October 12, 2023, 10:49 pm
Carolina Panthers (0-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-1) Best Lines Available
Panthers (+660) @ Dolphins (-850): O/U 47.5 (-110)
Panthers +13.5 (-105), Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
Bet: 10-9 +1.12u
Lean: 3-5 -1.27u
A meeting between the unstoppable force of the Miami Dolphins and the very movable Carolina Panthers carries a huge point spread against the winless team from Charlotte, NC. The whole league would be shocked to see the Panthers earn their first win against the best offense in the league, but perhaps the Dolphins are so sure of themselves that they will slip up in big moments and allow Carolina some life.
Main Storylines to Watch
Will Adam Thielen remain a strong fantasy play? Carolina’s top receiver has been showing out since Week three and has a TD in three out of five games played. Outside of Week 1, he has averaged 11 targets per game and has eclipsed 100 yards twice. It seems he gives Bryce Young a safe, veteran receiving option that the young, no pun intended, QB is fond of.
How will the Dolphins backfield operate with Jeff Wilson Jr. being activated while De’Von Achane heads to the IR? Achane has been a monster for a few weeks now, but finds himself out at least four weeks. Jeff Wilson Jr. has yet to play this year, starting his season on IR, but the RB fits a similar profile to that of Mostert, trading a bit of speed for bulk. Will Wilson eat heavily into the role or is Mostert the surefire RB1 while Achane sits?
Want to get access to the rest of this game preview? You’ll need to have a FANTASYPASS membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!
Premium Access Required
Bryce Young: While Young has continued to look a little better each week, he is still far away from being a trustable fantasy asset. One of the biggest issues he has faced is the weakness of the offensive line, causing him to take many snaps under duress and not have much of a run game to support him. Young, however, has increased his yardage each week and even found the end zone thrice to go with two picks against Detroit last week. If the Dolphins do what they do best, Young could be facing a negative game script that forces the Panthers to pass all day long and give him a boost. Similar to last week when the Panthers were down big most of the game, we saw a career high in pass attempts and TDs for Young.
Miles Sanders: While Sanders is certainly the lead back in Carolina, the former Pro-Bowl RB has yet to have an exciting day on the ground. With only a single TD through five weeks and only topping 50 yards in Week 1, Sanders is not reliable. To be fair, he has been dealing with a shoulder injury that held him out of practice as late as Thursday. The most concerning part of the trend in his stat line is the drop in targets each week even as the team has become more pass-happy. If Sanders is unable to suit up, Chuba Hubbard is the next man up.
Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard actually out-touched Sanders in Week 5, but neither is a thrilling play at all. The passing game upside does not seem to exist and Hubbard does not have breakaway speed to rip off a long TD to save his fantasy day. Both are low floor flex plays.
Adam Thielen: The veteran WR is the only player I trust to start on this team as it stands. Seeing 13 targets last week, Thielen is locked and loaded for 10 catches each week if the Panthers continue with the current gameplan. It is clearly a development year for QB Bryce Young and linking up with the tried and true receiver will help him learn.
Jonathan Mingo & DJ Chark Jr.: These two have been in flux, battling over targets each week. Mingo came out on top with more catches and yards last week, but it was Chark who pulled in the TD. Neither can be counted on, but it is an interesting battle to watch as they are targeted similarly and one may begin to gain favor from Bryce Young over time.
Hayden Hurst & Ian Thomas: As stated above, there is really only room for one pass catcher in this offense, Adam Thielen, and the residual pieces will not be receiving the attention they might deserve. To have the TE room as split as it is on top of that leaves Hurst and Thomas all but devoid of fantasy value. Even when they both were in the game more, it was Tommy Tremble who came down with a one yard TD on his only target of the game. The odds are stacked against you in this game of roulette.
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua has been amazing commanding the best offense in the league, but his fantasy numbers have not been as high as you might expect given that. He is still throwing for over 300 yards per game on average, thanks largely to a 466 yard game in Week 1, but the interception numbers have been higher than ideal and the TDs lower than expected with how many points the team has scored. Now forget everything I just said and remember you drafted this guy below the top tier of QBs and he has 1614 yards and 11 TDs through five weeks. You are starting Tua whenever and wherever possible each and every week.
Raheem Mostert: With his rookie partner De’Von Achane on IR, Mostert looks to be the 100% leader of the backfield going forward… but now Jeff Wilson Jr. is back too. Either way, Mostert is a must start, especially since we have not seen how much of a role Wilson will receive immediately. Mostert has been elite with his speed and found the end zone far more than expected.
Jeff Wilson Jr.: It is unclear what Wilson’s role will be in this offense, but there are two likely scenarios. Firstly, he may come in and just change the pace a little bit as a complementary back to Mostert and not be given many important touches or work in the passing game. Second possibility, the Dolphins are up so much in this game that Wilson gets a ton of burn and runs for 100 yards and two TDs. Nothing in between. Realistically, I would shy away from starting Wilson in his first week back, but in doing so I would be vulnerable to some emotional damage if he ends up having a huge role with Achane out. He will likely see the height of his value during the four plus weeks the rookie is on IR.
Tyreek Hill: Not much is to be said about Hill, if you have him, you start him. Speed kills and as we have all seen he has game-breaking speed. Every other week for Hill has been a bit of a dud compared to his big weeks, but there is no reason to try and play the game of predicting when he will go for 200 yards and when he will go for 50. Just fire him up and let one of the best receivers in the league do his thing.
Jaylen Waddle: After dealing with some injury concerns earlier in the year, Waddle had his first 10 target game last week and found the end zone. The only problem was he only finished with five catches for 35 yards in the big win over the Giants. Waddle to me is still in a buy-low window that will likely slam shut when he goes for over 100 and a pair of TDs. I encourage managers to keep trusting Waddle, he is a key cog to the offense and is too skilled to remain disappointing for fantasy.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Miami Dolphins have been blowout artists all year and I usually shy away from some of the scarier spreads, but the -13.5 is calling my name and I want to roll with it. Additionally, I like for Bryce Young to top 209.5 passing yards, a category in which he is trending the right way. The additional bets listed reflect my anticipation of a similar game to that of Carolina @ Detroit last week. The Dolphins go up big early and the Panthers start to scrap back with some scores of their own, but never make it particularly close or interesting.
BET: Miami Dolphins -13.5 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u (Bet365)
BET: Bryce Young OVER 209.5 Passing Yards (-114) 1.14u to win 1u (FanDuel)
BET: Over 47.5 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u (FanDuel)
BET: Adam Thielen OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114) 1.14u to win 1u (FanDuel)
BET: Miami Dolphins -7.5 First Half Spread (-105) 1.05u to win 1u (FanDuel)
BET: Bryce Young OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (+182) 1u to win 1.82u (FanDuel)