better health than what they had in 2023 when they lost two starters to surgery.

How did it go?

The Rockies were about as poor as most people expected. They improved their season win total by just two games and finished 61-101 which left them 37 games out of first place. They had the second worst run differential in MLB for back-to-back years.

The starting pitchers were healthier than they were in 2023 (only Kyle Freeland missed significant time in 2024) but continued poor performance offset the improved health. The bullpen was a mess. Three different pitchers were rotated through closer role and none of them did well.

Injuries and poor performance hampered the hitters. Kris Bryant had another injury-riddled and poor season. Nolan Jones was the main preseason hope but he was a failure. Jones only played 79 games after injuries forced him to the injured list for two long stints. Even when he played, Jones wasn’t good at all (.227 batting average and just three homers). The Rockies released catcher Elias Díaz, MVP of the 2023 All-Star Game, in August despite the fact that he was hitting .270. The season ended with a ceremony when 38-year-old outfielder Charlie Blackmon retired after a 14-year career, all of which was spent with the Rockies.

Fantasy Stud?

Brenton Doyle had the best season of any of the Rockies. After batting just .203 with 10 homers as a rookie in 2023, Doyle significantly improved his slash line to .260/.317/.446 (nearly identical to his xBA of.259 and xSLG of .448). Much of his success naturally occurred at Coors Field where he batted .313 (just .211 in away games), but hey, production is production. Also, Doyle more than doubled his homerun output by belting 25 homers and was very productive on the basepaths by stealing 30-of-35 attempts. It is not surprising to see that many of his advanced stats improved from the previous season. This includes barrel rate (10.5%, 72nd percentile) and hard-hit rate (41.4%, 58th percentile). He had a stunningly poor 35.0% strikeout rate in 2023 but improved it to 25.4% this year (still high, but much better).

Doyle generally wasn’t a draft target in 2024 but nearly finished as a Top 50 player so he’ll be a hot commodity in 2025 drafts.

Fantasy Dud?

Nolan Jones made his MLB debut in 2022 when he appeared in a couple dozen mid-summer games. However, his true rookie campaign was in 2023 when he had a 20/20 season and nearly batted .300. The only catch that year was his very poor strikeout rate of 29.7% which was in the bottom 15% in MLB. Despite that red flag, Jones was popular in 2024’s draft season where he was often selected in the fifth round. In hindsight, fantasy managers should have paid more attention to the poor strikeout rate instead of the attractive 20/20/.300 stats because Jones was a disaster in 2024.

Admittedly, health was an issue. He missed all of May and half of June due to a back strain and knee sprain. He returned for a month but then his back acted up again and caused him to miss another month. In the end, Jones hit just .227/.321/.320 with three homers and 28 RBI in 79 games. Those poor stats weren’t a fluke – his xBA was .214 and his xSLG was .328. Jones had an impressive barrel rate of almost 16% in 2023 but that number collapsed to 5.9% in 2024. He had an excellent walk rate of 12.1% but failed to improve his strikeout rate. In fact, it was slightly worse than last year and increased to 30.6%. A lone bright spot was that Jones was healthy for the final six weeks of the season and hit a more respectable .269 during that time. However, he had just two stolen bases and went homerless during those 28 games.

Jones had an ADP of roughly 50 in 2024. Needless to say, he will cost much less in 2025.

Fantasy Surprise?

After averaging under .200 in his first two seasons, Michael Toglia generated almost no interest ahead of the 2024 season. He managed just a .218 average this year but his xBA was significantly higher at .250.

The real surprise was his power surge. Toglia entered the season with only six career homers but smashed 25 this year while playing in just 116 games. Also, his SLG slugging percentage of .456 was below his xSLG, so there’s reason to think that he could have been better. Some of his under-the-hood numbers are encouraging, too. All of his advanced power stats were in the Top 10% in MLB, including barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and xSLG.  Another good sign is that he nearly doubled his walk rate to 11.8% (yes, another Top 10% rank!).

Toglia’s speed was another surprise. After stealing just two bases in his previous two short seasons, he swiped 10 bases in 2024 and was caught only once. Not bad for a guy who barely has a league-average sprint speed.

Other than probably never becoming a helpful source of batting average, Toglia’s main weakness was his strikeout rate. He struck out a hideous 32.1% of the time this year (bottom 5% in MLB). It may be hard for that number to drastically improve because he has been a high strikeout player throughout his professional career.

Toglia’s potential for power, speed and on-base performance will certainly make him draftable in 2025. He’s a risky pick due to the low batting average and bad strikeout rate, but he should be worth a mid- to late-round pick in conventional leagues (200-250 ADP).

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

With Brenton Doyle chosen as the team’s “Stud,” Nolan Jones as the “Dud” and Toglia as the “Surprise,” let’s take a look at a few other hitters who played for the Rockies in 2024.

Ezequiel Tovar – SS

Ezequiel Tovar had warts in 2024 but also took steps forward in his second full year on the Rockies.

He batted .269/.295/.469 in 157 games with 26 homers, 78 RBI and six steals. Other than the steals, each of those numbers improved over his 2023 stats. However, he was caught stealing five times and significantly overperformed his expected stats (.235 xBA and .406 xSLG). Tovar has somewhat above average sprint speed so it was surprising to see him be successful on barely half of his attempts.

He improved his barrel and hard-hit rates but both of those numbers were merely near league averages. His swing decisions were not too good in 2023 and they actually worsened a little in 2024. His chase%, whiff%, K% and BB% were all in the 10th percentile or worse. His BB% declined to just 3.3% while his K% increased to 28.8%. Both of those numbers have worsened for back-to-back years.

Tovar was drafted around No. 175 this year and was a big bargain because he returned top-100 value. He is just 23 years-old so better years are probably ahead. However, there are red flags so don’t automatically assume that Tovar will take another big step forward in 2025. A good bet seems to be that he returns similar value in 2025 and is worth a pick in the 100 range.

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