November 9, 2023, 9:52 pm
Indianapolis (4-5) at New England (2-7)
ML Colts (-125) @ Patriots (+105): O/U 43
Colts -2 (-110), Patriots +2 (-110)
Es ist die zweite Woche mit Deutschlandspielen für die NFL! The Patriots will face the Colts this week for our second game in Germany at Frankfurt Stadium. This game doesn’t quite have the anticipated excitement that last week’s Chiefs-Dolphins game had in Germany but with the bye weeks hitting everyone again this week, there are some players in this game you could be looking at starting for your fantasy teams.
Main Storylines to Watch
Can you finally start a Patriots WR? Demario Douglas has seen his snaps and routes increase and has had double-digit PPR points in two out of his last three games. But he will take a lot of snaps out of the slot position. The Colts have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to slot WRs this year.
Is Jonathan Taylor back? Last week Taylor had 18 rush attempts and over a 20% target share against the Panthers. He has been on average the RB11 in PPR leagues over the last three weeks.
Gardner Minshew II: Minshew didn’t need to do much last week against the Panthers once they got out to a lead thanks to two pick-six touchdowns from his defense, as he only threw for 127 yards and a score. The Patriots allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs this year and only allow 192 passing yards per game. With the QBs we have on a bye this week, there is a chance you might have to start Minshew in 2QB and SuperFlex leagues, but this could be a week against this defense where he puts up less than 15 points.
Jonathan Taylor/Zack Moss: For the first time since Taylor returned, we saw the expected gap in RB touches between the two last week in the win over the Panthers. Taylor had 18 carries and five catches while Moss had just seven carries with no catches. Over their last three games, the Patriots are only allowing 94 yards rushing per game. Last week Brian Robinson rushed 18 times for 63 yards and a score against them. I think you can see a similar line for Taylor this week with three to five catches added to it, making him a start in any format this week. I don’t expect Moss to get back to the workload he was getting before last week, so he is best left on your bench this week.
Michael Pittman/Josh Downs: Even in a game where the Colts didn’t need to throw a lot last week, Pittman still put up 14 PPR points. Pittman has been about as consistent WR2 as you can have, scoring at least 14 PPR points in his last four games. Keep him locked into your starting lineups. Downs reinjured his knee last week early in the game against the Panthers. He did not practice on Wednesday of this week so at this point I would consider him questionable at best and would not slot him into a starting lineup spot.
Kylen Granson: Even with Downs leaving early last week, Granson was unable to record a catch. He just isn’t getting enough targets to be start-worthy in any scoring format.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones: Jones has finished as the QB21 or worse in six out of his last eight games. The good thing for Jones this week is the Colts give up the most fantasy points to QBs this year. They are allowing an astonishing 403 passing yards per game and two passing touchdowns per game. If there is ever a week to start Jones in 2QB and SuperFlex leagues and not feel queasy about it, this is the week.
Rhamondre Stevenson/Ezekiel Elliott: It may not seem like it due to the limited rush attempts, but Stevenson has been a top-15 RB in three of his last four games. He has also had the fourth-highest target share percentage of all RBs over the last four weeks. Elliott has gotten 31 carries over the last four games, but hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last two. If he doesn’t score, he is not bringing much fantasy value to you due to his lack of involvement in the receiving game. The Colts only give up 90 yards rushing a game but five receptions per game to RBs. I have Stevenson as a RB2 start this week and Elliott as a bench.
Patriots WRs: Demario Douglas has emerged as a real weapon for the Patriots since the injury to Kendrick Bourne. He has had six-plus targets in his last three games. In the last three weeks he has seen his snaps increase:
Week 7: 62%
Week 8: 77%
Week 9: 82%
He has also had almost a 20% target share in those games. While JuJu Smith-Schuster had six catches last week, he had six total in his previous four games. Against this Colts secondary, I would start Douglas as a WR3 and leave Smith-Schuster on your bench or waiver wire.
Hunter Henry: Henry had an 88% snap share last week, his highest since week 2, and scored for the first time since week 2. He has had nine targets over the last two weeks, catching seven of them. While his yardage totals have not been great in those games, he is a solid streaming start this week against a Colts defense that gives up seven receptions for 75 yards per game to TEs this year.
- Betting Insight
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
With the lack of exciting fantasy players in this game, there isn’t a lot to feel confident about bet-wise in this game, especially factoring in the bad games teams play sometimes in International spots. The Patriots are 3-13 against the spread over their last 16 games. I am just going to take the overall better team with a spread that is less than a field goal.
Lean: Colts -2 (-110) (DraftKings)