November 16, 2023, 10:55 am
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Bengals(+154) @ Ravens(-185): O/U 46.0
The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) stay home to face their division rival Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) in Thursday night primetime for the second meeting of these two teams on the season. The first meeting was a Week 2 close for the Ravens in Cincinnati. The Ravens are coming off an emotional loss to their other Ohio division foe the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens led the majority of the game until the Browns completed their comeback late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals were “upset” by the Texans in Week 10. I use quotes because the Texans have been a scrappy team all season long, but the Bengals should’ve won that game. Both of these AFC North teams need a victory on Thursday to keep the division title in their sights for this season.
Leans: 13-27 -6.97u
Bets: 16-24 -9.51u
Main Storylines to Watch
Can Lamar bounce back for fantasy purposes? Lamar has averaged around 13 fantasy points over his last two contests. The first game was a blowout victory over the Seahawks where he sat in the fourth quarter to avoid any injuries in garbage time. The second game was a close high-scoring loss to the Browns. The Ravens scored eight touchdowns in the past two games, but Lamar was only involved in one of those touchdowns. This is most likely just bad luck for someone who was considered an MVP candidate prior to the past two games.
Can the Bengals regain their momentum after last week’s loss? The Bengals were one of the hottest teams going into Week 10. They started 1-3 and rebounded with a four-game winning streak to get back to 5-3 before ultimately losing to the Texans at home. This season has been a roller coaster of emotion for Bengals fans with their poor start and questions surrounding Burrow’s health. The Bengals already lost to the Ravens at home, so if they have any plans of winning the divisional title this is a must-win game for them.
Lamar Jackson: Despite the average at best performances in the past two weeks, Lamar is still the QB4 in total points. He is an auto-start and should be in line for some positive regression in the touchdown category. If some of those rushing touchdowns go to Lamar in the air or on the ground, he will return to providing week-winning upside.
Gus Edwards: The main beneficiary of Lamar’s touchdown woes is Gus Edwards. Edwards has six rushing touchdowns in the past three games. His overall rushing volume has not been the best with Justice Hill still taking snaps and the Ravens working in Keaton Mitchell now as well. Edwards is a prime sell-high candidate and he is bound to stop scoring this much. I would start him as a RB20 – RB25 play in Week 11. He gets the goalline carries for a great offense, but his overall volume has been poor lately.
Keaton Mitchell: Is Keaton Mitchell the next Devon Achane? I do not believe so, but he is worthy of a bench stash. If you really need upside in your flex position, he is a worthy start. The volume for Mitchell has been very low, but he has been very explosive whenever he touches the ball. The Ravens came out saying he will conitune to get touches in this backfield, but his fantasy production is too volatile for me to want to start. He is not going to average over 15 yards a touch for the rest of the season, but he is a great stash on your bench if his volume goes up.
Zay Flowers: Flowers continues to be frustrating for fantasy owners. He gets the most targets of any Ravens wide receiver, but he has not made any big plays or scored much with his opportunities. He has provided fantasy owners with a solid floor all season long but has yet to provide a week-winning performance. I would start him as a low-end WR3.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham caught a touchdown in back-to-back weeks now. He is the clear second option at the wide receiver position, but Lamar seems to trust him more as the Ravens get close to the end zone. He is nothing more than a bench stash or bye-week Flex fill-in at this moment.
Mark Andrews: Andrews is still the top option for this passing offense despite his poor performance last week. In the grande scheme of the tight end landscape, two catches for 44 yards is not a dud week. If you have Andrews on your team, you are understandably annoyed by that output, but that is the reason he is such a top tier tight end play. He should continued to be started as a top-three option at tight end.
Joe Burrow: Despite the winning streak coming to an end, Burrow has looked like his healthy self as of late. He scored over 20 fantasy points last week and added 20 yards rushing last week. Burrow has returned to a top-five fantasy QB option for the rest of the season.
Joe Mixon: Mixon is a solid RB2 for the rest of the season. He should get around 15 touches a game give or take a few depending on the game script. The Ravens have been a stout run defense all season, but did give up over 175 yards rushing last week against the Browns. The Bengals do not have the Browns offensive line, but he should still be a solid start as a low-end RB2.
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase was banged up going into Week 10 but he still managed 124 yards and a touchdown last week. When Chase plays, he is an autostart. Assuming there are no setbacks prior to Thursday night, Chase is a top-ten option at WR.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd has been a very solid fantasy option when Tee Higgins is out. Going into this Thursday night matchup, Tee Higgins is doubtful to play. Boyd is a high-end WR3 this week with Higgins out. The Ravens have a solid defense, but Burrow is back to his elite self and should be able to produce. Chase will not get all the touches and Boyd is the next up in this offense with Higgins out.
Irv Smith Jr.: You can find a better option on your waiver wire.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Vegas projected score of this game is 24.75 Ravens to 21.25 Bengals. Despite the explosiveness of both offenses, 46 points seems high for the second matchup of these AFC North rivals. The other line that sticks out to me is the under 11.5 rush attempts for Gus Edwards. Keaton Mitchell has come on as of late and Justice Hill still has a role in this backfield. I like the under and expect there to be a three-way split in carries for this game.
Lean: Gus Edwards Rush Attempts Under 11.5 (+100) 1u to win 1u (DraftKings)
BET: Total Points Under 46.0 (-110) 1u to win.9u (DraftKings)