November 10, 2023, 4:00 pm
Washington Commanders (4-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-3)
Commanders(+205) @ Seahawks(-250): O/U 44.5
The Washington Commanders (4-5) travel west to face the Seattle Seahawks (5-3). The Commanders’ victory last week over the Patriots keeps them in the NFC wildcard race. The Seahawks were demolished by the Ravens in Baltimore last week. The Commanders will look to continue their success on the offensive side, as the Seahawks look to bounce back from their embarrassing loss.
Leans: 10-26 -9.02u
Bets: 14-22 -9.26u
Main Storylines to Watch
Can the Seahawks bounce back to stay tied in the divisional race? The Seahawks were leading the division prior to their Week 9 loss to the Ravens. The Seahawks seem primed to be at least a wildcard team barring any major collapse, but the division is still very much in play. The Seahawks have a much-needed opportunity for their offense to get back on track against a depleted Commanders defense.
Are the Commanders playoff contenders or pretenders? The Commanders’ offense has been hot as of late, but they were sellers at the deadline. The defense took a hit with the loss of both of their top edge rushers. The Commanders are currently the 8-seed in the NFC. A victory over the Seahawks could provide a solid tie-breaker over them if needed at the end of the season. Howell has a prime opportunity to earn the starting QB role for future years.
Geno Smith: I assume Geno would like to throw away last weeks performance against the Ravens. Despite those struggles, Smith is a top-ten option this week due to the matchup. Washington is a top-three matchup for opposing QBs and they recently lost two of their best pass rushers. Geno is a great streamer or spot starter in this Week 10 matchup.
Kenneth Walker III: The sophomore campaign of KWIII was off to a roaring start, but stumbled a bit in the past two weeks. Ravens defensive front is one of the strongest in the NFL. Walker has been losing touches to Charbonnet as of late but both of the previous two weeks were more pass-heavy games for the Seahawks. Walker should be started as an RB2 in this week. The Washington defense is weaker in defending the pass, so I expect it to be a more pass-heavy approach again.
Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet’s volume has slowly but steadily increased as of late. With the Commanders being more susceptible through the air, Charbonnet could again see an increased number of snaps. He is a great bench stash but a very risky starter.
DK Metcalf: Metcalf has had a disappointing season when compared to his ADP. In the blowout last week against the Ravens Metcalf was third in targets behind JSN and Lockett. Metcalf is still an uber-talented WR and has a great matchup. He should be started as a high-upside RB2.
Tyler Lockett: Lockett has led the team in targets over the past two weeks. This Washington defense is very beatable through the air. If Lockett can continue to get around seven to eight targets, he should be at least a WR3 in this game. For the rest of the season, I see Lockett as a low-end WR3. JSN is continually getting more work, and Metcalf still has the greater physical upside on this team.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has averaged six targets over the past three games. He is slowly getting more involved in the offense. As of now, he is only a bye-week fill-in player due to the volatility in his game, but he is trending up. JSN was widely considered the WR1 of the 2023 draft, but he has two stud WRs ahead of him on the depth chart. If any injury occurs to Lockett or Metcalf, JSN could be a fantasy playoff winner.
Noah Fant: With the level of talent in the WR room, there is not much room for production in the TE room. The Seahawks will look to Fant every once in a while, but the TEs in this offense are mostly used for their blocking prowess.
Sam Howell: Howell went over 300 yards passing again in Week 9 and is currently the QB6 for fantasy. The Commanders have leaned on a pass-heavy approach with their offense. Howell has been a beneficiary of that volume. Howell is a rest-of-season starter in all league types unless he faces a top-five defense. Howell should finish the season as a top-ten fantasy QB.
Brian Robinson: Robinson is currently RB12 on the year in total points. Fantasy owners have been happy when he scores and unsatisfied when he doesn’t. With a relatively high over/under in this matchup, Robinson is a good bet to find the endzone. Therefore, he should be started in all league types.
Antonio Gibson: Gibson is a handcuff for Brian Robinson. He should not be started unless you are super desperate with multiple bye weeks on your team at the position, but he is worth rostering in case Robinson goes down. Gibson has seen a slight increase in touches in the past few weeks.
Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is WR17 on the year and has averaged around eight targets a game for this Washington offense. He will remain a low-end WR2 for the rest of the season. This offense has leaned on the passing game and McLaurin is the top guy in this pass-catching group. He has only scored twice on the year, so I believe he has some positive touchdown regression coming his way. McLaurin has a high floor and he could increase his upside if he finds the end zone more.
Jahan Dotson: Dotson is back! Dotson is a flex-worthy play in this matchup. The Commanders seem happy passing the ball at a heavy volume, therefore Dotson has fantasy value despite being the second or third option in this passing game for the Commanders
Logan Thomas: Thomas has been a solid option at TE. He should not be depended on to win you a week, but he is a great option at TE if you are trying to avoid a dud performance that many other TEs provide on a regular basis. Start Thomas with a TE8 – TE12 expectation for Week 10.
PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.
The Vegas projected score of this game is 25.25 Seahawks to 19.25 Commanders. The Commanders’ passing offense looked great all season. The Commanders’ defense has been below average forcing them into pass-heavy game scripts. The Seahawks are looking to bounce back this week on offense. AJ Brown has dominated the Commanders’ defense, so why can’t his college teammate who has a similar physical profile? I expect DK to go off in this matchup.
Lean: DK Metcalf Rec Yds 70+ (+105) 1u to win 1.05u (DraftKings)
BET: Sam Howell Pass TDs Over 1.5 (+100) 1u to win 1u (DraftKings)