November 12, 2023, 12:25 am
Tennessee Titans (3-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) Best Lines Available
Titans (+125), Bucs (-142): O/U 39
Titans +3 (-115), Bucs -2.5 (-115)
Bet: 16-20 -3.78u
Lean: 11-9-1 +1.79u
Both of these run defenses are very solid, so we should see a lot of action through the air. Will that translate to yards? It depends on how accurate Will Levis and Baker Mayfield will be. Neither of these teams has had much success this season, but neither has been terrible either. This should be a good, competitive game.
Main Storylines to Watch
Will He? Will Levis has taken over for Ryan Tannehill and he’ll be without Treylon Burks for this one. Levis has been decent though and it’s exciting to think that some of the Titans weapons we had, like Chigoziem Okonkwo and DeAndre Hopkins, might have a second life in the second half of the season. We’ll have to monitor who Levis likes to throw to over the next few weeks, but without Burks we could get some big games from some lesser known players.
No Running Allowed: Both of these defenses have been stingy against the run this season, so we’ll have to see if the quarterbacks can adjust and get yards over the air. That could lead to a bigger score than what Vegas has, but it could also lead to a lot of turnovers for the defenses. Throwing the ball a lot can be dangerous.
Will Levis: He had a really good week and then a not-so-good week, but here he should be taxed with throwing a whole bunch to get first downs. If you took a chance on Levis, you were likely hurting at the QB position, so you probably don’t have a lot of options. Roll him out there and hope for the best.
Derrick Henry: Old man Henry has re-surged here over the past several weeks on his way to another season where he’s a clear RB1. One day he may slow down, but it doesn’t appear that will be this week or this season.
DeAndre Hopkins: He seems to be the early favorite of Will Levis and for now you have to plug him in and play him whenever possible. He finished as the WR2 two weeks ago when he had the three touchdowns and he gets a game script where throwing the ball should be encouraged.
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Showing some signs of life and he’s worth a speculative add with the Titans down Treylon Burks if you’re in desperate need of a hail mary at the tight end spot. The returns have been very minimal so far, but perhaps this is the week he goes off.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield: He’s been just outside of the top 12 on the season for a while now, but if you’re relying on him then here you play him. You beat the Titans through the air, so that’s what they should try to do here.
Rachaad White: He’s probably worth a flex spot even if it’s a tough matchup. There’s simply no one behind him on the depth chart, so White should still get the bulk of the carries. Just temper your expectations this week.
Mike Evans & Chris Godwin: These guys are who Baker Mayfield should be thanking as they have been really good weapons on this Bucs team. Will they be on the Bucs going forward if they lose some games? Hard to say, but there are plenty of teams out there who’d love to have these two very talented receivers. Play them.
Cade Otton: Had a big week last week and it was enough to push him up to TE19. We can’t count on that kind of explosion again, but if you’re in a pinch he’s certainly on the radar in this matchup as an injury replacement play at tight end.
I’m learning hard into this “pass all over the place” narrative here, so feel free to fade me if you’re not buying that. The pass attempts for Will Levis seems almost too easy. Even in a poor week, he threw the ball 29 times. He’ll have to be pretty bad or something will have to go horribly wrong for this to not hit. The plus money on the Chig receptions without Treylon Burks was too tempting to pass up. I’m equally bullish on this line for DHop, who has been the red zone target of choice for Levis thus far.
BET: Will Levis O29.5 pass attempts (-130) 1.3u to win 1u (BetMGM)
BET: Chig Okonkwo O3.5 receptions (+158) 1u to win 1.58u (FD)
BET: DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD (+190) 1u to win 1.9u (FD)