November 16, 2023, 10:57 am
New York Giants (2-8) @ Washington Commanders (4-6)
Giants(+350) @ Commanders(-455): O/U 37.0
The Washington Commanders (5-3) return home to face their division rival New York Giants (2-7) for the second meeting of these two teams on the season. The first meeting was a Week 7 boring 14 to 7 win by the New York Giants. The Commanders lost to the Seahawks in Seattle last week on a last-second field goal. The Giants were embarrassed again by the Cowboys in Week 10.
Leans: 13-27 -6.97u
Bets: 16-24 -9.51u
Main Storylines to Watch
Do the Commanders fire their head coach if they lose? The Commanders have had a slightly below-average season, so why would they fire Ron Rivera? The new ownership is expected to clean house at the end of the season, but many wonder if the Commanders’ offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will get a shot at the head coach job. It makes sense to get a trial run for the rest of the season with Bieniemy leading this team as head coach. A loss to the struggling Giants again would be a very good excuse to start Bieniemy’s head coach trial sooner rather than later.
Can the Giants eclipse the 100-yard maker for passing yards? Two out of the last three games the Giants did not eclipse the 100-yard passing marker. The game they passed that marker was due to garbage time production in a 30 – 6 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. If your offense cannot eclipse 100 yards in 2023, you probably need a new quarterback. Tommy DeVito is getting thrown to wolves in what looks like a tanking strategy with Daniel Jones out for the rest of the year and Tyrod Taylor still out with a rib injury with no return timetable established yet.
Sam Howell: Howell is a top-ten fantasy QB. He has been putting up major volume numbers and that volume is not expected to change for the rest of the season. The Giants defense is very beatable, but Howell struggled against them in the Commanders’ first matchup against New York. With the Giants offense being as bad as it is, this may be one of the only remaining games Howell does not get over 40 passing attempts. I would still start Howell in the QB10 – QB15 range this week and start Howell for the rest of the season as a top-ten option.
Brian Robinson: Robinson had 119 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 through the air! He added 38 yards rushing as well, but this passing work is super appealing for fantasy owners. I do not think this receiving volume will stick, but he will get close to 15 touches every game and this offense has been scoring as of late. This Giants matchup could see Robinson getting volume on the ground if the Commanders get up early and just need to run the ball out against the Giants awful offense.
Antonio Gibson: Gibson has been a pretty solid Flex option in the past two weeks. If you are in a deep league, struggling with RB injuries, or RB bye weeks, Gibson can be started as a low-end RB3 in this matchup. The Commanders are over a touchdown favorite which leads me to believe they will have increased rushing volume and Gibson has been active in the receiving game as of late. I think you can count on Gibson getting around 10 touches in this game.
Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is WR17 on the year and has averaged around eight targets a game for this Washington offense. He will remain a low-end WR2 for the rest of the season. This offense has leaned on the passing game and McLaurin is the top guy in this pass-catching group. He has only scored twice on the year, so I believe he has some positive touchdown regression coming his way. McLaurin has a high floor and he could increase his upside if he finds the end zone more.
Jahan Dotson: Just as we were building back our trust for Dotson, he provided us with a zero-point dud week. I would keep Dotson on your roster but not start Dotson in this matchup against the Giants. I think the COmmanders will run more than normal which will limit the volume Dotson was seeing when he was thriving. The Commanders used their RBs a lot in the passing game last week, but that was more of an anomaly that should not be expected to be the new norm. Assuming those RB targets go down from 12 to around six to eight targets, Dotson should get more targets moving forward.
Logan Thomas: If you want to avoid a dud week for your tight end position, Thomas is your guy. He had five receptions on five targets for 40 yards last week. That will not win you a week, but he has consistently been getting volume through the air and is an important option for Howell. Start Thomas as a TE10 – TE15 option each week and at the end of the year, he will finish around the TE10 mark overall.
New York Giants
Tommy DeVito: He has proven he should not be a backup in the NFL. Avoid him and all pass-catching weapons on this team because of his limited capabilities.
Saquon Barkley: Saquon has been the only effective offensive player for the Giants in the past two weeks. Saquon is an auto-start due to projected volume, but he will most likely be inefficient with defenses concentrating solely on stopping Barkley until something changes at the QB position. Start Barkley as a mid-tier RB2.
Giants WR room: Wan’Dale Robinson is the receiver to own in this receiver room if you’re forced to roster a Giants WR, but Tommy DeVito will make it hard for anyone to be fantasy valuable. Avoid this group at all costs. Maybe add Jalin Hyatt as a bench flyer in a keeper league for the slight chance he breaks out at the end of the season.
Daniel Bellinger: Bellinger led the pass-catching group last week with 34 yards receiving. There are better options elsewhere on your waiver wire.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Vegas projected score of this game is 22.75 Commanders to 14.25 Giants. I have been riding the Giants’ last-to-score bet ever since DeVito took over the QB position. I think they score in garbage time at the end of the game. DeVito has struggled in the passing game therefore I like the 25+ rushing yards for him. While he may be a poor backup QB, he is still a competitor fighting for his NFL future and I expect him to do more scrambling against the Washington defense.
Lean: Last to Score – NY Giants (+154) 1u to win 1.54u (DraftKings)
BET: Tommy DeVito Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (+125) 1.25u to win 1.25u (DraftKings)