October 20, 2023, 11:42 am
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Packers (-120) @ Broncos (+1000): O/U 45.0
Packers -1 (-110), Broncos +1 (-110)
Bet: 4-7 -2.9u
Lean: 7-4 +2.11u
This game should be fun since the Broncos are a dumpster fire on defense and Packers really need to get back on track after going off the rails before their bye week. Packers QB Jordan Love who started so promising this season now has six INTs to only two TDs over his last three games. With Aaron Jones and Christian Watson finally healthy, it should be all-systems-go for the Pack on offense. The Broncos are struggling to stay afloat and there doesn’t seem to be anything keeping them from sinking to the bottom of the AFC. Russell Wilson is a shell of his former self and while the offense isn’t great, it’s the defense that has been truly atrocious. The Broncos defense ranks 32nd in rushing, 30th in passing and 32nd in scoring. If ever there was a week to deploy as many Packers as possible for fantasy, this is it.
Main Storylines to Watch
Is the Love Doctor In?: Jordan Love stormed out of the gates this season, looking like he was a man on a mission and that was without his top WR and his top RB getting hurt early. He didn’t throw a single INT in either of the first two games and now has at least one in the last three. He’s got at least two TDs in five of the six games and he seems poised to get back on track this week. With fantasy teams that lost Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson recently, Love is a great option at QB this week.
Is Russ Cooked?: On paper Wilson doesn’t appear to be declining that much as he’s accounted for 12 TDs so far this season, but the tape reveals that he’s no longer a threat in almost any capacity. Sure he can scramble when the defense ignores him and he can still throw the ball downfield plenty far, but there is something sad about watching him this season and it’s not going to get better anytime soon.
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Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love: Love has posted at least 20 fantasy points in every game except for the Thursday night dud vs. the Lions and his ability to gash teams with his legs has been a nice bonus. You have to assume he’s going to find Watson for a big play this week and as long as the RBs don’t vulture all the red zone opportunities, Love has a solid floor and a sky-high ceiling this week for fantasy.
Aaron Jones: The rap on Jones this preseason was that he was getting old (for running backs) and that the decline often comes with no warning at all. The first-cousin to natural decline is injuries and a hamstring injury early in the season can prove almost impossible to heal from on the fly. Jones hasn’t had much of a chance to shine and the last moment we saw him productive was when he beasted a receiving TD while simultaneously grabbing his hamstring. If he can’t get it done this week, look to trade him for whatever you can get.
AJ Dillon: The natural successor to Jones has stumbled quite a bit this season and doesn’t look like a future fantasy star. Dillon is averaging a meager 3.0 YPC and if wasn’t for a solid performance vs. the Lions last Thursday, he would be close to a drop with Jones back in the fold. Let’s see how the carries are split this week, but this could be the last week for a while where you can even think about starting Dillon.
Christian Watson: Watson has the goods and it’s taken until Week 7 for him to truly get a oppurtunity to show them. This is a 100% smash spot for Watson and he has a great chance to finish as a WR10 this week. He only has five grabs on the season, but he should be close 100% right now and this is a matchup where he should get plenty of high-value targets with a great chance to generate explosive plays. He’s a must-start this week and this could be the game he finally gets rolling.
Romeo Doubs: Doubs took a major backseat with the return of Watson and only managed one grab for four yards in the prior game vs. the Lions. He had received at least 10 targets in each of the previous two games and it will be telling to see where he falls into the target hierarchy with Watson sliding into the WR1 role. He should still have some value as a possession receiving and this is shaping up to be a positive matchup this week. He’s a low-end WR3 this week.
Luke Musgrave: Musgrave hasn’t exactly broken out like fellow TE rookie Sam LaPorta, but he’s been solid and seems to be growing the trust of his QB and coaching staff. He’s got at least seven targets in two of the last three games, but unless he proves himself to be invaluable, it’s likely his target share gets reduced with the return of Watson and Jones into the lineup fulltime. He’s a solid start this week if you are streaming TEs.
Russell Wilson: Other than last week’s meltdown performance vs. the Chiefs, Wilson has been a very good fantasy QB, it’s the real life version that has everyone worried. He has at least a TD in every game so far which is already better than last season, but the question of whether he is padding empty stats in blowouts looms large. He has struggled against good defenses and the Packers have a very solid pass defense that should keep him from providing QB1 fantasy numbers this week. The schedule doesn’t get any easier and it might be time to look elsewhere for your QB production.
Javonte Williams: The book on Williams so far this season is that he’s going to get about 10 carries for 50 yards and zero TDs. Luckily the Packers have the 28th worst rush defense and if there was ever a game to get going, it’s this one. Williams had a solid floor, but it’s the lack of ceiling which troubles fantasy GMs. The emergence of rookie Jaleel McLaughlin is real and he represents everything Williams was suppose to from a game-breaking perspective.
Jaleel McLaughlin: This rookie RB has the goods and it might be only a matter of time before he overtakes Williams. He’s a big play guy ready to explode on any down and offers a nice chance of pace from Williams and his plodding style. Make sure McLaughlin isn’t floating on your wire and while he might not be a must-start every week, he is a must-stash. Solid flex option this week.
Courtland Sutton: The four TDs are propping up Sutton’s value, but it’s the lack or targets with Jerry Jeudy in the lineup that should be alarming. He’s got 14 targets in the last three games combined and most of those were heavy pass script as well. This isn’t a great matchup for Sutton and you cant trust him in your starting lineup with such volatility. He’s become TD-or-bust.
Jerry Jeudy: Usually when a team has such a terrible defense, it allows the offense to prosper and especially the passing game. This hasn’t been the case for Jeudy this season. He hasn’t broken the 10-point fantasy barrier this season and it might be time to ignore the potential and face the reality that Jeudy isn’t that good in real life or fantasy. He’s a hard player to drop, but he should not be starting on your fantasy team.
Adam Trautman: With Greg Dulich suffering another hamstring setback, the TE position reverts back to Trautman, but Wilson has never really targeted his TEs and I wouldn’t expect that to change this week.
The Broncos have been a fun team to bet overs with whomever they are up against and with the RBs, that has been especially a profitable endeavor. Aaron Jones is only at 51.5 rush yards and while in my other preview, I said I am betting RB unders now, this line is too low against the worst rushing defense in the league. .Until the Broncos prove they can stop anything, I will continue to line up on the other side of their hideous defense. The Packers won’t put up 70 like the Dolphins did, but they should get their offense back on track and will be highly motivated from getting destroyed at home vs. the Lions 10 days ago. I still remain high on the Packers this season and with their two best playmakers at near full strength, I expect them to lean on them early often in this one.
Lean: Christian Watson receiving yards 52.5 yards over (-110) BET365
Bet: Aaron Jones rushing yards over 52.5 (-110) BET365