November 11, 2023, 11:04 pm
Houston Texans (4-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) Best Lines Available
Texans (+240) @ Bengals (-285): O/U 47
Texans +6.5 (-110), Bengals -6 (-110)
Bet: 16-20 -3.78u
Lean: 11-9-1 +1.79u
This one should be fun even though there’s a clear better team in this matchup. The Texans are down at least eight bodies with a few more questionable and the Bengals may be down multiple receiving options. Those injuries may change the calculus, but ultimately we would expect the Bengals to be victorious here.
Main Storylines to Watch
Banged Up: The Texans have eight key guys missing in several key positions on their team. They also have several guys questionable here, and they’ll have to rely heavily on the remaining guys. A lof of their injuries are on the defensive side of the football, which isn’t good if Joe Burrow is truly back and healthy from that calf injury.
Wide Receiver Depth: Tee Higgins is out and Ja’Marr Chase is questionable, so the Bengals may have to rely on their third and fourth receivers to step up here. Chase is trending towards being a true game-time decision, so we’ll have to keep our eyes peeled to see if that will be the case. Even if he sits, the Bengals should have enough to take care of the Texans here.
CJ Stroud: He’s been a QB1 all season, but he’s had his rough patches. If you’ve been rolling with him thus far there’s no reason to fade him at this point. Plug him in and hope he can be a bit more active with his backup running back on the field.
Devin Singeltary: Dameon Pierce has been ruled out and Singletary struggled last week against a tough Buccaneers run defense. He should be better this week, but expectations should be kept in check. The Bengals run defense isn’t really special in any way, so hopefully Singletary can take advantage. What we’re hoping for here is something like 50-60 rushing yards with a touchdown.
Tank Dell & Robert Woods: Tank Dell is anticipated to have a big week with a negative game script for the Texans. If they have to play catch up, Dell should be very busy receiving the ball. Woods is questionable, but with Nico Collins out he could have a decent day. If he can’t go, expect John Metchie to get in on the fun. Stroud has been good enough to support a few wide receivers to standard league value in most weeks.
Dalton Schultz: Keep starting Schultz. CJ Stroud has proven he can be competent, and Schultz has been a primary weapon.
Joe Burrow: He’s been looking like the guy we all drafted for the past several weeks. Hopefully, you held onto him so you can reap the benefits of starting him in this Week 10 matchup.
Joe Mixon: Tough to trust but this is an ideal matchup with a big game spread in favor of the Bengals. The best thing is that there is literally no one behind him on the depth chart pushing for minutes. He should be a safe play as an RB2 this week.
Ja’Marr Chase (if he plays), Tyler Boyd, and Trenton Irwin: Irwin is really only on the radar if Chase can’t go, but even if Chase plays he’s probably worth a snag if you’re hurting for a wide receiver. He was targeted heavily earlier in the season when the Bengals were down bodies. The Tee Higgins targets should get divided among Boyd and Irwin as well.
Irv Smith Jr.: Not really on the radar in standard leagues at all.
Injuries mean opportunities, so this is where we benefit if we’ve been paying attention all season long. Even if Ja’Marr Chase is ruled out, I trust Joe Burrow to be able to take advantage against a banged-up defense that wasn’t all that great to begin with. If Chase is ruled in, we get some immediate and big CLV. Singletary should be able to double his rushing production from last week where he saw 13 carries. Irwin is a guy we saw have big games early in the season and the Bengals will at least be without Tee Higgins.
BET: Bengals -6 (-110) 1.1u to win 1u (PointsBet)
BET: Trenton Irwin O31.5 rush & rec yards (-115) 1.15u to win 1u (DK)
BET: Devin Singletary O47.5 rush yds (-120) 1.2u to win 1u (BetMGM)