Denver Broncos (3-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-4)

Lines Available

Broncos(+280) @ Bills(-355): O/U 47.0
Broncos+7.5(-120), Bills-7.5(+100)

Denver Broncos (3-5) and the Buffalo Bills (5-4) face off in Buffalo for the Monday primetime matchup. The Bills are coming off a close loss to their conference foe Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos come into this game after their bye week. The Broncos’ most recent game in Week 8 was an upset victory over the Chiefs in Denver.

Writer’s Record
Leans: 10-26 -9.02u
Bets: 14-22 -9.26u

Main Storylines to Watch

Can the Bills still win the AFC East with all the injuries they are dealing with? The Buffalo Bills opened the season as favorites to win the AFC East. Currently, the Dolphins are ahead of the Bills by one game prior to this Monday night matchup. The Bills currently have eight players on injured reserve and two more that have already been ruled out for this primetime Monday night game. The defense has been hit the hardest. Two of their best defenders look to be out for the year in Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano as well as two other corners and one safety missing from this Week 10 game. The Bills are still touchdown favorites in this game, but their offense cannot afford to lean on their injured defense in this game. The Dolphins can be had in the division, but the Bills need their offense to perform and unsung members of their defense to step up.

Is the Broncos defense good now? The Broncos gave up 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3 which has basically ruined any chance of their defensive numbers looking good on the season. In the past three weeks, the Broncos defense has only given up an average of 15 points per game. Those three games include two matchups with the Chiefs. After Week 5, the Broncos seem to be acting like a completely different defense. There is top-end talent on this defense, and maybe they just needed some time with this new coaching staff. If the Broncos can stifle this Bills’ offense, they might need to be looked at as a top half of the league defense for the rest of the season.

Buffalo Bills

QB

Josh Allen: Josh Allen is the QB1 overall for fantasy. You are starting him no matter what. Vegas is expecting this to be a high-scoring game which should give him a strong opportunity to finish as a top-three QB this week.

RB

James Cook: The Bills shied away from the run game in last week’s contest and thus made Cook’s performance a forgettable one. Despite having only six rushes for 20 yards, he was still involved in the receiving game with four catches. Cook should be started as an RB2 for the rest of the season. This is a good matchup for Cook to get around 10 rushes and five targets in the air. On this explosive Bills’ offense, that volume should be enough to provide his RB2 fantasy value.

WR

Stefon Diggs: Diggs has scored over 10 fantasy points in every week of the season so far. He is a top-five WR for fantasy and should be started whenever he is playing. This is a tougher matchup going up against Denver’s stud young corner Pat Surtain.

Gabe Davis: Davis had zero points in Week 9 against the Bengals. This is what you get with Davis. His past five weeks have been 22, 3.1, 1.6, 23.7, and 0 points in full PPR leagues. He is a boom-or-bust WR with no real pattern to suggest when he will go off. If you need volatility on your team, he is a solid starting option. If you need a safe 5 – 10 points, you should look elsewhere.

TE

Dalton Kinaid:  Kincaid has busted out ever since Dawson Knox went on IR. With the added opportunities, Kincaid has lived up to the preseason hype. Kincaid should be an auto-start at the tight end position for the rest of the season. If Knox comes back, it is worth keeping an eye on Kincaid’s snap totals. He should still have plenty of opportunities to succeed, but you never know until it becomes a reality.

Denver Broncos

QB

Russel Wilson: The Bills have a banged-up defense that Wilson could take advantage of.  The Bills are a bottom-five matchup against opposing QBs on the season, but they are missing three corners and one safety in this game. The secondary should be beatable if the Broncos offensive line can hold up against the Bills’ defensive line. Russ should be started with a QB10 – QB15 expectation this week

RB

Javonte Williams: Williams is establishing himself as a workhorse running back for this offense. He had 18 and 30 touches in his previous two games. Even if he stays near the 18 touch mark, that should give him plenty of opportunities to provide RB2 value. Williams could be a sneaky buy candidate if his touch numbers stay high in this game and he stays out of the end zone limiting his fantasy output in this game. Start Williams as a mid-tier RB2.

WR

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been a frequent visitor of the end zone this season with six touchdowns in eight games thus far. He seems to have Russ’ trust in that area of the field. He is averaging less than 50 receiving yards a game making him a touchdown-dependent fantasy player. Sutton is a low-end WR3 for the rest of the season. 

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy finally scored a touchdown in his last game against the Chiefs. Jeudy has averaged slightly over eight points per game in PPR leagues. The idea of Jeudy has always been better than the reality for the former first-round pick. I would avoid starting Jeudy as nothing more than a bye-week fill-in at flex. He has not been proven to relevant enough to be a trusted fantasy option. 

TE

Adam Trautman: Avoid this tight end group. Trautman is the starter and he did not receive a target in their last game.

Betting Insight

PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.

The Vegas projected score of this game is 27.25 Bills to 19.75 Broncos. This is one of the higher over/under numbers of the week. Hopefully, that means we will have an entertaining Monday night game, but I like the under in this game. The Broncos have been a much-improved defense and I trust the Bills’ defensive line to make it rough for Russ despite the injured secondary.

Lean: DEN Broncos +7.5 (-110) 1u to win .9u (DraftKings)
BET: Total Points Under 47.0 (-110) 1u to win .9u (DraftKings)